Faith and Reason

2010-09-23T20:48:00.002-05:00

Despising Democrats

I am back, because I must vent. Yelling into the air only scares the cats.

I am a Democrat. In a few weeks when early voting begins, I will vote for lots of Democrats. However, a small part of me will hate doing it.

Why?

Simple. The party is full of stupid, wimps.

In 1986 when the Iran-Contra scandal was revealed. It was known the Ronald Reagan traded arms for hostages and then the money was illegally provided money to anti-communist Nicaraguan guerrillas. Congressional Democrats took impeachment off the table. Ollie North's shredding and their own wimpiness stops it.

From Jan. 2001 through Jan. 2009 they failed make any effort to stop or reveal a single GW Bush executive power overreach or even stop the idiotic tax cut during wartime via filibuster in the Senate. Investigations to even consider if impeachable offenses were committed when the Bushies started data mining via telecoms? Nope. They didn't even bother to stop efforts to undermine habeas corpus or prevent the retroactive lawsuit protection for the telecoms.

Though they managed to pass some stimulus, a health care bill and a middle class tax cut that no one seems to remember. Now, the wimps rule again. It is just too scary to vote to keep the taxes on earnings below $250,000 at current levels and raise it for the earnings above that level. Why? Because Republicans will say nasty things about it or, in my opinion, the Democrats in Congress are just stupid and wimpy. They'll vote on it after the election.

Watch the losses in November and remember how much they worked to earn them.

2010-02-25T09:06:00.024-06:00

Health Care "Summit" Live Blogging

I'm home sick today with a cold. Since my brain doesn't need to be taxed, I figured I can live blog the "summit" at Blair House. I'll also being checking Internet and TV talkers reaction and post some of that too.

1:04 They have started again and Mike Enzi begins with the "cutting Medicare" crap. AGAIN. I'm done. I'm going to sleep and watch post-game later.

12:00 LUNCH! Not sure how much more of this I can take. Time for body language interpretation on CNN. R vs D House members on MSNBC. Afraid to look again at what Fox is doing. I think I'll listen to CSPAN weird callers.

11:44 Eric Cantor is so dumb that he doesn't know that he has no chance taken on points against someone with a working brain like Barack Obama.

11:38 Off topic: My funny mail of the day. The Concerned Women of America sent me mail asking me to fight the "radical homosexual agenda." It has one of the fake surveys with loaded questions aimed at getting you to give you money. Oh, did they send that to the wrong person. This "survey" will now join one from Greenpeace for examples of ridiculously leading questions when I teach polling in American Government for years to come.

By the way, the Concerned Women of America is much more "radical" than any homosexual I have ever met.

11:21 I am now missing the entertainment that would have come from having Michelle Bachmann, Alan Grayson and the other more "interesting" members of Congress.

11:20 Had to go to Fox News to get away from talking heads and hear the summit bloviators.

11:10 Two hours into this and the only things I can tell for sure is 1) the only person in the room who would like to find common ground is Obama; 2) Republicans think "Dr." instead of Rep. or Sen. sounds better today.

11:01 Watching this I think the Dems should just let Obama do all the talking. He takes on each Republican talking point and blows it apart so well while sounding so reasonable. He is demonstrating that he is the best spokesman for the plan. He is also demonstrating why he should have been doing more of that speaking over the past year. I hope he has learned he cannot rely on Dems in Congress to be the frontline troops. He HAS to be.

10:56 I think CNN is running lots of ads so when the Blair House bloviators got to break they can spend long minutes with their panel of talking heads without ads.

10:54 Kyl says, don't raise money to pay for this just do so little that we don't actually need to raise any money.

10:23 Obama actually asks Republicans why they don't like public option. I know this because I've got it streaming via CSPAN. CNN has talking heads and now commercials. MSNBC had commercials but is now back listening to a House Republican not answer the question.

10:20 Steny Hoyer is the first to say "public option." Too bad it isn't going to get in the bill.

10:15 So far no indication that this will be anything more than each side talking past the other. I am waiting for one Republican to suggest something that Democrats haven't said, "it's in the bill."

10:03 I think we are about to have the battle of the poll numbers. It's sound bit time. Oh no, its "Dr." Tom Coburn. Yeah, I want my health care legislation determined by the man who rejects all the science connected to climate change and sees health care as all about fraud and more private sector power.

9:58 CNN goes to commercial and I switch to MSNBC. CNN misses first actual exchange between 2 sides over costs. Yep, those commercials were vital.

9:55 On something completely different, I'm drinking Korean plum tea for my cold. A student gave it to me and it is quite good. Thanks, Haina.

9:48 Harry Reid is coming out feisty today. Verbal slaps back at Alexander. That's fun to watch.

9:35 Alexander says all the Dems and Obama have to do is scrap everything, follow their ideas and renounce reconciliation so that the Republicans have veto power and then bipartisanship will reign. So kind of him.

9:25 Lamar Alexander presents the Republican talking points. He lied early by saying "we want you to succeed." No they don't.

9:20 Obama still thinks 2 parties can agree. Really? The current politics rewards the Republicans for obstruction not compromise.

9:08 The opening statements are on and I expect nothing but platitudes and posturing to start.

2009-08-26T20:19:00.003-05:00

Teddy Kennedy (1932-2009) Part 2

I don't remember Teddy before about 1972. This means that the Teddy I knew was already well known as very flawed man. I never knew him as the "heir to Camelot" as it was seen in the 1960's. I knew him as a respected, liberal Democratic Senator whose personal flaws had probably cost him a chance at the presidency. His name would come up repeatedly as a potential presidential candidate even after his failure in 1980. By the time of his divorce in 1982, his philandering and that of his brothers were well known. He was also well known as a hard and frequent drinker. In other words, my first impressions of Teddy were more as a great sinner than a great man.

In 1980 I did prefer him to Jimmy Carter, probably in part out of my own romanticized view of his lost brothers. I loved his speech before the 1980 convention. I loved his call to not abandon the liberal values that defined the party more than it had when JFK was president. But Teddy wasn't Jack or Bobby. Niether of those men were interested in the legislative branch. Teddy was. He became a senator only a few months after I was born in 1962 when I am sure he thought it very unlikely that he would ever seriously be considered a president and always a president's little brother. He became something Jack and Bobby never were -- a real Senator.

In many memorials I've seen and read today, 1980 is marked as the year that Teddy dedicated himself to the Senate as he gave up the drive for the presidency. I agree that he had released himself from the obligation to run for the presidency after 1980, but to say he became serious about his Senate career only after that date ignores all the efforts between 1962 and 1980 that I posted earlier today. By 1980 Teddy was already 11 years into his effort at universal health care. He had expanded rights and opportunities for many with efforts ranging from Title IX to rights for the disabled. He championed in 1965 what one writer referred to as his greatest accomplishments, a new immigration law that eneded the era of a discriminatory quota system that favored northern Europeans over all others. Teddy helped bring the US the talents of the more diverse population we have today.

What changed in 1980 was American politics. The country turned more conservative. Liberal dreams were replaced with conservative ones that attacked and sought to destroy many of the accomplishments of liberalism. Teddy became "the Liberal Lion" who fought back against Reaganism and all its conservative Republican successors. Yes, he would make Republican friends and be willing to make pragmatic deals with his ideological rivals. In doing so, he would also fiercely try to garner his fellow Democrats to block a reworking of the tax code to be more friendly to corporations and the rich, to preserve the right of women to be free of government intrusion into their decisions to be or not to be pregnant, and to resist the use of government for private gain instead of the greater good. Conservatives never liked Teddy, but as the last clear voice in the Senate for liberalism, he became the first and most persistent target of the direct market fundraising, right-wing radio talk show and op-ed pieces. Through the last 29 years of his life he became a hero to liberals and a devil to conservatives.

Somewhere along the way, Teddy also shed his hard drinking and skirt chasing. I do not know when or how. Maybe it was falling in love with his second wife. Maybe it was the shame of having to testifyin court about his partying at a relative's sexual assault trial. Maybe it was finally growing up as he grew older. Maybe he final heard the better angels of his nature. I don't know. Whatever it was, the party boy retired and Legislator continued.

Teddy's record continued to grow more impressive as the Republicans ruled. He did what he could when he could. Health care reform efforts under Pres. Clinton failed, but a year later he was leading the way with a bill on health insurance portability and a year after that he led the pasage of SCHIP which would enable millions of children to gain health care. He would pass a bill to try to improve education with Pres. George W. Bush, but spend the rest of Bush's presidency demanding the funding that Teddy (and lots of states and school districts) knew was needed to make the program a success and not a burden. He failed to slow W's push to go to war in Iraq but he would lead efforts to adequately armor those we had sent to fight and to provide for those fighters upon their return.

By the time his brain cancer was made public last year and it increasingly became clear that his time on this planet was short, he was simply "the Lion of the Senate." Accept to those for whom hatred has become their main focus, Teddy's ideology had been surpassed by an unprecedented legislative record. Both the late Strom Thurmond and 91-year-old but still serving Senator Robert Byrd have longer Senate careers, but neither can touch Teddy's record of achievement. Byrd was Senate Majority Leader for two years in the late 1980s, but his role among the leadership has (like too many recent Democratic Senate Majority Leaders) no great accomplishments.

So after almost 4 decades of following the career of Teddy Kennedy, what is my conclusion?

Great sinners can be great men.

Truly, Teddy was both. He did great harm to himself and others with thoughtless and, at times, cruel and opportunistic acts. This should not be erased from his obituaries. But in his almost 47 years of public service, his record is one of serving others who lack the privileges that protected him. If Teddy too easily followed the ways of those who consider themselves above the routine rules and morals of those less privileged, he also relentlessly sought to use the powers of government and his power within government to help so many who were not born to or helped by a privilege.

Perhaps (and I always hedge on thoughts such as these), God's mercy towards humans comes from the knowledge that great sinners can be great men and women. And since we are all sinners, we are all capable of greatness. We don't have to match Teddy's Senate record, we just have to remember his example that our sinful natures are no excuse for failing to help others.

Thanks, Teddy.

2009-08-26T11:25:00.002-05:00

Ted Kennedy (1932-2009) Part 1

Below are highlights of Teddy Kennedy's Senate career taken from his Senate website. I'll write something more personal later.

Why He Was “The Lion of the Senate”

1962

Edward M. Kennedy is elected to the United States Senate.

1964

Senator Kennedy makes his maiden speech to the Senate on the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which was signed on July 2, 1964, and outlawed segregation in public accommodations. He also strongly supported the Economic Opportunity Act, a key bill in President Johnson’s war on poverty, which was signed on August 20, 1964.

1965

The first major bill that Senator Kennedy managed on the Senate floor was the Immigration Act of 1965. It was enacted and stood as a major turning point in immigration and civil rights policy because it eliminated discriminatory immigration quotas which favored European immigration, but restricted immigration from other parts of the world. The National Teacher Corps, which awarded scholarships to college students who agreed to teach for at least two years in economically-distressed rural and urban areas after graduation, a program which continues today. He was also a strong and vocal supporter of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, to end discrimination against minorities in voting.

1968

Senator Kennedy was a strong supporter of the Fair Housing Act of 1968, the third major civil rights legislation of the decade after the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965. As a result of Senator Kennedy's championing of bilingual education, the Bilingual Education Act of 1968 was passed by Congress.

1969

Senator Kennedy gives his first speech calling for national health insurance for all Americans. His amendment creating a minimum tax — the so-called “Alternative Minimum Tax” — becomes law, setting a limit on the amount of taxation for middle-income Americans.

1970

Senator Kennedy amended the Voting Rights Act to lower the voting age to 18, laying the basis for a constitutional amendment moving the voting age from 21 to age 18. He was also a leader in enacting the Occupational Health and Safety Act to protect workers on jobs and the Older American Community Service Employment Act. To ease the high cost of home heating, Senator Kennedy actively worked to create a fuel assistance program for low-income persons now known as the Low Income Heating Energy Assistance Program or “LIHEAP”. He was also responsible for legislation laying the basis for the “War on Cancer” by quadrupling funds for cancer research and prevention. When President Nixon attempted to pocket veto Senator Kennedy’s Family Protection of Medicine Act, the Senate won a court decision invalidating the pocket veto and enacting the law.

1971

Senator Kennedy becomes Chairman of the Senate Health Subcommittee. He held a series of field hearings around the country on national health insurance, and is a leader in passing the National Cancer Act to expand research on all aspects of cancer.

1972

Senator Kennedy champions the Meals on Wheels Act, which offers nutritional meals to homebound senior citizens and the Women, Infants, and Children Nutrition Program, known as WIC, which offers food, nutrition counseling, and health services to low-income women, infants, and children. Kennedy was also a key supporter of Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972, which protects women from discrimination in educational institutions and increases opportunities for women to participate in college sports.

1974

After the CIA-backed military coup that toppled democratic government in Chile and brought General Pinochet to power, Senator Kennedy leads the fight to cut off U.S. military aid to Chile. His amendment to the foreign aid bill marked the first time that Congress had ended military aid to another nation. Kennedy and Wilbur Mills, Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, introduced comprehensive legislation providing national health insurance.

1975

Senator Kennedy was an original cosponsor of the Education for All Handicapped Children Act, which later became the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act and requires a free and appropriate public education for children with disabilities in every state.

1978

Senator Kennedy led the successful effort to deregulate the airline industry, enabling airlines to set competitive rates and reduce costs for consumers.

1980

Senator Kennedy introduced the Civil Rights for Institutionalized Persons Act, which enforced the constitutional rights of persons in government institutions such as the elderly, the disabled, the mentally ill, and the incarcerated. The Act ensures humane living conditions and also protected the religious practices of the institutionalized. Senator Kennedy also authored the Refugee Act of 1980, setting a standard for who gets political asylum in the United States and which refugees are rescued from persecution.

1982

Senator Kennedy sponsors the Job Training Partnership Act to educate and train the nation's front-line workforce and reinstates the Summer Job Program. With Senator Mark Hatfield, he proposed a Nuclear Freeze Resolution to halt the nuclear arms race.

1984

Senator Kenedy is a strong supporter of the Comprehensive Crime Control Act and its major reform of federal sentencing standards to end widespread disparities in the sentences of similar offenders.

1985

Senator Kennedy introduces the Anti-Apartheid Act to impose economic sanctions against South Africa in response to pressure that government to end legalized racial discrimination in that country. The Act ultimately won broad bipartisan support in Congress and was enacted into law when Congress overrode President Reagan’s veto.

1986

Senator Kennedy sponsors several bills to assist persons with disabilities, including the Employment Opportunities for Disabled Americans Act, which made work incentives for disabled individuals part of the Social Security Act; the Handicapped Children’s Protection Act, overturning a Supreme Court decision and enabling courts to award attorneys fees to parents of children with disabilities in litigation under the Education Act; and the Education of the Handicapped Act Amendments, authorizing grants for early learning for infants and toddlers with disabilities.

1987

Senator Kennedy led the opposition to the nomination of Robert Bork to the Supreme Court.

1988

Senator Kennedy introduced the Fair Housing Act Amendments to extend the law to prohibit discrimination towards people with disabilities in the sale or rental of housing. Kennedy was also a sponsor of legislation that provided funds to all 50 states to raise awareness about the uses of assistive technology to significantly improve the lives of people with disabilities. Kennedy also introduced legislation to require companies to give sixty-days’ notice to employees before closing a plant that would cost fifty or more workers their jobs — the so-called “WARN Act” whose provisions are in effect today.

1989

Senator Kennedy won passage of the National Military Child Care Act, which established the Defense Department’s child care system that is still viewed as one of the best in the country today.

1990

On July 26, 1990, the Americans with Disabilities Act was enacted into law. Introduced by Senator Kennedy, the Act prohibits discrimination against any qualified individual with a disability in job application procedures, hiring or discharge, compensation, advancement or training. Senator Kennedy was also sponsor of the Immigration Act of 1990 to expand immigration quotas to reunite families in the U.S. and to meet economic needs, which was signed into law. Senator Kennedy also introduced, with Senator Hatch, the Ryan White CARE Act, which provides emergency relief to the thirteen cities most affected by the AIDS epidemic, and substantial assistance to all states to develop effective and cost-efficient AIDS care programs, particularly for early diagnosis and home care. Kennedy was also the lead sponsor of the immigration reforms, which increased quotas for family immigration, established a diversity visa program and a temporary safe haven for persons fleeing oppressive governments.

1991

Senator Kennedy was the chief sponsor of the Civil Rights Act of 1991, which strengthened existing protections and remedies available under federal civil rights laws, including the provision of remedies for intentional discrimination and harassment in the workplace. Senator Kennedy also supported a bill to repeal the ban on women serving as combat aviators, making it possible for women to have a full and complete role in our national defense.

1992

Senator Kennedy’s action on the Summer Jobs for Youth Program resulted in a $500 million supplemental appropriation for summer jobs for 300,000 additional youths. Amid serious concerns over the quality of mammography, Kennedy helped pass the Mammography Quality Standards Act to guarantee the safety and accuracy of mammograms and to encourage their use.

1993

Senator Kennedy helped establish the Direct Lending program which allowed the U.S. Department of Education to provide low-cost loans to college students to cover education expenses. In addition, the Senator sponsored the National and Community Service Trust Act, which created AmeriCorps and the Corporation for National and Community Service to expand opportunities for Americans to serve their communities, including education grants for students who agree to volunteer for service after college.

1994

Senator Kennedy’s leadership brought about the passage of the landmark Family and Medical Leave Act and the School-to-Work Opportunities Act, which provided seed money for local school-to-work programs designed and operated by local business, education, community and labor leaders. He also sponsored the Human Services Reauthorization Act, which expanded funding to communities, put Head Start on a path to reach all eligible children and expanded it to cover pregnant women and young children in the 0-3 age group, and reauthorized the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program to help families pay their heating bills. Kennedy was also a leader in the passage of the Crime Act, which funded 100,000 new police officers, imposed new penalties for crimes involving gangs or firearms, and created the Police Corps, a program that provides college scholarships for talented young persons in return for their commitment to serve as police officers in their communities. The Senator’s biggest disappointment of his years in the Senate was the adjournment of Congress this year without passing President Clinton’s call health reform legislation.

1996

Senator Kennedy and Senator Nancy Kassebaum sponsored the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act, which guarantees the continuation of health insurance coverage for the millions of Americans who change jobs or lose their jobs.

1997

With Senator Hatch, Senator Kennedy led the successful effort to enact the major Children’s Health Insurance Program, which has brought quality health care to millions of children in low and moderate income families.

1999

Senator Kennedy and Senator Jeffords also increased job training opportunities for unemployed and at risk by passing the “Work Incentives Improvement Act.”

2000

Senator Kennedy is the lead sponsor of the Minority Health and Health Disparities Research and Education Act, which addresses the lead to pervasive health disparities between minorities and other Americans, and also included an authorization for significant resources to improve the delivery of health care to minorities. Kennedy also sponsored the Pediatric Graduate Medical Education Act, which provides essential support for training programs at children’s hospitals across the country. Senator Kennedy also led the successful effort to provide federal compensation and medical benefits to Department of Energy employees who become ill because of their dangerous conditions at work.

2001

Senator Kennedy works with President Bush to pass the landmark No Child Left Behind Act, which contains substantial reforms to help close the achievement gaps among students in public schools and improve the quality of education for all students. Following the attacks of September 11th, 2001, Senator Kennedy called together disaster relief and mental health organizations to plan a coordinated response to meet the mental health needs of families of victims of the tragedy.

2002

Senator Kennedy was one of the first in Congress to speak out against going to war with Iraq. He was one of 23 Senators who voted against the war and continued to be one of its leading critics. Senator Kennedy introduced the bipartisan Bioterrorism Preparedness Act to help the country prevent, prepare for, and respond to bioterrorism and other public health emergencies. Senator Kennedy was the lead Democratic sponsor of the Enhanced Border Security and Visa Reform Act to strengthen the security of our borders and improve our ability to screen foreign nationals and deter potential terrorists. To establish positive ties with the people of the Muslim world, Senator Kennedy and Senator Richard Lugar established a program to provide scholarships for secondary school students from countries with significant Muslim populations and enabling the students spend up to one year living in the United States with American host families. Since the program began, 2,700 students from more than 30 Muslim countries have participated in it.

2003

Senator Kennedy led the effort to strengthen law enforcement in case of exploitation or abduction of children. His legislation provided funds for AMBER Alert notification systems along U.S. highways, and grants to states to improve communication.

2004

Senator Kennedy was a lead sponsor of bipartisan legislation to reauthorize the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act. The legislation included bipartisan improvements in special education services for six and a half million students in the nation, including 30,000 additional special education teachers, better education training, and expanded technologies for disabled children. Senator Kennedy also sponsored the Project Bioshield Act, to enable medical and biotechnology researchers to create more effective defenses to biological threats.

2006

Senator Kennedy sponsors the Family Opportunity Act, which enables states to expand Medicaid coverage for children with special needs and enables low- and middle-income families with disabled children to purchase coverage under Medicaid. For many disabled children, Medicaid is the only health insurance program offering sufficient benefits to cover the required care, such as physical therapy and medical equipment. After the disasters at the Sago and Alma Mines, Senator Kennedy successfully championed major reforms of the nation’s mine safety laws including updated technology for mines, stricter safety standards, and stricter enforcement. Senator Kennedy was also was a lead sponsor of the Pension Protection Act, the largest reform of the pension system in three decades, which strengthened the financial condition of pension plans, improved their transparency, and added new worker and taxpayer protections.

2007

Senator Kennedy led the effort that renewed the Ryan White Care Act with greater focus on prevention, chronic care, quality of life, and new and emerging therapies. Congress also passed legislation proposed by Senator Kennedy to strengthen FDA’s regulatory authority over drugs after they are approved. The bill was termed by experts to be the most significant strengthening of drug safety in a century. Senator Kennedy’s College Cost Reduction and Access Act authorized the largest increase in student aid since the GI bill in 1944 and established a loan forgiveness program to allow more college graduates to go into public service.

2008

Senator Kennedy worked with Senator Enzi, with the help of Senator Mikulski, to pass the Higher Education Opportunity Act, which reauthorized the Higher Education Act for the first time in a decade. This legislation focused on four major areas: expanding grant aid for the neediest students; addressing the ethical scandals in the student loan marketplace; simplifying the application process for Federal financial aid; and holding colleges more accountable for their costs. After more than 10 years of effort, Senator Kennedy and Senator Domenici worked together to enact the Mental Health Parity Act, requiring insurance companies to provide benefits for mental illnesses equal to the benefits for physical illnesses and assuring equity for 113 million Americans. Senator Kennedy also led the enactment of the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act, prohibiting insurers and employers from discriminating against people due to their genes.

2009

Senator Kennedy championed the health and employment provisions of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, which included incentives for the adoption of health information technology, provisions to expand access to unemployment insurance and to help those who lose their jobs to keep their health insurance, and investments to improve the quality of health. Senator Kennedy was also a leader in passing the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act to restore workers’ ability to fight pay discrimination, the first major legislation signed by President Obama. In addition, Senator Kennedy and Senator Hatch, led the enactment of the Serve America Act, which expands service opportunities for Americans of every age. Senator Kennedy has long been a leader in seeking to strengthen federal hate crime law. Senator Kennedy’s Health Committee was also the first committee in Congress to pass comprehensive health reform legislation called for by President Obama — the Affordable Health Choices Act that will reduce health costs, protect individuals’ choice in doctors and plans, and assure quality and affordable health care for all Americans.

2009-08-18T19:23:00.009-05:00

Last Full Day in DC - Tuesday

Last full day of tourist fun. Disappointment came when I learned that my White House tour wouldn't happen. It is all Justin's fault. I knew it needed planning ahead and he didn't remember to follow up on my early pestering. He says it is a new excuse to come back again. That's true, but boy is he better prepare for serious pestering for weeks before that trip.

Started today at Ford's Theatre. It has been fully restored and actual has about 5 plays a year. Went through the museum before getting the ranger's talk telling the story of the assassination. Visitors are rarely allowed in the actual box, but you can see it pretty well from the balcony and, as usual, the park rangers do a great job detailing the event. I skipped the trip across the street to see where Lincoln died. Instead, I talked to a ranger about when the box gets visited, for example, by political VIPs. He kind of hedged on who would for sure get to see it, but he did tell me that big donors could very probably get into the box. He explained that they do open it at times to the general public, but it is very tight and hard to get people in and out. He also told me how they have to close when there are stage productions in rehearsal and how that when the president comes for an annual event held at the theatre it results in closing the place for a full month. I love talking to park rangers. They know really neat stuff.

Next I headed off to Union Station to meet up with my grad school friend Neil who works for GAO these days. I'd not seen him in years. We were to meet at a place across the street from the station in the same building as the Postal Museum. (No Janet, I didn't go to the postal museum.) Before he got there I had time to see what the railroad station looked like in its conversion to a mall. They've done a very nice job. That station still serves the Metro and Amtrak and the mall is quite full and very busy. Kansas City could probably learn from it for its Union Station. The KC Union Station is nice, but has nothing on this lively place.

After lunch and a great visit with Neil, I walked with him back to the GAO and he told me the best way to get to my next stop...The International Spy Museum. This is a private museum and costs $18 to go through. It really wasn't worth the money. It did have some neat displays of actual spy stuff, but, in general, if you knew the basic history of spying this wasn't going to add much to you knowledge. No real exploration of the gray areas of spying at all. A bit on the excesses of the Soviet Union and the Red Scare in the US during the post-World War II days but little else. If this was a Smithsonian museum it would raise questions of the conflict between secrecy and democracy. Best thing I saw in the museum was something I saw while standing in line to buy a ticket. It was a statistic stating that over 2,000,000 Federal officials had the authority to mark something "secret." So if like to look at the spy toys go ahead. If a more questioning view of spying is desired, then skip this one. Just go to the museum store which has street access. Buy a spy movie or TV show DVD. Get a Spy v Spy t-shirt or, as I did, get your own folder stamped "Top Secret."

After the disappointment of a private museum it was back to public space. It has been a couple of decades since I've been to the National Archives and there is more to it now. There is still the Declaration, original Articles of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights to see under 21st Century preservation displays that allows them to be out all the time. Plus, next to them is information on questions that went into the Constitution and events such as the Marbury v Madison rule and the addition of the Civil War Amendments changed the Constitution. However, there is also a wonderful display called "The Public Vaults" that gives you an idea of all the materials within the Archives. It includes items that range from letters from Washington and records of other Revolutionary War Army, detailed records that recorded who among the Cherokee were forced to move along the "Trail of Tears," and archived records of the relatively new but constantly changing whitehouse.gov. Great stuff.

Finally the Archives had a display called "BIG." This included a survey map of the Gettysburg battlefield that was in about 15 sections that took up most of the floor of a room. "The Long Telegram" was displayed in full as was the Articles of Confederation. Not surprisingly, those failed Articles are much longer than the current Constitution even with 27 amendments. But my favorite is pictured below.

At the end of the day I walked up the mall toward the Capitol on my way to Sen. Dorgan's office in the Hart Building where Justin works. As I did, I kept looking back toward the Washington Monument and remembering the millions of folks who crowded into the mall for Obama's inauguration. It was very cool on TV and in pictures, but to stand on that space and see how far it is from the Capitol to the Washington Monument and how it was full of people is simply amazing. I decided as I got to the reflecting pool that I needed to finally figure out who was on the statue facing the mall. It is easy to see it was a Civil War Monument, but I couldn't tell who was the general on the horse. Not surprisingly it is Grant. This makes perfect sense unlike other things around the Capitol. Directly to the north across the street from the Senate and just before you get to the Senate Office Buildings is a park with a clock tower. In front of that tower is a statue of a modern-dressed man. I had to go find out who got this prime piece of property.

It was Robert Taft.

Robert Taft. Really.

Known as "Mr. Republican" and once a real favorite among anti-New Deal, isolationist, conservative Republicans, he may have been the first Republican to begin the tradition of calling the President of the United States a socialist. He did serve in both the House and Senate, but he is not known for accomplishing much. He would have been one of the "Do Nothing" Republicans who helped re-elect Harry Truman. Okay, that was a good thing, but it didn't rate a place next to the Capitol. Did he get it because he died while serving as Senate Majority Leader just as President Garfield got his Capitol Hill statue because he got shot by a nut case? I suspect this may be it as a website on the memorial indicates that the effort to raise money for the memorial was passed only two years after he died.

Clearly then the goal of a politician who wants to get a statue is to die suddenly while you are still serving. You wonder how JFK only got his name on a Center for Performing Arts.

Enough of that... on to some photos:

Taft's Bathtub in a display of "BIG" things in the National Archives

One of Nixon's tape recorders. Hurray for good evidence.

Lincoln's Box at Ford's Theater. He sat on the right.

Booth's .44 caliber gun that he left in the box.

Actual poster from Lincoln's re-election campaign in 1864.

2009-08-17T21:47:00.005-05:00

DC Roundup: Busy Monday

Lots and lots of walking today. Started at the Vietnam Memorial then the Lincoln Memorial then the FDR Memorial. These are my 3 favorite monuments in DC, so starting there was natural. After the FDR memorial, I walked around the Tidal Basin, on what I called my own Wilbur Mills Memorial Walk, to the Jefferson Memorial which I had not bothered to go see before. Jefferson is such a contradiction of his own words, that it was a bit odd to read them and a review of his life that details those contradiction.

It was then time to see a memorial new to the mall -- the World War II Memorial. It is very good. It fits into the mall very well and is a fairly simply manages to honor those who died and who served at home and abroad. I like the pillars marking each state with a simple wreath to honor those who served. A banch of gold stars in front of still water honor the over 400,000 Americans who died. Fountains and other moving water symbolizes life and its triumph over the horrors of war. There are some good quotes from Truman and familiar ones from FDR and Eisenhower. No weapons of war appear anywhere only lists of battles in the Pacific and Atlantic theaters. I imagine some miss the meanings of the wreaths on the state pillars, but no one can miss the meaning of the gold stars.

Next, it was time to visit the Holocaust Museum. It was almost overwhelming. Waiting for my turn to begin the trip through the 3 floors of exhibits, I viewed a temporary exhibit on Nazi propoganda and how it worked so well and how Hitler used very modern methods for the time to sell Nazism through appeals to German nationalism. Plus, there was a exhibit using a child's view of the Holocaust. With that start I headed up the elevator. The first floor is the rise of Nazism and most of that was familiar to me so that wasn't too bad. It got harder as the museum used photos of individuals and names of destroyed Jewish communities. Next was the ghettos followed by the "mobile death squads." After one floor and a half floors your heart is heavy. What follows is a walk through a freight car and step into the horrors of concentration camps. Personal items sorted precisely for no clear reason. Tattoos, details on slave labor, wooden beds from Auschwitz, and a detailed model of the death chambers with empty Zyclon B cannisters and a death chamber door across from it. No words can truly capture it. I think the wooden beds had the most impact on me. You see the pictures, but having a sample of them before you is just...horrifyingly sad. Luckily the last floor is on resistance, rescuers and the triumph of those who survived. It doesn't erase the sense of loss you feel at that point, but does keep you from leaving the place wondering if human beings are redeemable.

After all that it was time for a break. I headed for the Smithsonian castle and had a late lunch. It was good to sit and eat and rest from it all. Plus, it was my first time inside the castle and I was curious about it. The best part was the review of what used to be displayed over time in the building. The pictures of the old displays plus some of the items still there. Very cool. Behind the castle is a beautiful botanical garden. It even smelled good.

Next it was a walk down to the American Indian Museum. Didn't spend much time there, but it is a very cool building. It is sandstone and design to reflect the way natural forces shape the landscape. Outside of the building are all sorts of flora that almost separates this building from the rest of the mall. It was simply lovely.

After that quick stop, I called Justin to see if there was time for me to go to Air & Space. I had about an hour and 45 minutes before I need to meet up with him at the Hart Senate Office Building for the train ride back to Arlington. I did a quick tour of my favorite museum in the world. Took pictures of old favorites such as the Wright plane (now a part of its own room full of info on the Wright Brothers), the Spirit of St. Louis, the Apollo command capsule and replicas of the lunar module and Skylab. The contribution of the Russians to space flight is fully included now that the Cold War is over. Lots of great displays and explanations of what they did and did not do well. Below you will find a picture of Apollo-Soyuz, the first docking of American and Russian space vehicles. I must say that there 1960s space suits didn't really look lunar ready. I also got a photo of the first human vehicle traveling beyond the solar system. Voyager, like the Mars rovers, is an example of great human engineering. I do hope some alien brings it back to us some day.

That was tourism for Monday. Feet and legs were very tired, but some muscle relaxant has helped. It was also helpful that Justin took me out for my birthday dinner to a great steak placed called Ray's, here in Arlington. Good food always helps.

Tomorrow I hit some more spots and hope to get my White House or Capitol tour. I am also meeting my old grad school friend Neil for lunch at Washington's old Union Station. He works for the GAO now and loves it.

Finally, I wanted to add two things I've thought of while here. First, this trip marks 25 years to the month of my first trip to DC. My mom and dad drove me to grad school and we spent a few days with Linda and David in Baltimore. One of those days we went to DC. The 1984 Olympic team was in town. Tomorrow will mark the first time I've gotten to full days of tourism here. Second, there are way to many places here named for Ronald Reagan. My current count is 5 if you include National Airport in Virginia. It is simply ridiculous. It only demonstrates the power of Republican money for there to be so many. Now there is an official committee to create his monument. This leads to only one conclusion: Harry S Truman needs a monument in DC. If you want to talk about who contributed the most to winning the Cold War, Harry wins hands down --- NATO, the Marshall Plan, the policy of Containment top his list. No one did more.

Now a few photos:

Franklin and Falla

Eleanor Roosevelt

I think you know this one

Vest worn by NASA Flight Director during Apollo 13 (his wife always made him one for each mission)

Voyager replica

2009-08-16T12:08:00.003-05:00

DC Vacation_Sunday Report

Got to Arlington Friday night. Easy traveling even with one hour delay getting out of Minneapolis. Bit of trouble coordinating 2 bags on wheels (using a backpack with wheels) and the escaltor. I tumbled at the top of one and received a lovely scrap/rug burn on my right knee and had a chunk of skin partially scrapped off the left knee. No major damage. Left knee looks gross as it heals under loose skin, but I'm not taking that skin off until it heals underneath. Luckily, Justin had gauze pads at his house and we got to the grocery store to pick up all needed supplies. It didn't deter us having a very good dinner at a Thai place right across the street from his apartment building. Foolish man had actually never eaten there.

Saturday I slept until 10 and then we took the train to DC. Had lunch at a Belgian restaurant. I had the Belgian version of French toast. It was more of waffle than the thick French toast I'm used to, but it was very good. Then went to wander around Eastern Market. Eastern Market is the oldest public market in DC. It is the market for the Capitol Hill neighborhood. The old building had a big fire that looked like the end of the market, but a great partnership between community activists and the local government rebuilt and restored the building. It was teeming with folks on a Saturday afternoon.

Justin and I did a quick visit to the American History Museum and toured the section on the presidency and a special section on Lincoln. Then he bought me dinner at a very nice Indian place called Rasika, where I had a Lamb dish that was excellent. After all the heat and walking I was quite hungry. Drank lots of water too. We finished DC for the evening seeing Ponyo. It is another great animated movie from the Japanese animation master Hayao Miyazaki. If you love animated movies, you need to see this man's films.

Sunday is a quieter day. Slept late. Had lunch at a Five Guy's Burgers and Fries which Obama loves. Not a place for those with peanut allergies. They use peanut oil for the fries and have a box of free shelled peanuts to munch on as you wait for your food. Good burger made to your specifications. Then a stop at a used CD and DVD shop which I saw and Justin hadn't yet discovered in his part of Arlington. Now I write this, plot tomorrow's tourist mania, and escape the heat for awhile. May go to another movie tonight. It will be the sci-fi film District 9.

I'll post pictures when I take them. I didn't take the camera yesterday. I'll have it tomorrow and Tuesday. I know where the train station is and where to get off. I'll look like all the other sweating tourists among the monuments and museums. It is going to be great fun.

2009-08-02T03:09:00.001-05:00

Movies to See (0r Not)

This is for a fan of my reviews. In it I'll tell you what I think of "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince," "Public Enemies," and "The Proposal."

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I'll start with "The Proposal" since it is the simplest of the 3 films. If you are looking for a simple, pleasant, funny romantic comedy, this will do the trick. No great meaning is connected to this one. No original themes or techniques, just a cute premise of the obnoxious boss needing t0 stay legal and the assistant willing (for whatever reason) to be the ticket to the green card. I think what I liked best about the connection between the couple was that once the "arrangement" was made, the assistant (the male this time) was able to be more of an equal and stand up to the exceedingly domineering boss. The boss was, of course, a complete bitch to start. It is an old formula. First you hate, even when it is Sandra Bullock, and then you begin to like. The family in Alaska is also fun mainly because of Betty White. No matter how old she gets she stays funny. I would say this movie is a rental or a cheap theater showing unless you just feel the need for a gentle romantic comedy.

"Public Enemies" is not gentle. It is a rather blunt look at the end of the career of John Dillinger. Dillinger's criminal life is not romanticized. He does not live well. He uses women as shields after robbing banks and he doesn't much care about who dies as long as it is not him or one of his close friends in crime. The only potential romanticized part is Dillinger's relationship with Billie Frechette. Their relationship is portrayed as a true romance. Or, at least, as much as a romance as Dillinger was capable was having. She, in fact, faces police torture for him and ends up in prison. I have no idea if this is a true reflection of the feelings between them. Johnny Depp is brilliant, as usual, as Dillinger. There is no deep psychological exploration of the killer. There are a few lines that Depp delivers on his past, but mostly Depp plays him as a bank robber who does what he does because he is good at it. No other reason is provided and, I doubt, that any other reason is closer to the truth. I enjoyed watching Christian Bale's Melvin Purvis in part, because Bale finally put aside the growling voice he seemed addicted to since he began playing Batman. Again, no background on Purvis is offered except the idea that he was the type of FBI agent Hoover wanted to feature in the FBI even though he needed rougher, more experienced men to "get his man." Billy Crudup is excellent as J. Edgar Hoover. He plays both the determined bureaucrat seeking power and the sense of creepiness that goes with Hoover. If ever a man represented both the light and dark of those pursuing criminals, it was J. Edgar Hoover. The most intriguing small character was Giovanni Ribisi's Alvin Karpis. He only appears in 2 scenes, but Ribisi's talent still grabs your attention to what is clearly a gangster with much higher than average intelligence, but whose clothing and demeanor indicated that he hadn't made a great success of his criminal life. I was very interested in him and would like to see Ribisi reprising the role in another film.

This is a movie about men. The women featured in the film are only their for the comfort of the men. They play no other role. Given that it is about gangsters and cops, that didn't bother me. It was the 1930's after all. In fact, the only part of the movie that bothered me was a rather ridiculous scene toward the end where Dillinger casually walks into the FBI office where those hunting him work. It is a time a day when very few "G-Men" are in attendance and no one seems to mind his presence or recognize him at all. Those who are there are listening to a Cubs game. He asks for the score. It turns out the the screenwriters weren't baseball fans as the Cubs were playing the Yankees on this July day. It was just one more mistake in a bad scene.

Ultimately, I think this film biggest effect on how it lead me to get the book to read. The book covers the entire original "War on Crime" with many more gangsters besides Dillinger. The author had access to newly opened FBI files that offer interesting tidbits. I'm only on Chapter 3 because I'm mostly reading "Nixonland." That political criminal and his cohorts has more of my attention right now. (If you want to understand why Republicans are obsessed with trying to exploit all possible white resentment, read "Nixonland.") I am interested to see if the movie's implication that Frank Nitti and the Chicago mob was key to nailing Dillinger is true.

This isn't a fun movie, but Hollywood really doesn't do good gangster movies any more, but this is one. It is a movie worth the price of a matinee.

Finally there is "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" another "worth full price and I'll buy the DVD" addition to the series.

First I have to say that I love the books and I love the movies. There are some who only like one or the other. Me, I enjoy the different ways each manage to touch your imagination. J.K. Rowling's books after the first two are really much too involved to be fully captured in a film. Instead, the producers have chosen to focus on a particular part of each story. For example, in "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire" it was all about the Tri-Wizard Tournament and other subplots from the book are dropped. The same is done in this film. The film's main plot is aimed at leading up to Dumbledore's death. Horcruxes, Harry's building feelings for Ginny, the continuing missed romantic opportunities between Hermione and Ron, and the rising power of Voldemort in the wizard world are there, but not in the detail of the book. Even Harry's exploration of Voldemort's memories and the potion book owned by "the Half-Blood Prince" are truncated. These are choices that must be made in film. Even with all that is lost, the movie is 2 and 1/2 hours long and it isn't a slow 2 and 1/2 hours.

This film does what it must to set up what will be 2 films to cover "The Deathly Hallows" and in my second viewing of the film I noticed a few subtle hints of what is to come that those who know the last book are better able to pick up. I'll leave those to viewer/reader to find.

The two alterations that intrigued me involved Harry and Ginny and the greatest double agent in history-- Severus Snape. The scene when Harry and Ginny share a chaste kiss in the "Room of Requirement" (a great idea I'd like on my campus) alters what happens in the book and may alter what will happen in the final film. In the book, the potion book is hidden by Harry alone next to a tiara that is a horcrux. Finding it comes from Harry remembering where he hid the potions book. But here, Ginny hides the book and has Harry keep his eyes closed "so he won't be tempted." This means that she will be needed to find the tiara and could then become part what is a very exciting scene in "Deathly Hallows." I am hoping this means Ginny will be featured more in the final two films that she is in the book.

Then there is Snape. The film alters the death of Dumbledore in key ways. Gone is the paralyzing spell by Dumbledore on Harry under the Invisibility Cloak. Instead Harry is made to pledge to Dumbledore to stay hidden and just as he is about to break the pledge and act, he is stopped by Snape. Snape asks and receives Harry's silence before he enters the tower and performs the difficult act of killing Dumbledore. Listen carefully to Alan Rickman's voice as he casts the killing spell. The emotion in his voice reflecting what he is doing is there. Why the changes? I'm not sure. Either way it plays, it leaves Harry feeling exceedingly guilty over Dumbledore's death and his hatred for Snape will not be alleviated until he knows the full truth. I do think Harry's guilt makes more sense in the way the movie does it. Harry's guilt over being paralyzed under a spell is a bit too much. Feeling guilt from failing to act as the scene played out in the movie makes more sense. He hesitates. For some reason he stays still after Snape (his enemy) leaves and only watches as Dumbledore dies.

I have heard/read complaints that Dumbledore's death lacked the emotional depth it should have had. Some have argued it comes from the changes to the scene. Others say it is because the funeral is skipped. For me, I think it was because I knew it was coming and because a film cannot spend the pages dwelling on the death like a book can. I do think they missed out on using Fawkes to express the feelings of the death of Dumbledore. I would have had his cry of grief throughout the scene with Dumbledore's body. The emotional point for me was the lighting of the wands. I loved that. I teared up both times. I also like how the light obliterated the Death Mark. Well done.

Finally, I found it interesting how much humor returned to this Potter film. Humor has lessened in the films as the story has gotten darker. This is understandable, but it was also missed. Given the darkness that is to follow, I'm rather glad they returned to more humor. Ron's obsessive girlfriend, Lavender Brown, Jim Broadbent's marvelous Slughorn and Daniel Radcliffe drunk on "liquid luck" are great fun. Given the true terror of a hexed Katie Bell and the grasping inferi along with Dumbledore's death, the humor was greatly appreciated by this viewer.

I must conclude by saying that I know of no other 6 film series which has done as well. Nor has a series adapted books so well without losing their way. The 6th film heads us toward the final challenges and confrontations to come. For this fan, it led me to watch the first 5 films again. It is always wonderful to get caught up in that universe. It was also fun to watch the actors as young children again. By the time "Deathly Hallows, Part 1" is released in November 2010 the three lead actors will all be in their early 20s. When Part 2 is released in July 2011 we will have watched these actors for ten years. Their careers are unlikely to ever match this run, but they can be assured that they gave back in full measure for the chance offered to them as children. God bless who ever was the genius casting director who found them.

2009-05-08T17:52:00.002-05:00

Time for a Movie Review

Enough of floods, wars, recessions or other thoughts of real life. Time to escape to the movies. I saw the new Star Trek movie this afternoon. Following the spoiler space I'll tell you why I loved this escape to the world of James T. Kirk, Spock and the rest of the gang.

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When I heard that Paramount was doing a "re-start" movie for Star Trek with new actors playing Kirk, Spock, etc., I was wary. The original cast has become iconic over the last 40 years. Plus, Paramount had hired the guy who did "Lost" to do it. JJ Abrams' "Lost" lost me in the first season when a polar bear showed up on the island with the airplane crash victims. I put the movie out of my head and have not bothered to follow any of the buildup beyond noticing a few casting news notes and watching trailers. When Zachary Quinto was announced as Spock, I was interested because he plays a great villain on "Heroes." He is so good in the part, they can never kill off his murderous character. If you can do that, you can handle being Spock. I also felt better after seeing the first trailer and then, last fall, seeing a new JJ Abrams TV show called "Fringe." It's a great mad scientist TV show. I love a good mad scientist. So, I had more hope and planned to watch, but I did skip the opening night geek gathering. Instead I made it a way to begin the weekend and got to watch the rebirth of a movie franchise.

First, for all the fans of the original Star Trek series, this will not offend thee. There is no attempt to totally revamp the characters or change who matters most. The is still about Kirk and Spock followed by Bones, Uhura, Sulu, Chekov and Scotty. In fact, Chekov still has the same silly accent. Uhura still has a ridiculous short skirt. Starfleet is still described as a force for peace early on but the plot features has plenty of stuff blowing up as always.

I liked all the actors playing these characters. Zachary Quinto has the hardest job making the half-Vulcan, half-human Spock new again. They played up Kirk's wild boy side in this one. He is a bad boy in Iowa and a bad boy in Starfleet. One thing I liked was how the movie fleshed out the other four characters a bit more. We learn how McCoy became Bones and why a man who so clearly hates space travel is in Starfleet. We learn that Uhura has incredible abilities in both languages and in hearing in greater depth and detail than others. We learn that Sulu can pilot like Han Solo; Chekov is 17-year-old math genius; and Scotty invented the way to beam people and objects much farther and while they are moving. The inability for the transporter to hold on tomovie objects is actually a crucial plot pont.

The basic story is about family and friends. This is a classic theme in Star Trek for all the crews of all the Enterprises through the decades. It is fun here to see how they become friends and how they first get to the Enterprise. Plus, this Enterprise has Captain Pike at command. This is one of the nods to fans who know the details. There are more obvious nods and less obvious ones. Makes the movie fun for Trekkers of all kinds without alienating fans who lack the backstory. Or, for those who remember the first movie, it is aimed at a broad audience not just those who worship at the feet of Gene Rodenberry and want to spend hours afterward trying to figure out the meaning of the bald woman who took time away from the characters we love.

The movie begins with the birth of James Tiberius Kirk in the middle of a battle with a monstrous Romulan ship appearing out of a "black hole" that just appears in front of the USS Kelvin. Kirk's dad dies so others can escape. Kirk's psychological response to this is a reckless nature and constant refusal to lose at bar fights, chasing women or the Kobayashi Maru. We also get scenes of Spock growing up. From these we learn that Vulcan schools have bullies and the Vulcan view of humans as inferior. This is illustrated by a Vulcan elder congratulating Spock's accomplishments "despite your disadvantages." The money also went to casting Spock's parents not Kirk's. Kirk's parents are unknowns. Spock's are Winona Ryder and Ben Cross. Winona made up to be old is fine. I did notice they kept the old costuming for her from the orignial series but with a weird chest protector. Ben Cross is a great actor and I hope we see more of him as the sequels follow.

Once at Starfleet, Kirk is still the bad boy and Spock is already a commander. Then Romulans attack Vulcan and somehow the only folks Starfleet have to fill space on 8 (I think) starships, including the brand new USS Enterprise NCC-1701, are Starfleet Academy cadets. It seems the entire fleet is in some sector far, far away. You'll enjoy how Kirk ends up on the Enterprise and get a hint of something surprising about Uhura. I'll leave those alone for anyone reading this who hasn't seen it.

The movie now moves into the faster paced space adventure mode but doesn't abandon the humor or the continuing character reveals. Plus, the story of how the Romulan ship ended up where and when it was allows for a time line "reset" that sets this version on its own "alternate universe." It is right in the script. You can just hear the writers shouting "so shut up about any 'you can't do that because in episode...'" The continuity book just got a whole lot smaller.

This story even builds a bit on Star Trek:Nemesis storyline with Leonard Nimoy's Ambassador Spock on Romulus. Nimoy plays Spock one more time and even meets his "alternate" self. But before that Vulcan is destroyed; Spock maroons Kirk on a Star Trek version of Hoth complete with strange animals to chase him; and Scotty finally comes aboard. I did think it took way too long to get Scotty among the crew. It ends, of course, with Kirk in the captain's chair and Spock now his first officer even though the punk from Iowa hadn't even graduated Stafleet Academy when the excitement started. Old Spock is off to live his remaining years on a new Vulcan colony for the small number of Vulcans still alive. Nimoy is set if they need him for a movie plot with those folks.

This was a "I want the Blu-Ray" movie. I will try to go see it again next week to see if I missed any entertaining details. It is well worth a full price admission. There was one thing I didn't like and that bothered me during the movie and now...

What's up with "red matter?" This material, whatever it is, is crucial to creating the "black hole" that starts the events for this movie. No explanation is ever offered for what it is. I've now learned that there is a pre-movie comic, Star Trek:Countdown, which offers a bridge from Nemesis to this film and in sort of the same fashion as "The Clone Wars" orginial cartoons did between the last two Star Wars movies. Maybe it is there. All we get in the movie is a big red ball in a clear chamber. When I first saw it I almost let out a really loud laugh. Stuff this special is just a big red ball? Plus, it only takes a tiny red ball from the big red ball to make a "black hole." Okay... I think JJ Abrams had another polar bear moment with that one. If you don't have any real explanation of what it is or how it works, then keep it mysterious. Have the chamber dark so you can't see the substance. Emphasize the results. CGI from Industrial Light & Magic is not cheap. Don't waste their time and your money on big red balls.

I also use "black hole" in quotes here, because the Star Trek black holes seem a lot kinder than ones you usually see or read about. No crushing of matter from the massive gravity well just a trip to an alternate universe. I won't complain too much about that because who knows what could or could not happen in a black hole created by a 120+ year Vulcan.

Ultimately this movie proves that great characters don't belong to any one set of actors, writers, directors or even, at times, their creator. Great characters in the hands of quality actors, writers and directors can create tales that will allow the adolescents and teenagers of 1967 to share their love of Star Trek with their grandchildren in 2009. The world's trekkers are about to get a new influx of recruits.

2009-04-05T22:39:00.002-05:00

Intermezzo?

Tomorrow schools and colleges open up again. I calculated that in the month of March I met with my classes for 3 whole days. The rest were taken by a blizzard, Spring Break and flood fighting. The rest of the semester now consists of 5 weeks of classes and a slightly altered finals week. However, the river may have other plans.

We are expected to get a second crest sometime in the last half of April. What this will mean depends on how far the river goes down (currently it is just under 34 ft)down from 40.8), how much snow thaw and rains make it rise again and how much the Sheyenne River puts into the Red River. The Sheyenne is already causing more flooding in Valley City, ND and it is the biggest threat unless April turns into a very rainy month. All of this may mean a new fight for Fargo/Moorhead. Dike reinforcement is already being monitored and Fargo put up another contigency dike today in far south Fargo. Folks who have just gotten back into their homes may be forced to leave as the river rises again. The campus may have to stop classes again to lessen the strain on Moorhead's infrastructure. Both towns may have to close up public and private places again to assure traffic doesn't get in the way of the rapid response teams that fix problems in dikes. But for now all of that is just possible not certain.

So, tomorrow we begin a full week that should be as close to normal as possible while the river level remains in "major flooding" territory. I will reintroduce myself to my classes and start working under the "post flood" syllabi that I've put together. It will be weird, but I think people will enjoy the return of the routine. Now the ordinary will allow us to escape the extraordinary.

2009-03-29T22:54:00.002-05:00

Flood Report #7 3/28/09 10:54 PM

The last couple of days continue to bring observations that range from terrible to wondrous.

First the terrible, which is really just a few, but my ranting will go on and on.

We are dealing with national and international media and at times it is quite frustrating. One headline had "thousands fleeing homes" which is probably numerically accurate, but very deceptive. Another story floated that Main Avenue in Fargo was flooding. It wasn't, they just closed part of it to shore up a dirt dike to be better able to withstand the pressure of high water over several days. If you want better, quality of news I suggest the local paper (http://www.inforum.com/) and our biggest local AM station, the Mighty 790 KFGO.

Another terrible time came when Oak Grove Lutheran School had part of its permanent flood wall give way on the bottom and began to fill school buildings. For those of us here in 1997 the entire Oak Grove neighborhood was overwhelmed and this news in the middle of the night sounded like the first big loss in Fargo. By afternoon, however, the story had changed. The Fargo Public Works Director figured a way to use 1 ton sandbags dropped by Blackhawk helicopters to shore up the wall on the river side. The blackhawks dropped 11 bags and were flying right over my neighborhood. This effort plus lots of help pumping and cleaning has meant that as of us this writing I know of only one Oak Grove Lutheran building that still has water. The rest of the neighborhood is protected by dirt dike on the accurately named Short Street. Twelve years after I personally watched a river overwhelm the neighborhood, this time the river has been beat back and, so far, the damage has been as small as possible.

The last terrible is the weather forecast. We have another 8-12 inch snow storm starting tomorrow and going through Tuesday. It's already started in Jamestown and points west and it is headed our way. Initially it was forecast to be more heavy along the N. Dakota/S. Dakota border. Not now. Now we get our 4th major storm in 4 weeks and the 3rd snow storm. This one may also feature 30 mph winds on Tuesday. This is not as scary as it sounds as far as the flood. The snow will be wet, but it won't be putting much of that moisture into the river system until it melts. That looks like it won't start much before the weekend. That will give more time for the river to get lower and be able to take the water more easily. The problem will be how much it interferes with the current dikes and getting where needed to fight any problems with the dikes. In my neighborhood it also just makes it hard to get down the street. We are not a main street and the plowing only exists right now where it is really necessary. After the last storm I did a bit of the street near my driveway. I'm considering calling or emailing local radio to suggest those with big snowblowers on such streets do some of the same to alleviate things. I'll let you know who it goes. The wind could be troublesome. We may see whitecaps on the river.

There is also one oddity that I can't quite figure out. At this morning's press conference Fargo's mayor, Dennis Walaker, said he had been getting pressure from government officials "higher up" to evacuate Fargo. This statement came just about 36 hours after the ND DOT closed off the interstates in a way you would do if you were expecting to have all 4 lanes head in one direction during a mass evacuation. No such evacuation was on and it has not been clarified why the folks running North Dakota's highways from Bismarck decided to do that. I really want to know who the mayor was getting pressure from and why they were thinking that way. He's probably too nice a guy to say. Me, I'd face them down front and center. I can tell you that if you ordered an evacuation of Fargo today most of us wouldn't leave. We'd be asking "why do you want to surrender now?" On both sides of the river, the people take great pride in their insistence on taking what nature throws at them. Rude gestures would be the common response from the locals to evacuation.

This brings me once again to the big beautiful part of this natural (though poor development planning enhanced) disaster. 1997 was the first winter/spring I lived up here. I began to really fall for the place seeing how they pitched together during the flood. Twelve years later it is on again and once again the reaction is overwhelming glorious. I volunteer at the phone center that takes calls of people looking to volunteer. Last night we were repeatedly answering calls from folks who were anxious to do more. It was Saturday night and what they wanted to do was help others. Today, in order to stockpile sandbags, the city re-opened the Fargodome manual sandbagging effort. Plus, radio stations have been directing folks to small towns that have needed help. Tomorrow, Moorhead is going to be stockpiling sandbags. The citzenry doesn't want to turn the job over to the police, firefighters, public works, national guard and smaller numbers of volunteers. There is still a deep desire to be involved.

The river crested yesterday at just under 41 feet. We've are in a slow downward slope so that we are now down around the crest level of 1997. Given the snow, wind and length of time it will take to lower the river further, we all know we aren't done yet. I'll be spending part of my evenings at the call center ("Flood Central") each evening this week until they tell me to stay home. I've got to do my small part where I can.

Thanks for all your thoughts, prayers, contributions to relief (http://www.impactgiveback.org/general/index.aspx), wizard spells and everything else. My view is that the prayers have been answered by people responding in ways that truly follow the teachings I learned in Sunday School. Love your neighbor and do unto others as you would have them do unto you have come to life in thousands of ways in the Red River Valley over the last couple of weeks. I've even heard that the local criminal element has been taking time off. Perhaps they are filling sandbags, too.

2009-03-26T23:39:00.002-05:00

Flood Report #6 3/26/09 11:40 PM

Today was mostly bad. The city traffic was a mess as getting to Moorhead and back became like a Southern California commute. Traffic in each town was equally miserable in many places. The NWS raised the crest prediction to 42 feet. Evacuations are occurring in both Moorhead and Fargo. Even one of the hospitals is moving patients as a precautionary measure, though the hospital is staying open. A Coast Guard helicopter had to evacuate people from poorly placed Briarwood, ND. Concordia College is closed for at least ten days and is sending students away so they can shut off the water and sewer. Oh yeah, once the river crests it may stay that high from 3 - 7 days.

Government, contractors and volunteers continue to do remarkable work, but the water isn't cooperating. The big hope right now is that the cold temps will slow down the water and make the crest prediction too high. However, the cities aren't counting on that and that is the only thing to do. Places that are the most vulnerable along the river are being evacuated. Moorhead High School is now a Red Cross shelter. I'm not sure where the shelters will be for Fargo. I offered my room to people I know in the evacuation zone in Moorhead, but they already had a reservation at a hotel.

My house and neighborhood is an oasis amongst all this. There is an earthen dike a couple of blocks from here towards the river, but no one in my immediate neighborhood has any need to build sandbag dikes. Because of this, I've also offered my house as a place to come for a rest away from it all, but the problem is being able to get here. Tomorrow the city is blocking off major artery roads to sandbagging operation trucks, etc. only. They are doing this to avoid the delays they had today. I've not heard this in Moorhead, but I wouldn't be surprised if they do something similar where needed.

I did venture out a bit today due to a need to run some errands. I stuck to streets that weren't overwhelmed and drove through the unplowed side streets as much as possible. I'm now holed up at home until I'm due to volunteer at the call center ("Flood Central") on Saturday night. I think I've plotted a way to get there since the normal way won't be available to me. I'll do my best.

The tunnel vision of flood watching was only broken by good news on my stepmom's hip replacement (Yeah, Virginia!) and the unexpected victory by the Missouri Tiger basketball team. Otherwise all my focus is within this part of the Red River Valley.

I still find facebook a great tool. I can post news. I can talk to folks in the area. I can even talk to friends far away.

So tomorrow will be more of the same. Following news online, on the radio (KFGO is the place to listen) and on the local TV news. Occasionally I will notice that other TV and radio channels continue in a parallel universe where petty partisan squabbles are overblown, basketball rules, and reality TV and bad sitcoms continue. I will try to do a little work that I have here with me, but it is very hard to focus on that right now. MSUM hired a new dean for my college today and I'm not sure anyone noticed. I assume she's been informed she got the job, but I suspect she went right back to fighting the flood.

I sign off by giving you the knowledge that the next official recording of the river level will be over 40 feet. The 11:15 pm measure was 39.92 feet.

2009-03-25T14:51:00.002-05:00

Flood Report #5 3/25/09 2:52 PM

MSUM is now shut down until Monday. With another foot of dike building to do (that's another 500,000 sandbags in Fargo alone), there was no other choice. My Friday meetings better be canceled too.

I've realized that a year ago my cancer killing fight had started. Dr. Tim Mahoney is my surgeon. I've known Tim for years and he operated on me on 3/20/08. Now he is dedicating his organizational skills to the city as his duty as a city commissioner. He is all over town overseeing dike building efforts. When I see him on TV he looks very tired. God bless you Tim. You doing a great job for the city, just like you did for me.

I've have found facebook.com a real lifesaver today. Since I'm a germ carrier and am keeping myself away from healthy volunteers, facebook is how I communicate and voice some news, encouragement and vent frustration. It has really been helpful.

2009-03-25T13:01:00.002-05:00

Flood Report #4 3/25/09 1 PM

New crest prediction is out and it is scary. The NWS now says the crest will be sometime Saturday at 41 feet. That is about 1 1/2 feet over what the crest was in 1997. May they be predicting on the high side, especially since the prediction says it will stay for 2/3 days.

Odd thought in my head with that...Well, we are more likely to see Pres. Obama now.

2009-03-24T17:08:00.002-05:00

Flood Report #3 3/24/09 5:08 PM

I have lots of thoughts in my mind right now. This is likely to be stream of consciousness positng. Let me just get some of these out.

Youth is once again being served. As in 1997, it is college students, high school students and some even younger who are the labor force for the effort. Campuses were closed again today so they could be put to work and students from public and private high schools locally and from the region are also working. At one point today in Fargo they had too many volunteers. Gloria hallelujah for such problems. Students are coming from Grand Forks and other places from the region and from far away. They are making this fast work and the 24 hour filling of sandbags possible. Last night both the shoveling of sand on the Fargodome floor and the 3 machines at "Sandbag Central" went all night and in 24 hours they filled over 450,000 sandbags. They aim to do it again tonight.

The weather gave us a break today. The rain stayed away and lots of building got done. It was around 50 as the high and that helped so much. Tomorrow will be colder as a snowstorm starting late tonight is expected to give us 1-3 inches of snow. As long as this snow isn't too wet, this won't be too bad. Trucks hauling sandbags may have to be driving more slowly to prevent accidents. Plus, the cooler weather may have helped in the change in the crest prediction. That prediction is now for between 39 - 41 ft. but not until Sunday which is two days later than the previous prediction. That means there is more time to work. The cooler weather will also mean the crest may last awhile so managing dikes will go well into next week.

The bad surprises today were away from here. In both Bismarck, ND and Crookston, MN evacuations were needed after ice jams caused sudden flooding. We worry about those here, but mostly in tributary rivers. It is the Sheyenne River and the Wild Rice River and what they bring to the Red River that worries us most right now.

When I teach civic responsibility, so much focus goes into being a part of the political system. Truth is, I should teach days like this. It is a citizen volunteer force together with local, state and federal government that is key to this. If citizens had no afinity for there community or felt no responsibility to their fellow citizens, it would not be possible. It is this force of these individuals serving the common good together with dedicated elected officials and unelected bureaucrats that will make success possible.

I am getting increasingly irritated with stories on the radio of gawkers driving near work sites and other drivers ignoring police lights leading trucks with sand and sandbags where they need to go. I'm leaning toward the sherrifs' attitude of instant arrest and assignment to sandbagging. If they aren't able to do that, conviscate their cars so they can't do it again. They can have them back after the flood emergency is over. Free riders who sees this as a chance for entertaining sightseeing are not to be tolerated.

We are on NBC news right now. A news guy stands in front of a group hauling bags to build a dike. I wonder as he finishes, if they harass him and his camera guy to get to work.

I have noticed that my world has gotten a lot smaller in the last several days. I'm barely reading all the political and other news I usually pour over. I've ignored most of the NCAA basketball tournament games on TV, even the Tigers' extremely close game on Saturday. I was at the call center and used my marvelous Blackberry Storm to track the score when things slowed down. Baseball season starts in a couple of weeks. The Chiefs will be drafting new players soon. The political world is in a storm over AIG bonuses and the Obama Administration's plan to get credit moving again. I find all that as distractions and breaks from the intensity of the flood fight. Getting back to classes again, perhaps on Thursday, will be somewhat of a break.

This is very intense and I feel an powerful need to do what I can. For me and my bad back, answering phones is my contribution. I figured out last night as I left "Flood Central" that I had done 20 hours over 4 days. It made me feel good. Today, however, I also sense that it has probably led me to catch a cold. Too many hands touching the same phones. Germs love that. I'm only scheduled for two hours late tonight. I'll call ahead of time and see how much I'm needed. If I can stay home I will and hope to pitch in tomorrow.

For now I watch the glorious news of people living up to one of my favorite lines about the human race from a 1980's scifi movie. An alien states, "You are at your best when things are at their worst."

2009-03-23T14:07:00.002-05:00

Flood Report #2 3/23/09 2:07 PM

I'm back home after a morning on campus. Classes are shut down for today and tomorrow and the students from MSUM, Concordia and NDSU have been sent into the flood fight. It was college students who were key in . 1997 and they will be key again. They work fast. They last longer. They recover quicker. They and thousands of others are at work across the area. So many showed up to fill soundbags they had to just put a big pile of sand in the parking lot and give out shovels.

The volunteer surged is the good news. The weather forecast is the bad news. We've had showers today and more are possible tonight and tomorrow. At some point tomorrow afternoon it is to turn much cooler and the rain is to turn into snow. I've not heard how much snow for here, but farther west in North Dakota they are calling for several inches. This puts more pressure on the sandbagging and dike building. You can't build a good dike with frozen sandbags. To help speed things up at some sites, the city is getting "temporary flood walls." Evidently you can set these things up, fill them with sand and you've got a flood wall. I want to see one, but now is no time for sightseeing. In fact, the Sheriff on the Minnesota side threatens to arrest gawkers and put them to work sandbagging.

As for me, I'm doing my laundry now in case there is a call to reduce water usuage later in the week. This evening I'll return to "Flood Central" to answer phones again. I'll call later to see if they need me earlier than I planned to be there. I'll be back there again tomorrow and as many nights this week as needed.

I was supposed to give an exam to my American Government class on Thursday. It is a test that was delayed by the blizzard before Spring Break. Now it will be delayed by a flood. It is officially 'the disaster test.'

2009-03-23T00:26:00.002-05:00

Flood Blogging 3/23/09 12:27 AM

As a way to settle my mind during this flood week, I'm going to blog. It may be once a day. It may be more. I see it as a psychological release like I used my exercise bike tonight as physical release.

To catch up anyone who doesn't know, the Red River Valley is one its way to record flooding. You can check the local newspaper or listento our biggest local radio station and there is even a group on facebook.

Whatever way you see the information, it all boils down to this. Saturated ground froze last fall, early and late snows with lots of moisture are melting and we are having rain storms. The result is major flooding earlier and faster than in anyone's memory. Flood fighting here is usually a mid-April event. This year it is a late March event. The NWS latest forecast (we get one or two a day) is for a crest late Thursday or early Friday between 39 - 41 feet. Flood stage here is 18 feet. The big, bad flood of 1997 was about 39.5 feet. And it took a while to get to that level. The current projection has the river going up about 7 feet between now and 7 pm. It doesn't start slowing down until Wednesday night and by then it is projected to be over 38 feet.

This has led to a massive effort by local, state and federal government plus thousands of volunteers from here and elsewhere you are pitching in to do as much as they can as fast as they can. My back keeps me away from sandbags so I've been volunteering at the phone center. It's called "Flood Central." We take calls for people asking where to volunteer and asking for volunteers. We have received calls from lots of folks from outside the region who are coming here to help. We have received calls from frightened homeowners who need to build a dike and have never done it before. We get calls of ice blocked culverts causing flooding. We get calls from volunteers at one site which is done and looking for another place to work. The phones rang this evening almost constantly. It really got busy after the local news started and the calls went out to call the volunteer line number (701-476-4000 for anyone local reading this). By the time it got to be 10 pm and they switched to the overnight workers for Firstlink that is running the operation we were all happy not to answer any more calls.

Tomorrow classes are being cancellled at MSUM starting at 10:30. I couldn't figure that out at first. Then I heard Concordia was doing the same. My only conclusion is that they want the students to get to campus first. This works as an explanatin given that the Moorhead site for volunteering is Nemzek Fieldhouse on the MSUM campus. Maybe they'll have the profs just march the students from the classrooms directly to the fieldhouse an put them to work. I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing occurs on Tuesday. The young able bodies of college students are needed. In Fargo alone, the projection I mention previously means that the city will need 900,000 more sandbags than they first thought and they first thought they needed 1.5 million sandbags. Plus, those sandbags will have to be turned in dikes.

It is a helluva way to end Spring Break.

My mind is settling toward sleep now. I'm sure I'll be early to listen to the radio and try to figure out how much I should do at my office before getting back to "Flood Central." I'll try to update here when I can during the day.

If you are far away and want to help, you can make a donation at http://www.impactgiveback.org/
The first $25,ooo given will be matched and all the money will stay local to help with the flood fight an the recovery effort.

2009-02-24T21:45:00.002-06:00

My Liveblogging Entries From Obama's Speech

To read these in order of entry, start at the bottom and work your way up.

Now, to wrap this up. Obama once again shows the power of his talent as a speech maker. He also laid out a clearly activist government set of proposals. Liberal activists will never be fully satisfied, but this is the best chance they have had for truly liberal policies, such as national health care, to be forcefully pushed by a popular and politically astute president. I expect Obama's approval ratings to have the usual rise in the polls and I expect the news media to begin to recognize that the public wants this guy to succeed and want his policies to be put into affect.

I have never liked these responses. Didn't like them Democrats. Don't like them from Republicans. I think it is an exercise in time wasting with no meaning what so ever. "Sound and fury signifying nothing." (Thanks Will)

Jindal is speaking only as Governor. He seems to want us to never look into his record as a congressman.

He wants our troops to "stay on the offensive." Under GW Bush that was interpreted to mean Dick Cheney was looking for someplace else to invade.

Republicans favor "universal access to affordable health care."

Jindal pushes standard Republican answer that tax cuts fix everything. He seems to not like "volcano monitoring." I guess he is for government help on hurricanes, but the Americans near volcanoes don't need to know what is coming.

He is using Katrina as an example government can't be relied upon. Never mind that it was his party in charge and a Republican president who ruined FEMA.

"Americans can do anything."

If he is running for president in 2012, he needs to work on his speech delivery.

It's "Bobby Jindal."

Giddy pages are the last people Obama sees as he finally leaves the House chamber.

I predicted it before it was done, I truly did. Okay I didn't blog it, but I did say this would happen fast. A Republican analyst on CNN says "no details." Obama hasn't even left the chamber.

Oh wait, Gov. Jindal is next. Gee, I wonder what he will say.

He is done and now the bloviators of TV take over.

Obama uses patriotic themes to seek to bring divergent folks together rather than in an "us against them" motif.

He is using multiple stories of individuals to illustrate the values he is invoking in this speech and in his policy proposals. "Their resolve must be our inspiration."

Obama enjoys this job.

"Living our values doesn't make our nation weaker, it makes our nation stronger."

Veterans' will be taken care of after they get home. Just as we take care of our forces in the field.

Now for a brief diversion into foreign policy.

Much of the $2 trillion is probably from getting the hell outta Iraq. By the way, the Iraq War is in the President's budget for the first time.

"Identified over $2 trillion dollars in savings over the next decade." Then he mentions wealthy farmers, no-bid contracts and the age old "waste, fraud and abuse."

Republicans start the applause on debt reduction. Never mind the last 8 years.

Service in exchange for college tuition in a bill named for two good friends: Orin Hatch and Teddy Kennedy. They are two of the closest senators and have been for years.

"Every American will need more than a high school diploma" "More than quitting on your school, it is quitting on your country." Great line. Plus, it sounds like a full employment plan for Phd's like me.

Health care tied to deficit reduction as well as other economic needs. If business finally agrees and fights off the health insurers, then real change in health care that finally stops the ridiculous system we have now is possible.

Energy, health care and education are 3 big areas of focus. Invokes Chinese and others to challenge sense of being "#1" on energy.

Activist government on the domestic front is back.

Obama works the room behind a podium in ways few politicians can match. At the same time, he appeals to the TV audience. Enjoy the talent while we have it and watch to see how/if it helps him lead the public and the Congress.

Bashing ludicrous banker spending is popular.

Does anyone else find it amusing to watch members of the Congress read the speech as the President gives it?

For fun, watch when the Supreme Court justices and military officers think it is okay to applaud. They are supposed to stay "non-partisan."

Like many of Obama's big speeches some of the lines are familiar if you been paying attention to what he has been saying leading up to it.

Is the big guy they just showed the Inspector General who is to oversee the stimulus plan spending? He looks like a bouncer.

Mitch McConnell looks like an old man unhappily watching kids playing on his lawn.

Five weeks after inauguration he can speak to a joint session of Congress and start with an accomplish rather than more promises. That folks is a fast start.

"Short term gains were prized over long term prosperity." Like that line.

8:15 Here on I just babble on without time markers until the speech ends.

Speaker Pelosi finally really means it when she says "It is my high honor and distinct privilege to present the President of the United States."

Obama starts speech with acknowledgment to his wife. Nice touch.

8:10 Here comes President Obama.
I still think it is cool to write/hear that.

8:06 Will Chris Matthews comment on Hillary Clinton's clothing tonight as I kept doing during the primaries?
It is fun to see new faces when the president's people come into the House Chamber. No longer a sea of white men. The world can change in marvelous ways and we only see it at moments like this.

8:04 Biggest applause so far is for Justice Ginsburg. Keep fighting Ruth!

7:39 First shot of House chamber shows a member on his Blackerry with thumbs punching away. I now hear this speech may be an hour long. It better be one of his good ones.

7:27 Intentionally missed Al Sharpton. I don't like Al Sharption. It is a dislike that goes back 20 years. Try googling Sharpton and Tawna Brawley or Sharpton and Korean-owned convenience store. You will learn quickly why I don't like him.

7:12 It's Olbermann time. Barney Frank is on about a bank using TARP funds for luxury sponsorships and parties. He's always fun to listen to. I think it is his accent/lisp adding to his sharp sense of humor.

6:45 Preparing for the speech by watching last night's "Daily Show."

6:32 I will blog during the speech and probably some of the pre- and post-cable babbling. This is just for entertainment purposes only.

2009-02-24T19:42:00.001-06:00

Coming Attractions

I'm live blogging the speech tonight on a site for my students. I'll transfer the results over here after I am done.

2009-02-01T15:49:00.002-06:00

Super Bowl Sunday

Soon my 11th Super Bowl party will begin. It is not a big, boisterous affair. Just several friends bringing food and gathering with me to share the experience of watching the game. Yes, we do watch the game. I'm a true football fan so the game is central not a sideline at my party.

I started this to get through Super Bowl 32 between Green Bay and Denver. I didn't much like Green Bay and I hate the Bronocs so invited people to come watch with me. The number and actual people invited has varied a bit (I think only one perosn has attended them all besides me), but the goal is the same: have fun no matter what happens in the game.

Sometimes we have folks rooting for one team or another. Sometimes we have to find something more interesting than the game. Every time it has been a great time. That's why I keep doing it. Last year was our first HD game. Soon, that won't be a big deal.

One day the streak will end. You see there is one rule about this party. It is off if my beloved Chiefs make the Super Bowl. No one will won't to be around me on that day. I made my family nuts in 1970 waiting for Super Bowl 4 and the game wasn't an evening event then. I will be impossible when they finally get back (and they will get back).

Until then, the party is on.

2009-01-28T22:11:00.002-06:00

How Long Ago Was 1981?

Among the various blogs I read was a 1981 TV news report on receiving the newspaper on your computer.

Watch it and see how far away 28 years can look.

2009-01-25T14:31:00.004-06:00

In Memory

Yesterday morning I learned of the death of a colleague. It wasn't a surprise but his decline from seemingly decent health to death was only 10 days. For myself, I feel the need to share a few thoughts on him.

Jim was brilliant and troubled. He was a true eccentric who was rarely understood by those who had little or a lot of interaction with him. I knew some parts of him. I think that was true for most of us at the university. I do not know if anyone knew all of him. Complex is weak word to describe Jim. The thesaurus suggests multifaceted, thorny, convoluted and byzantine. Each of those should be included in any description of him.

He was a Texan though you would never know it from his accent. He did have the pride of a true Texan.

He worked on mathematical models that probably only a relative few understood. His brilliance took Jim to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory each summer.

He loved the types of films that never left the art theater, but also enjoyed "House" on television. I wonder now if he related somewhat to the lead character who was also brilliant but almost never happy.

He worked almost constantly either on his classes, his family's genealogy or his beloved math. If you were in the office on a weekend or late at night, Jim was your only consistent companion.

He took great pride in being a Republican amongst the supposed sea of Democratic professors. I also suspect he enjoyed being a non-union man at a union shop. He constantly fought for what he perceived to be the injustice of a lack of non-union voices on university committees. I never figured out if he was married to the principle or the battle.

Jim was a pain in the ass. I cannot skip this part of who he was. He could walk into your office and proceed to talk for 20 minutes before leaving. You would shake your head and wonder "What was that about?" The only conclusion was "That's Jim." The topics varied somewhat depending on whom he was speaking to but there were some constant themes. The university administration was always on the wrong track. The students only met his lowest expectations. He constantly feared for his job despite the protection the union contract gave someone with his seniority.

I most enjoyed talking to him about films and plays. He did search for the obscure and much of it was not my idea of entertaining choices, but I did learn about films I did enjoy. I also liked it when he spoke of Saint Lucia and Paris. I can't imagine Jim enjoyed either as much as most tourists. His pleasure was in diving into the libraries doing more research on his genealogy. From him, however, I learned of a place, Saint Lucia, and parts of its fascinating history that I would have never known.

I will miss that. I thank God for knowing this part of the man.

The third floor will be a bit more quiet with his loss. It will also be a bit sadder without our true brilliant eccentric.

Goodbye, Jim. May God grant you the peace you never found on this plane of existence.

2009-01-25T14:25:00.002-06:00

What Should Obama Read?

The Washington Monthly has an article asking folks what Obama should read. I thought I'd put the question out there and see if anyone who reads this blog has a suggestion.

Rather than some non-fiction book to influence his thinking on his presidency, I suggest a book such as "To Kill a Mockingbird" or any other book that speaks of our country and ourselves through the eyes of a great writer.

PS: I am always look for good books, so this post may be somewhat selfish.

2009-01-20T22:19:00.004-06:00

Inauguration Day 2009

This has been my most participatory Presidential Inauguration Day. No, I didn't get to DC. However, I did have to send a friend his tickets when he left town a day before they arrived. He is bringing me back a copy of the Washington Post's Special Inauguration Edition.

My events were at my university. On very quick notice and virtually no money, we put together events going all day long. My duties were in the morning and early afternoon today, but I had lots of fun doing it. I was "master of ceremonies" for an hour-long presentation prior to turning it into a rather large "watch party" for the swearing in and speech. I was appropriately dressed in a patriotic hat, "VOTE" sweatshirt" and blue jeans. I believe in comfort and being a beacon for a celebration. Plus, I told my students that "I'd be the one in the funny hat."

I gave a rundown on the ceremony and other professors provided historical and international perspectives. Not many people where there for those parts. Then it got to be a half hour before the swearing in of Obama and the hordes arrived. We ended up having about 800 people in two different rooms. Later I ran an informal chat in my role as a member of the League of Women Voters before a handful of people. We talked about the event, our happiness at the end of the terrible GW Bush years and how people can be heard by a new Congress and a new President. The rest of the afternoon students could compete in games and even attend an "ObamaBall" with a DJ tonight.

I had lots of fun. I even got a t-shirt of the event. I didn't even get down later with a chairs' meeting on our lack of money. I did fall off the adrenaline high and have spent the evening relaxing quietly.

I will sleep well tonight and actually work in my office tomorrow. What's the great part of my job? I get to follow the new Administration as part of it.

2009-01-19T18:29:00.002-06:00

The Difference One Man May Make

Tomorrow at noon Barack Obama becomes President of the United States. Saying that out loud still gives me a moment's pause. This is actually going to happen.

I became a fan of Obama in 2004, like so many others, after hearing his speech at the Democratic Convention. I read about him and followed his race for the Senate seat in Illinois. I read of his wife's reminder to him when he took office that now he could earn all the attention by getting something done. I supported his run for the presidency from the moment it was clear he would run. I spent 2007 making sure I didn't get too excited on his prospects. I am a political scientist. I knew to be cautious.

I spent 2008 watching him win.

Now it is 2009 and he will be my president. He has excited many Americans and many non-Americans in the hope for a return to a country which we are all proud. He faces great challenges and a government structure not meant to bring about quick change. In fact I was asked today, "Is he being set up to fail?" The satirical Onion had it best when he declared after Obama's election "Black Man Given Nation's Worst Job."

Here are the handful of predictions I am willing to make tonight:

1) Let me start with what won't happen. He won't create a "post-partisan" America. The difference between the parties is distinct and distant. He can reach to Republicans, but I question how much they will reach back. The only I can say for sure is that the more he succeeds with the public, the less the Republicans will be strictly about blocking him.

2) He will have a "honeymoon." This isn't Bill Clinton in 1993. The country is very different. The man is very different. How much he can get done in whatever is declared to be his "honeymoon." He will get a stimulus package. But he calls that a "down payment." When he goes back to Congress with, perhaps, a multi-year package for infrastructure renewal or new regulations for business, may well be the true test.

3) Congressional Democrats will cause him trouble. Why? Because that's what they do to Democratic presidents. They won't be as bad as they were for Jimmy Carter. He was an outsider and they had run Congress since the 1950's. They thought he should follow their lead at times. He didn't like them. It didn't work well. Obama has been in Washington and his transition has demonstrated an acknowledgment of the need to be able to successful conduct congressional relations.

4) Public support is more important than good press. The Bush Administration ignored and manipulated the news media and no one cared. The Obama Administration is likely to lead the way in using the Internet to engage the public with or without the approval of the DC news media. If public ends up maintaining their support for Obama, the traditional news media will follow along.

5) This will not be a remake of "The West Wing." Many liberals loved "The West Wing" and its idealized view of how to be a liberal Democratic president. TV is just TV even when it is well written TV. Reality is so much messier; has more ambiguous endings; and never comes with a many well-spoken soliloquy at the key moment.

6) Finally, I expect Obama to be more cautious than liberals want. I say that because he is a good politician and will not want to "get too far ahead of the public." What I will be watching is how far toward liberal views in areas as the social safety net, civil liberties, gay rights, environmental protection and business regulation he will try to lead the American public. I can see him seeking to make a number of changes under the argument that it is needed for an economic rebound. The lousy economy is a chance to push for a return to a more progressive tax system and a less corporate welfare oriented economic policy. The horrible W foreign policy disaster is a chance to return to international policy sanity. I will watch for how far he dares to go.

I'll conclude with a confession. At some point tomorrow I will give in to tears of joy. I am part of an event at my university and I'll be busy up to the ceremony and even after. At some point during day, perhaps when I return home a review my recordings of the events, I will cry in joy at the reality of President Barack Obama.

2009-01-18T13:42:00.002-06:00

Democrats are Back

First observation of inauguration ceremonies...

Democrats simply get much cooler celebrities to the party. Right now at the Lincoln Memorial Concert has opened with Denzel Washington followed by Bruce Springsteen singing with a huge church choir. Tiger Woods and many others are to follow.

2008-11-05T01:15:00.003-06:00

Probably Last Blog for Tonight

Brain is beginning to fade. My predictions for Obama look a little modest. I'll watch more but comments in head too hard to translate into complete thoughts so blogging will end. It has been a great night so far. I have hope for more to greatness to come.

2008-11-04T22:11:00.000-06:00

I Now Have Happy Tears

2008-11-04T20:28:00.002-06:00

VICTORY

Barack Obama will be President of the United States.

2008-11-04T19:14:00.002-06:00

255

That is my current count for Obama in the Electoral College. I'm waiting for a 2nd network to call New Hampshire for Obama and Indiana continues to look very good for Obama.

2008-11-04T18:37:00.002-06:00

Early Results

Indiana is close, but county level data is very good for Obama. Virginia also "too early to call." If Virginia goes to Obama and Pennsylvania follows then this is already almost over.

2008-11-04T17:59:00.002-06:00

Hints

Talking heads on CNN and MSNBC are dropping big hints that they expect a very good night for Obama.

First projections of Vermont for Obama and, finally, Kentucky for McCain. Won't call S. Carolina yet. All the rest are battleground states.

2008-11-04T17:36:00.002-06:00

5:36 and the Networks are Being Slow

I thought the networks would be slow to call any swing state, so I'm not surprised that Indiana isn't being called at all. That's particularly true since Gary doesn't close until 6 pm.

But Kentucky! They can't call Kentucky right away. Either weirdness is happening there, which I doubt or they are all starting very cautiously.

I'm all set up. TV is on. Radio nearby. Two computers running with multiple pages open.

I do have to remember to eat something.

2008-11-04T15:05:00.002-06:00

3 pm and I'm getting antsy

I've done a little bit of work. I've had my class. Now I've got to find things to do until polls close. I'll run a couple of errands before going home, but I have to not get out of the office to soon or I'll just pace in my house.

No real news yet. Are lots of local and national stories on poll workers being amazed by the number of "young voters" at the polls. More students around here wearing "I voted" buttons than I've ever seen. Be aware that it may be that the percentage of young voters (18-25 or 30) may not grow a lot even if their turnout at a much higher rate. This happened in 2004 when the overall electorate increased. Actual numbers on that won't be out for awhile. All we'll have is the guestimates from exit polls.

2008-11-04T10:22:00.002-06:00

Listen to Truett and Go Vote

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svhq4C9HhUg

2008-11-04T10:03:00.002-06:00

Election Day 10 AM

I've been to a 7:30 am meeting and am now pouring over whatever passes as "news" this early on election day. I have dressed appropriately. My Obama t-shirt is covered by a "VOTE" sweatshirt and my cap says "Vote or Die." The sign on my door asks, "Have you voted? Do it Dammit. It's only the country at stake."

I'll occupy myself with work and try not to obsess until there are actual results to obsess about. I'll post fun or informative stuff as I find them. I once again recommend 538.c0m.

2008-11-03T23:32:00.002-06:00

Landslide Begins

Dixville Notch, New Hampshire goes for Obama 15 to 6. First time, a Democratic has won the hamlet's early vote.

I plan to blog throughout election day, in part to help me vent while I wait for the results. It should be amusing.

2008-11-03T22:02:00.002-06:00

Election Predictions

I'm watching Monday Night Football to see who will win the presidential election tomorrow. You see, the story goes that if the Washington Redskins win their last home game before the election, the incumbent party keeps the White House. If they lose, the incumbent party loses. This has held from 1936 -2000. 2004 blew the streak. We await the football prediction as the 4th Quarter begins with the Pittsburgh Steelers leading 16-6.

There are lots of such predictions. The taller candidate tends to win. I've seen Halloween masks used. The Weekly Reader poll of grade school kids is also often cited. This year all those indicators see Obama winning, just like the polling data. Even the choice of the "alien" from the Weekly World News, is a favorite indicator. Obama was endorsed by the "alien" in August, but a shocking development occurred on Halloween when the "alien" switched to McCain. However, the Weekly World News indicates this may involve sexual bribery. I await a full expose by the New York Times.

I won't use any of these for my predictions. You may mock me as you wish when it is all over. I have no fancy model like 538.com or years of polling experience like pollster.com. I've got my experience as a political scientist and a political junkie. The latter means I've obsessed over all the information I can get access to for months. The former means that when I calm down from information overload, I can do a much better job analyzing that information than most of the blowhards you'll see on TV.

With that in mind, here are my official predictions:

Obama wins (such a daring call). Popular vote 52% to 47% with 1% going to Nader, Paul, Mickey Mouse, etc. I may be generous to McCain here because you have to search for polls where he even makes 46%, but I'll stay cautious. I'll be more daring with the Electoral College and put it at 347 to 191. This is Obama winning all the states Kerry won in 2004 plus Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and North Dakota. I am confident of all the states through Virginia. I am saying Missouri goes with the winner once again and Florida and North Carolina are won by Obama's ground game. I added North Dakota just because it is fun to dream that the polls showing an Obama lead are true. McCain's been living in Ohio so I kept it from being even a bigger blowout. I also can't bring myself to have Indiana vote for the Democrat. That's too much change for me to handle just now.

Building on reviews from Charlie Cook who follows the US House races in detail, I'll say the Democrats add 25 more seats to their majority. Personally, I'll be watching a couple of seats in my home state of Missouri and rooting for the defeat of the hideous Michelle Bachmann in Minnesota. The story in the link is not the first time Bachmann has spouted ridiculous rightwing nonsense. She first gained attention for ranting about schoolkids going to see Harry Potter.

I pay much closer attention to the Senate. Here I'll predict a sure pickup of 7 Senate seats for the Democrats. Five are easy to pretty easy: Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire and Alaska. Looking likely are Oregon and North Carolina. Dole's campaign in North Carolina rivals McCain's for worst of the year. There is a possible 8th in Minnesota, but that race is so screwy I refuse to make an official pick. Two other races I'll watch are Georgia and Kentucky. Georgia has the despicable Saxby Chambliss who ran ads 6 years ago comparing his opponent, a disabled Vietnam vet, to Saddam Hussein. McConnell is the incument in Kentucky, and I just don't like him. Both of these are real longshots, but there is no cost in dreaming.

There they are. I put them into the ether of the Internet for all to see. Okay, for the 5 or 6 people who actually read this blog to see.

Update: It is final: Steelers 23 Redskins 6. Obama wins!

2008-10-31T18:18:00.003-05:00

Fright Nights

It is Halloween night and across the land the most frightened people are not those at the Haunted Farm or local movie scream-a-thon. No, the most frightened people are Democrats who cannot stand that there are still a full Saturday, Sunday, Monday and part of a Tuesday before votes are counted. That means there is still time for a seeming assured win to turn into a loss.

Two years ago, a political cartoon epitomized the view of Democrats. A small donkey dressed as Charlie Brown faced Lucy with the football. Lucy says something like, "All the polls show you ahead."

It was the perfect metaphor for the Democratic attitude, especially during a presidential election year. In my lifetime, Democrats have won only 4 presidential elections. That kind of losing means you keep waiting for "something" bad to happen. Chicago Cub fans understand perfectly what I'm talking about.

What "something" will go wrong? It doesn't matter. It could be that aliens from the planet Zenon are secretly backing Obama. This fear isn't about reality. It is about simple paranoia. I have had Democrats saying things to me like "I'll believe when I see it" and "Are you optimistic about Tuesday?" This is the attitude when every Electoral College analysis you can find outside of the McCain campaign has Obama winning more than the 270 electoral votes needed. Even Karl Rove has an Electoral College prediction with Obama at 311. Democrats will only see that as a sign of a Republican conspiracy to make Democratic voters complacent.

Luckily, the Democrats who are cool under pressure are Barack Obama and his campaign staff. Through the entire year they have lived up to their "No Drama Obama" nickname. Through the primaries they stuck with a clear strategy and made it work. In the summer while numerous Democrats wanted them to be blitzing the airwaves with ads against McCain, they worked on building their ground organizations. When the Republican convention bounce boosted McCain, they just kept moving forward and didn't jump to "do something dramatic" when the financial crisis hit. They left it to McCain to look foolish by saying he would suspend his campaign and wanted the first debate canceled. It blew up in his face and Obama has been running ahead every since.

In this last weekend, the ground game built in the summer is paying off. Thousands of staffers and the volunteers they have trained and empowered have been helping bring out the millions of early voters in key battleground states. These voters are heavily Democratic in most battleground states and places like Colorado are expecting to see more than half their voters before election day. The overall turnout is expected to top the 122 million from 204 and there is a possibility that we will see the highest turnout since 1960.

All indicators point to great night for Democrats on Tuesday. What they hope to see is the return of the political cartoon from the day after the 2006 campaign. Lucy and the little donkey Charlie Brown looking up in wonder as the football soared through the goalposts.

Then they'll start worrying about how the return of "the rightwing conspiracy" from the 1990's set to destroy another Democratic presidency.

2008-10-07T23:13:00.002-05:00

My Favorite Month

October is my favorite month of the year. This is particularly true during election years. I get all my favorite competitions at once: politics, football and baseball. All of my obsessions get fed.

In baseball, I get post-season games. This year the league championship series give me David vs. Goliath in the American League with Tampa Bay vs. Boston. In the National League it is LA vs. Philadelphia. There I'll root for the Phillies just because I have someone to root for on that team. Chris Coste is the backup catcher in Philadelphia and I used to root for him in his days in Independent League baseball and even got a chance to talk to him and wish him well one winter before he headed to "organized ball" in what was the beginning of his long trail to the majors. He has even written a book about it called "The 33 Year Old Rookie." As a backup catcher, Coste doesn't get as much playing time in the postseason as he did during the regular season, but after 10 years working to get to the majors he deserves the champagne I saw him celebrating with after the Phillies beat Milwaukee.

October is the middle of football season. That means I have to do my work around my football watching obsession. This week it will mean getting exams graded on Friday so I can watch football on Saturday and Sunday. My beloved Chiefs are rebuilding and are just plain bad right now. However, their one victory was over the Broncos and was a lot of fun. I love the game enough that even when the Chiefs are bad I enjoy watching other games through my lovely HD with DirecTV NFL package.

The Mizzou Tigers continue to impress with one of the most prolific offenses in the country. Last Saturday I watched with joy as they destroyed Nebraska in Lincoln. It was the first time since I was in high school that Mizzou beat Nebraska in Lincoln. The final was 52-17 and was almost as much fun as beat KU on national TV last November. My lifelong watching of the Tigers still makes me wary of getting too excited, but each week I hope for more days in which I shake my head in wonder at how well they play.

That leaves my obsession with politics.

Football is really about weekends. Postseason baseball has off days. My politics obsession in an election year October has something new every day and often multiple times a day. The Internet only makes me more of a political junkie as I now have easy access to polls, events, spin, ads and the punch/counterpunch of the various campaigns I'm following.

I love it.

Of course, the presidential campaign gets most of my attention, in part because it feeds my obsession most readily. Tonight's debate was just another event in the endless series of points I've followed for more than 1 1/2 years as the campaign has unfolded. We have only 4 weeks left and there fewer and fewer opportunities for either side to affect the outcome of the race.

The debate tonight did nothing to change the presidential election. (Right now one of my best friends is mocking me for saying this, but then he's killed trees and spent computer power studying debates.) Obama has riden bad economic news and McCain's bad reactions to losing (see Sarah Palin and the "suspension" of his campaign) to a clear lead in national polls and the Electoral College. McCain has entered the last 28 days needing something "new" that favors him. He's trying attacks on Obama's "associations." It's not working. In the debate, he didn't seem to try anything in particular except the idea that unsteady times requires an experienced hand. Unfortunately fo him, the public wants "change" and Obama exudes change.

In the 2 presidential debates, Obama's main task was to make those unsure of him more comfortable. He has done this simply by being calm and presenting his points in a well-practiced tone aimed at "the middle class." He hasn't needed to do much more than appear plausible as the next President of the United States. He has done that easily and left McCain in the dust in all the snap polls and in many of the pundits and bloggers reviews. There is one more debate left and his only goal will be to continue to avoid making a big mistake. McCain needs the gaffe, scandal or bad choice from Obama to make the race more competitive. Beyond such a mistake, I'm not sure what can help McCain.

The public is consumed by the bad economic news and the party that occupies the White House gets the blame when the economy goes bad. Someone on CNN tonight cited a poll that said 60% of voters say the economy is the top issue and Obama wins those voters by 20%. McCain can only grimace in pain at such numbers.

With so little time left, the campaign is also turning to "the ground game." Voter registration deadlines are being hit in states who don't allow "same day registration" and the campaigns and parties turn to GOTV (Get Out The Vote). Again, this in an area where Obama has a big advantage. Obama has been working on this effort for months. Campaign offices, phone banks, canvassing, voter registration and database building have been organized in every state. They hit my street in August. They have the folks on the ground that have been registering voters and will now turn to getting those voters to the polls. The most effort will be in the states where the campaigns have battled the most. These include traditional spots like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Missouri, but Obama's extended the battleground to Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina which are usually reliably Republican. In recent presidential elections the Republicans have beaten the Democrats at GOTV. It was a key part of their victories in 200 and 2004. This year the advantage goes to the former community organizer who has used the new tools of the Internet and old tools of person-to-person campaigning to build an impressive organization. Read this bloggers views as they tour sites in Missouri for more detail on the difference.

In 4 weeks my political obsession culminates with a long day waiting for election returns and then a very late night watching, reading and listening to results. My favorite month will have gone, but I am hoping that November brings joys of its own.

2008-09-29T21:33:00.002-05:00

Governance Loses to Ideology

Because I am recovering from some surgery, I was home today to watch the vote in the House on the bailout. I watched expecting a close but successful vote. I thought the warnings of dire consequences would force enough ideological voters on both sides to swallow hard and muster the votes needed from both parties.

I was wrong.

Instead, ideology triumphed over governance. Two-thirds of House Republicans refused to vote for the bill and the Democrats refused to force the needed votes from their side alone. The Democrats had supplied 140 votes for the bill. They asked the Republicans for something close to 80. They could only muster 65. Republicans in the House and the McCain campaign would later blame Speaker Nancy Pelosi's speech which included criticisms of Bush economic policies for being "too partisan" and driving votes away from the bill.

That's bull. The most conservative members of the House Republican conference didn't want to pass it. They wanted a "market solution." I have no idea what that means when the credit market is failing, banks are collapsing and the Federal Reserve is using hundreds of millions of dollars to add some liquidity to the markets. The House Republicans by a 2/3 majority choose their ideology over anything else. They may have hoped the Democrats would step in to save the day and then they could spend the rest of the campaign railing against the "socialist Democrats." Never mind that the plan come to Congress from George W. Bush's White House. This time the Democrats would not play along.

I agree with the variety of voices who refer to this as a wide failure of leadership. W is weaker and more disconnected by the day. He couldn't even muster more than a vapid expression during his prime time speech last Thursday night. His fellow Republicans have abandoned him to save themselves. The leadership in both parties in the Congress had to balance electoral needs and governing needs. The Democrats mustered just what they promised and no more. The Republicans could not hold their votes. Neither wanted to take the blame for what has been labeled as "socialism for the rich." No one appeared capable of explaining why this does matter to the average voter. The drop in the stock market and the increasingly tight credit may soon provide the lesson.

The last quarter of the year is vital to retailers in this consumer driven economy. If credit continues to contract and consumers fear for the economy. Spending will not meet the needs of businesses and the result will be a further weakening of the economy. No one in Congress seems prepared to make this point and take the hit alone. Neither presidential candidate wants to take responsibility for the economy before being elected. (Though McCain strangely tried to take credit for the bailout passage before the vote. He later blamed the Democrats for its failure. This is what a failing campaign looks like.)

We are left with failing credit markets and a failing government. The latter can only deepen the problems with the former.

What will happen?

My best guess tonight is some sort of "mini-bailout." A smaller version of the bill to bid time at least through the election and perhaps until the new President and Congress hit Washington in January. Maybe only $350 billion for the markets to be reviewed by oversight committees before any more money can be spent. The only thing I am sure of is that the more the stock market falls, the more likely a bill passing becomes. Voters may not understand credit markets, but they know how to watch their mutual funds decline. When action is demanded, perhaps governance can trump ideology.

2008-09-03T18:25:00.002-05:00

Sarah's Easy Task... Playing the Victim

In a few hours, Sarah Palin will give her speech accepting the nomination as the vice-presidential candidate for the Republican Party. Unless she forgets how to give a speech or the McCain campaign tries to turn her into someone she isn't, she'll be fine. Her fellow right-wing social conservatives who fill the delegate seats will love her and cheer loudly. She'll look good on TV. The campaign will follow the speech by shaking off any criticism from the media as further "attacks" upon her. In fact, being a victim of the media will be part of the speech according to the released text. The blame the media counterattack will be fully under way and will, again, play very well to the Republican base that still sees the media as in the pocket of liberal Democrats. By the end of the night and through the day tomorrow the Republicans will try to declare Palin a great success and seek to push aside any further questions on her views or record.

Their efforts with her speech is part of the overall strategy the McCain campaign has set for this convention and, seemingly, the rest of the campaign that they are "change candidates, too." Yep, the party that has owned the White House for 8 years and had both houses of Congress for 4 of those years. The party in power is now for change.

Changing who is in power? No.

Changing the policies of the past 8 years? No.

Changing the Republican brand from the tattered wreckage left by W and his disasterous presidency? Oh, they wish for it so much.

Palin's pick is, as I previously wrote, a move by a campaign convinced it is losing and looking for something to alter the outlook. The Republican Party also wishes for a "do over" as they face losses in the House and Senate that will strengthen the Democrats hand next January. They seem fairly resigned to the congressional losses. They are desperate to save the White House as their own personal property.

McCain's campaign advisors realize that "change" is the overriding desire of voters in 2008. Like Hillary Clinton before them, they will try to sell themselves as the "safe change" or "familiar change" while Obama represents "risky change." The Democratic Party electorate didn't find Hillary's familiar change as enough of what they wanted. The general election audience is now asked to find John McCain as "the change you can feel comfortable with." Sort of "new and improved" like a box of detergent.

There is, however, nothing new or improved about John McCain or Sarah Palin. They represent the continuation of policies that have failed miserably and an ideology that hates government except when it can be used to help their friends, bully small countries or impose their interpretation of God's will on the rest of us. It is another playing of a familiar tune that was started with the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980. He was "the outsider" through his entire 8 year term. Then W, son of a president, ran as "the outsider." Now, it seems, a member of Congress for over 20 years is going to try the same theme.

This a theme Palin can play along. She isn't experienced. She isn't the crusading reformer they wish to play her as. Put Alaska is about as outside of Washington as you can get.

Now all they have to do is convince enough voters that the same party that has led 80% of the American public that the country is on "the wrong track" is the choice to change things. It's not impossible, but usually only works when the other party is so weak or divided you are the only real choice. Palin's efforts against the corruption in the Alaska Republican Party is an example. She could successful play "outsider" against the corrupt members of her party in a state overwhelming Republican.

But McCain isn't offering change from W's policy or Republican conservative orthodoxy. He's offering replacing W and Cheny with a war hero and a new chick. But don't look too close to the "new and improved" candidates. You ruin the illusion the marketing boys and girls worked so hard to create. Tonight Sarah Palin will play her part in this illusion.

2008-08-29T15:51:00.002-05:00

Hillary, Elvis, Joe and the Beatles

I know the title makes no sense, but it has all the points I want to cover about the Democratic Convention.

First, Hillary did her job on Tuesday. She played to all those who could be swayed. Anyone left among her voters who won't vote for Obama are probably voters he could never get and some she wouldn't have kept. The unhappy Hillary voters were an overblown story by 15,000 journalists searching for conflict to cover. The Democrats are very united this year and Hillary and Bill did their jobs in keeping them that way.

Speaking of Bill, I think I have figured out his resistance to Obama. Bill is Elvis in 1964. He's been around awhile and been the "Big Dog" in the Democratic Party for more than a decade. But now times have changed and the Democratic Party has changed. When the Beatles hit the charts in 1964, Elvis didn't get what the attraction was. He had been usurped and he didn't like it. Bill has been usurped as well and he thought he had a way to extend his influence -- Hillary as president. Instead, he faces a very different sound from a new voice. He will do his duty as a Democrat and and support the ticket as much as he is asked to do so. However, he will never get why his voice is no longer the most attractive to listeners.

Joe Biden enjoyed this convention more than just about anyone else. Every time he was seen, there was a smile and he was hugging everyone he could. After a long career, he has a chance to step into a role in the executive branch. The Vice-Presidency wasn't his goal, but the opportunity is too good to decline. I found Obama's choice of Biden interesting for one reason...
Obama chose someone widely recognized to be as smart as he is. Sure, the choice bucks up the national security resume of the ticket and is a fairly "safe" choice from the guy expected to win. However, he also chose someone who will challenge his views. It is real hard not to see Biden being heard from in an Obama Administration. Joe has a way of insisting on being heard even when you wish he'd shut up. He, like Palin, won't decide the election, but he is a reassuring choice for those with doubts about Obama.

As for the nominee, Barack Obama once again demonstrated that he is the best political speaker of my lifetime. He also recognizes what the general election against the Republicans will require. His speech last night laid out a theme for the campaign (change we need); what's wrong with the opposition (Eight is Enough); his specific proposals (none of them new to his supporters but they weren't the audience he was aiming for); and demonstrated he can throw the needed punches back at the Republican attack machine. The most impressive part for me wasn't any phrase or theme. The most impressive part was that in a stadium filled with 84,000 fired up supporters; he had them listening in silence when he wanted. It was a master at work. The weak McCain campaign response released to the media after the speech, was a sign that they were unprepared for his exceptional performance.

Nods also go to his staging crew. As with event after event I've seen through the campaign, the Obama people know how to put on show that plays well on TV. All the talk of the setting being "too big" and fears of how a speech sounds in a football stadium were nonsense. They built a set and positioned cameras to give the images that fit perfectly into a TV screen, particularly in HD. There was even a flag that seemed to flutter at just the right times behind Obama. He wasn't a lonely figure on a stand amongst a mass of people. He was able to reach right out through the camera to the 38 million plus viewers, which included many who were measuring him for the presidency for the first time.

Yes, the Palin surprise keeps his story from playing heavily nationally for another day, but his campaign will manage. After hearing for weeks of "what they have to do at the convention" and then seeing the campaign surpassing the best expectations of the most optimistic Democrats, I think these folks know what they are doing and the Alaska Governor under investigation won't be much of hindrance.

2008-08-29T10:15:00.004-05:00

Desperate Much? (Updated)

I'll blog on the Democratic Convention and Obama's fantastic speech later today. I'm too distracted now by McCain's choice for Vice-President.

Until the info pours out more on Gov. Sarah Palin today, the only thing I have ever heard about her is that she is in the midst of an investigation of the firing of her ex-brother-in-law, a state trooper. (See Update below for correction on this.) It is known that an aide in the governor's office called the Public Safety Commissioner about the trooper before the firing. The Public Safety Commissioner is gone, but the investigation continues and the question that is open is did she have the aide do this as a vengeful act.

It appears the social conservatives will love her so the convention delegates in St. Paul will be happy, but this only makes the pick look like it is from a troubled campaign. A candidate who thinks he is losing and needs a big splash makes this pick. A candidate who fears that part of his base is abandoning him makes his pick. The candidate who makes this pick has just stepped on his main selling point against his opponent -- experience. You can't emphasize the lack of experience of your opponent when you have put a governor of less than 2 years with no foreign policy experience at all a heartbeat a way from the presidency.

When I first heard this name, I thought for sure it was a feignt. By tonight the phrase "Trooper Gate" will be around the news media. I'm curious to see how the media frames the pick. Will it be "daring" or will "desperate" or "risky" rule the day. I fully expect the Democrats to think they just got a gift from McCain.

Update: It seems it was the firing of the Public Safety Commissioner that is under investigation. He (if I have this right now) didn't fire the brother-in-law and then the Governor fired him claiming she "wanted to take the Department of Public Safety in a different, more energetic direction. She replaced him with Chuck Kopp, the former Kenai police chief. But Kopp resigned Friday over questions about a reprimand he received after a sexual harassment complaint lodged against him in Kenai." Quite a reformer, isn't she.

2008-08-21T23:16:00.002-05:00

Dems Finally Have Some Fun

After suffering through the frustration of having their nominee being attacked as too popular, too skinny and somehow strange for vacationing in Hawaii, the Dems have had a day of fun. John McCain's lifestyle as one of the rich and famous is laid bare as he fails to be able answer how many houses he and his wife own. For today and perhaps tomorrow, those Dems who had begun to worry about their candidate's rapid response and ability to attack can rest easy. The Obama campaign is playing this for all it's worth with a very fast ad and a lineup of surrogates in 16 states to continue the attack and keep the traditional and internet media focused on the wealth of the McCain's. Bloggers are spreading the idea of keys to be noisily jangled in Denver starting on Monday.

Such trivia does matter when it allows campaigns to frame issues in a light favorable to their view and when it contributes to the effort to influence the image of the opponent. The sad counter to this fun is that important news was made today. The Iraqis have gotten the Bush Administration to go for a timetable for the withdrawl of US troops. It turns it out that what the US Congress could not accomplish the Iraqi government could. They want us out in 2011.

The Democrats could and should be crowing over how the Bushies now follow their lead in foreign policy, but the deal's not quite done and it is so much easier to show pictures of the McCain's "ranch" from The Architectural Digest.

Personally, I mostly enjoyed how the story beat back some of the rambant VP speculation. It was getting very tiring.

2008-08-06T14:38:00.003-05:00

God Bless Alan Abramowitz

During the "dog days of summer" of an election year, filling 24-hour news networks and political blogs leads to extreme reactions to nothing. In political science we speak of "noise" in data, particularly polling data. And it is our duty as political scientists to bring a bit of sanity to it all. Today the job was done by Alan Abramowitz from Emory University via The Huntingtonpost.com.

Go watch baseball; go fishing; go to a movie; or go find Brett Favre a team. The real political race resumes on August 28 when Barack Obama gives his convention speech to impossibly high expectations. All before that, including VP picks, is very, very unlikely to matter in November. And I include Paris Hilton's greatest contribution to society.

2008-07-18T13:40:00.007-05:00

Last Posting from Britain (assuming I'm allowed back in US)

We are finishing our last day in Britain. We did a number of things in London over the last couple of days, but if he'd had more endurance, more time and more money we could do so much more. Where we are staying is amongst the museums and since it is July and the museums are free, they are filled with school kids from their last days at school or with their parents/nannies/playgroup. We visited the Museum of Natural History which has too much to do in one day, but made sure we saw the dinosaurs, such as the plesiosaur below.

We also visited some fictional monsters at the Doctor Who Exhibit at Earl's Court. The Dalek below missed us every time.

That was all in Kensington. Today was the center of London with a visit to St. Paul's Cathedral...

A view of London Tower (with its pretend bowman below) and a walk up to London Bridge. No tour of the tower to save money and our tired feet.

We did take a short cruise up part of the Thames where I got this shot of Parliament. We had visited there first but couldn't get in. Only the House of Lords was in session and the line was so long they had stopped letting anyone else "queue up" for awhile. That was okay with me. I wasn't up for waiting to listen to the gentry debate on bills they could only stall anyway.

We took the Undergound back to Kensington and have begun to prepare for British security at Heathrow Airport and US Customs back in the States. We leave for the airport about 7 am tomorrow morning but our plane doesn't leave until 10:25 local time (assuming we go on time). We are back in Chicago about 1 pm CDT. Then we deal with the joys which is the GWB's Dept. of Homeland Security US Customs and Border Protection Agency. I'll be on my best behavior so they'll let me back in the country. I'll only think awful things about the current failure of a president.

Hope you have enjoyed my trip blogging. Add a comment please and tell me. Who knows when I'll blog again, but it won't be from nearly as interesting a spot as I've had the great pleasure of enjoying in the UK.

One last picture from the Tower of London just for fun.

2008-07-16T16:41:00.009-05:00

Photos Take Two

These are a few photos from our trip so far. Could post lots more, but those with dial-up will have to wait long enough as it is.

Shakespeare's Home in Stratford-on-Avon (July 13, 2008)

From the Battle Proms (July 12, 2008)

A Spitfire buzzes the field.

Napoleonic era cavalry walk about.

All of the action is held on a field at Burghley House.

Lincoln Cathedral taken from the top of the wall at Lincoln Castle (July 11, 2008)

I didn't take as many pictures in Bath, but I bought more stuff. Janet went Jane Austen crazy and we all had a marvelous time. We stopped at Stonehenge for a "photo op" on the way to Salisbury Cathedral and the last choir concert. We are now in our Imperial College dorm rooms in the Kensington section of London. We are literally down the street from the British National Museum, the Victoria and Albert Museum and the Royal Albert Hall. After arriving and getting checked in, almost a dozen folks trusted me to correctly read my street map toward Harrod's. I got everyone there and back. It was very easy once I correctly figured out where we were starting from. Now people think I know my way around. Very frightening.

Tomorrow Janet and I are off to a Doctor Who exhibition (our geekiness must be fed after all those cathedrals) and probably some of the nearby museums (which are free) and a bit of Hyde Park as well if it's not raining. Friday we have St. Paul's, Westminister and the London Tower all on the list of places we want to see. We'll get as much as we can in before heading to the airport very early Saturday morning. Not nearly enough time for anything more than a touch of London, but with so much else done we can't complain much.

2008-07-15T10:11:00.002-05:00

I have the best sister, ever! by Janet

Tuesday in, as the British say, Baaath. All day to do anything thing we want and what I wanted to do was anything Jane Austen related and Barb is letting me. That is why she is the BEST SISTER EVER!

Barb had scouted out things yesterday while the group went to Bristol to see the Charles Wesley home and the "New House," what is considered the first Methodist Church. Then we "dipped our toes" in Wales and thanks to my step-sister, Becky, I am bring a special present back from there. (more details on that when I get back to the States.)

This morning Barb and I walked around Bath using the book she had bought me, "Jane Austen's Bath" to locate places Jane would have seen and gone. (We did take two side trips. We had tea and a bun at "Sally Lunn's" and a side trip to the "House of Bears." Barb and I each picked one up.

My bear came with the name "Lilly" and her eyes seem to follow you. I hope two thing when I add her to my collection, that I can put her high enough that the cats will not get to her and that some morning I don't find her next to me in my bed; I hope that I do not find she had the ablity to walk around by herself, she seems so life-like.

We ended our morning tour with, what else, tea at the Jane Austen Center. (and of course spending money at the gift shop.) 18 months ago when I started talking to Barb about the trip, I told her that I would follow her around and do anything thing that she wanted me to do while we are in Britain but, she HAD to come with me for high tea at the Jane Austen Center and I would "play Mum" or pour the tea.

We had the "Tea with Mr. Darcy" selection and the Jane Austen Tea. Finger sandwiches, scones and two kinds of cake. I only had to tell Barb once to keep her elbows off the table but I now how a big food stain on my top (silly Americans) but all in all I am having a great time and am so glad that I "jumped the pond."

2008-07-14T10:43:00.002-05:00

Sorry No Photos

I think I need a better connection than the Wifi offers me here to upload photos. I promise to get something to you when I can.

Now for some random thoughts on Britain and the British.

The countryside is gorgeous. The green rolling hills of England in summer are beautiful. We've not hit any cities since leaving Manchester airport and gotten a great view of the beauty of the country. If the photo upload would work, I'd show you.

Britons are as nice and friendly as their Canadian cousins. So far everyone has been very kind and friendly to us. This is true even when we are a hoard of 67 Americans heading off somewhere all at once. I even got my first "cheers" today from the fellow at the "newsagent" shop when I picked up a newspaper. As the Brits say, "Everything is lovely."

The British need to settle on a unit of measure system. They mix up their measurements and I'm not talking about keeping the pint for beer. Liquid is routinely down in metric. You see it on bottles and we've been trying to correctly calculate the price of gas into American dollars and gallons from about 1 pound 20 a liter. Our best guess is somewhere between 9 and 11 dollars a gallon. Distance, however, is in miles and yards on road signs. Speed limits are in MPH. Then there is weight. On the tour of Burghley House the tour guide was trying to tell us the weight of a giant silver piece and had to convert from the Old English measure of stones into pounds.

All together that makes 3 different systems in one country. I don't know why, but maybe after giving up farthings and shillings in their money to go on a decimal system they resisted any further conformity.

Finally, even if the dollar hadn't been decimated by W's continuing failures, it would be expensive here. Janet and I have have tried to not do automatic conversions every time. We try to save it for things we are debating purchasing. For example, I didn't even ask for the price on my single malt scotch at last night's dinner. I was going to have it and I didn't care about the price. For Janet, that applies to many of the Jane Austen items we will be seeing tomorrow.

Time to go. Hopefully more tomorrow.

2008-07-13T15:57:00.002-05:00

So Much Too Say...

I don't think it is possible to tell you all about the last 3 days. We are in Bath now where the wifi is more reasonable and I can post more. Among the sites we have seen in detail besides the Lincoln Cathedral I mentioned previously, was the Lincoln Castle which is on the opposite side of the square from the cathedral. (Sorry, no great links to that one for you.) There you see remnants of a castle begun during Norman times and later turned into a gaol (jail) for male and female prisoners and for public executions. Plus, the castle contains Lincolnshire's copy of the Magna Carta. One of four of the first copies made and sedt around the country. Appropriately it is housed in the old gaol. I was a bit confused by another copy in the cathedral that didn't get much attention from our tour guide or anyone else. Turns out that is a "facsimile on leather." Don't know how old it is, but it is not the official copy for Lincolnshire. I walked the walls of the castle and saw why the location was a militarily strategic spot. You can see for miles and miles. I've got great shots of the countryside and the cathedral from the walls and an observatory tower that one of the prison administrators built for his telescope in the 19th Century. I'll try to post pictures tomorrow when I have more time.

Also did some shopping and eating on the High Street in Lincoln which also hooks into Steep Street up toward the Castle Hill. This street earns it nickname of "Heart Attack Hill." The shopping close to the castle square was particularly good as it was all local independent shops and not chain stores. I've already seen enough McDonald's, KFC, Gap, and Starbucks. We even found one called Hillbilly's Country Store. The clothes inside didn't seem to really be hillbilly clothes by Ozark standards, but I took a picture of the shop sign any way.

We did much of one day in Lincoln in the rain, but yesterday we got wonderful weather to visit Burghley House which was built by Elizabeth I's key advisor Lord Burghley (William Cecil). The house is now in a trust, but the Cecil family is still connected to it. We saw much of the first floor rooms with all the ornateness and collections of the landed gentry from Elizabethian times into the 20th Century. The artwork was marvelous, the furnishings often lavish and the craftsmanship of the builders as magnificent as at the Lincoln Cathedral. For my overly political mind, it was all too much and a clear example that Americans have no real sense of class divisions of this sort or the kind of fuedal societies that created both structures.

That night the Burghley House hosted what is likely to be our most unique event during our stay here. We saw a Battle Prom. The Battle Proms are concerts held each summer in several places across the country. They are a mix of great music and patriotism. We saw reenactors in Napoleanic era infantry and calvary dress. There was a Spitfire buzzing the field. There was fireworks and British patriotic songs as well as more classical numbers. There were thousands of British folks waving Union Jacks and the English flag and having a great time. It got very cool as the night war on and when the fellow in the Scot Highlander outfit walked by we did discuss if he was "going traditional" under his kilt and how cold that must be. It made a long day, but a glorious one.

This morning we drove out of Lincoln for two brief stops in Stratford-on-Avon and Oxford. We had only a couple of hours at Stratford to see the Shakespeare sites, but Janet and I did make it through the small museum next to his home and saw a First Folio. The next person who sees Miss Wall should mention that part of the trip to her. She told us in high school it was something we should do. I also found my first English Christmas shop in Stratford and bought an adorable music box with teddy bears spinning around as "Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas" plays.

The trip to Oxford was also very short. We got a speed tour of Christchurch College at Oxford where John and Charles Wesley attended. Didn't get any time to explore or shop. Only time for a hurried tour to see the banquet hall (used by the Harry Potter movie makers for a model of Hogwart's Great Hall), the cathedral (took a picture of a memorial to John Locke and more stained glass), and head a number of stories of the connection between the little girl who Lewis Carrol used for Alice in Wonderland and the college. For a lifelong lover of universities, it was a frustrating stop. Maybe another time I'll wonder about for days in Oxford.

Now we are in Bath and tomorrow the choir is off to sing in the world's oldest Methodist Church in Bristol and then "dip their toes in Wales" afterwards. Janet is going along for that while I'll stay here and explore Bath a bit on my own. On Tuesday Janet gets her Jane Austen exploration and we'll check out the Roman Baths. I'll just see what I can find beyond those things tomorrow and also blog some more. Hopefully with pictures next time.

2008-07-10T13:33:00.002-05:00

Briefly from Lincoln, UK

The internet connection is a bit expensive here so I probably won't get as much up as I planned unless I can get the free wifi around here to work. But here it is so far...

We got off the ground in Chicago only after over an 1 1/2 hour delay due to fuel miscalculations. In other words, we needed more fuel than first calculated and it took them two trucks and a visit from a supervisor to get it done. Weary, but excited after a 7 hour flight, we arrived in Manchester about 8 am local time. The trip through customs was long only because of our numbers on the plane. Once the Brits figured out we had 65 on the plane in the same group they got us through quickly. Then it was onto our doubledecker bus and off into the countryside. We took the more scenic route into the Peak National Park which includes the town of Bakewell. The scenery was gorgeous and the stop in Bakewell too brief to really get to see the place, but we did pick up some treats to fortify ourselves along the way.

Our next stop was Nottingham for a brief look at Robin Hood's legendary home. We walked up to the Nottingham castle and saw the statue and a bit of the grounds, but didn't have time for enjoy the tour. Instead, we hit the Castle pub across the street for some very good food and then walked about the shops nearby. I didn't find any trinkets worth my British pounds, but Janet picked up a few things, particularly postcards. Nottingham near the Robin Hood tourist area has the look and feel of a city still working on the transition away from its manufacturing past. We had little time to really see the place because it was back on the bus and on to Lincoln.

Lincoln is our spot for the next three days, but tonight we are just trying to catch up on the sleep we lost flying over here. Haven't looked around at all yet. I was more interested in a bath and a rest. We may have some tea before bed or we may just go to sleep. Tomorrow we tour the massive Lincoln Cathedral before the choir's first concert. It promises to be a big day.

Now I got to rest.

2008-07-03T18:39:00.003-05:00

Watch This Space

I travel to Britain for the first time on July 9th. I intend to update my travels here. I'll be visiting Lincoln, Nottingham, Bath, Stonehenge, Oxford, Salisbury and London. About half of those stops will be brief and some unplanned exploring or just hanging out with Brits is hoped for as well. Physically I'll need some set rest time so that will give me time for blogging and I've already checked and where we are staying will have internet connections available.

2008-04-03T20:51:00.002-05:00

April Joy

The following is not a mirage. I got it from espn.com

CENTRAL	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	STRK	L10
Kansas City	3	0	1.000	-	0-0	3-0	13	5	Won 3	3-0
Cleveland	2	1	.667	1	2-1	0-0	18	12	Lost 1	2-1
Chicago Sox	1	2	.333	2	0-0	1-2	12	18	Won 1	1-2
Minnesota	1	3	.250	2.5	1-3	0-0	8	17	Lost 3	1-3
Detroit	0	3	.000	3	0-3	0-0	5	13	Lost 3	0-3

A hundred years after Cy Young, pitching is still king in baseball. The Royals top 3 starters, Gil Meche, Brian Bannister and Zack Grienke are actually good. Thus, the 3-0 start and hope springs eternal that there will be more happiness in Kaufman Stadium this year.

By the way, the Royals are the only remaining undefeated in the majors.

2008-04-02T20:02:00.003-05:00

Hottest Ticket in Grand Forks Since Cher

This Friday the North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party will have its state convention. Usually this events interest about 500 of the 1000 Democrats who attend. This year, however, both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are speaking at the convention. According to the Grand Forks Herald, the Alerus Center (an indoor football stadium/event center) is expecting about 16,000 people. This is the biggest crowd in the Alerus since "Cher packed the house with about 20,000 in 2002." It is the biggest political event in North Dakota in decades.

Sen. Obama's attendance is not a surprise. He won the state's caucus by a wide margin and has been endorsed by the entire congressional delegation who are 3 of the 6 superdelegates from the state who have declared for Obama. There is only one undeclared. His appearance includes a reception with those willing to pay $100 for the privilege. It should be an excellent fundraiser for the state party. The surprise was when Sen. Clinton followed his acceptance of the invitation to attend with one of her own about 5 days later. This has set off great speculation on why she's following him to a state where she lost and, honestly, isn't very popular even among Democrats. Plus, she is going to follow Obama by about an hour on Friday evening and if significant numbers of folks leave after Obama speaks it will look very bad.

So, what' s my speculation? I'll go with the idea that she is doing this with an eye on the national media attention this unusual visit will get and is also acting with an eye to November. The latter, however, is not about North Dakota, instead her eye is on neighboring Minnesota. This will be the first re-visit to a state whose vote has passed for any reason besides fundraising for either candidate. If only Obama was coming, it would get some attention and, perhaps, Clinton did not want to let him have the spotlight alone. Of course, now it will get much more attention since events where both candidates appear are rare. Plus, North Dakota media bleeds into Minnesota which is a battleground state in November. The Democratic nominee wants Minnesota in November and the time before the Pennsylvania primary makes it easy to make a quick stop in Grand Forks. Again, with both of them attending I think Twin Cities media and South Dakota (a late primary state) will also be in attendance. For Hillary, this is free media in a time of tighter money and a chance to say "I may have lost in North Dakota (and Minnesota), but I still want your support if I'm the nominee."

There are a few, slightly delusional, Obama supporters in North Dakota who think he can make the state competitive. I doubt that. (I believe the last Democrat to carry North Dakota was FDR.) But given his support for expanding the party, coming to North Dakota is a sign that the small states he has won won't be forgotten. One of his arguments to the remaining undeclared superdelegates is that he is better for "down ballot" races in states that have been tough for Democrats. His ability to draw in a place like Grand Forks is another sign of the possibility of expanding the vote in ways that could make that prediction come true. The 16,000 number is only slightly higher than the 15,000 that was expected with just him. Clinton is not seen as substantially expanding the attendance. For the North Dakota Democrats it is all gravy.

Whatever the reasons for either candidate, it will be quite an evening in a city that most of the country last saw in 1997 when a fire igniting during the middle of the biggest flood in a century.

I am within driving distance and intend to be there. I'll try to post my report on the event on Saturday.

2008-03-18T22:44:00.002-05:00

Brilliant

A friend asked me what is was about Barack Obama that creates such intensity. I didn't have much of an answer beyond the idea that he represented a chance for real change from the past 30 years of American politics. Today, Obama provided a much better answer by giving the best speech on race in America since the Civil Rights Movement ended. It is brave, intelligent, challenging and, honestly, it made me cry. (That's not that hard.) He introduced white America to the lingering anger of blacks and black America to the resentment of many whites. He dared the media to stop playing games and actually discuss the issue. He challenged us all to actually go forward on the issue which we have avoided since Dr. King was murdered.

If you haven't read it or heard it go here. If you want to see it go here.

I have spent my life in white America. My connections with other cultures is mostly peripheral. However, I was blessed with two parents who knew all the ugliness of growing up in segregated, racist America who taught me tolerance and respect for all. I have seen too much casual exploitation of race for humor, attention and an excuse for failure. Overwhelmingly what I have experienced personally is from whites because of my limited experiences, but I make no claim that the problem being only among whites. My view, like Obama's, is that the problem belongs to all of us and requires all of us to overcome.

My view is also that he is the best shot we've got to have a president with the courage to challenge us to do it.

2008-03-04T14:45:00.002-06:00

Can't Win for Losing

My predictions for tonight's primaries are a split with Ohio and Rhode Island for Clinton and Texas and Vermont for Obama. The delegate count won't change much but Clinton folks will claim victory and their intention to continue.

That's tonight. What happens as March continues and the stories mount on the difficulty of catching Obama in pledged delegates (more here) and more of the establishment Democrats want to finish off the process and move ahead? Hillary Clinton has been put into a substantial hole since Feb. 5th and there just aren't many changes left to play catch up. Even if she wins the Texas popular vote in the primary part of their process, she could still end up with fewer delegates than Obama in the state due to the caucus part. Even if she wins Ohio by 5% she'll not add many delegates given the Democrats proportional system. In the phrase of my Missouri youth, she can't win for losing.

This is her own fault. Her campaign went for the early knockout on Feb. 5th and didn't get it. She went for big states and ignored too many places where he has racked up votes and delegates. She had no plan to try to hold significant numbers of African American voters and didn't seem to expect his appeal among white male voters at all. She has relied on her base to get her this far and they might get her 3 victories tonight, but they can't get her the nomination. She needs an intervention.

The intervention she wants is a Obama tumble on the basis of something, they don't care what, that turns him into a damaged candidate who is no longer seen as viable in November. If that miracle occurs, the superdelegates return to her and the nomination can be hers. Here's the catch. She can't create the damage. If she is seen as going so negative with no goal but to destroy Obama it may blow up in her face.

The intervention that is more likely are of various Democratic establishment types contacting her campaign and reaching out to her through the media to tell her to figure out a way to bow out gracefully. Hillary Clinton's role as leader in the Democratic party will not end with a loss in this presidential primary season. She can be a senator from New York as long she likes and can turn that role in a very powerful position for years to come.

I don't buy those who claim a Clinton will cling to the campaign forever. Hillary Clinton is an extremely intelligent woman and has shown herself to have above average political acumen. She doesn't have Bill's excellent ear to the public, but she is a much better campaigner than I thought she would be. If Obama had decided to skip this race, she would have cruised but he is there and he has done so well to date that she needs more than close victories on one night in March.

2008-02-17T22:47:00.002-06:00

Why?

Why is it after every campus or school shooting, the response ranges from providing more guns for everyone to having us all constantly under camera surveillance? These tragedies are so often an example of how much easier it is for someone in this country to get guns than to get adequate mental health treatment. Can we please address that problem?

I'll tell you about Albuquerque tomorrow unless work bogs me down.

2008-02-12T18:09:00.000-06:00

Hello from Albuquerque

I am in Albuquerque attending a conference and dropped in to say "hi" to my vast number of readers. This isn't a political science conference. It is a popular/American culture conference where I am presenting a project with a computer science professor about memes and political blogs. It will be very different for me, but it will be fun.

Albuquerque's downtown is not really bustling, but I did go to a Brazilian Grille restaurant that was recommended to me and it was fantastic. For $11.95 I got a tremendous salad bar, plus my choice of whatever meat, etc. that I wanted from a server bring in it over on skewers. Since I hadn't eaten since breakfast at the Minneapolis airport, I splurged. I had a fried banana, which is better than it sounds since it wasn't state fair food. I had roasted pineapple with some sort of glaze on it. I had sirloin. I had fish. I had what must be Brazilian bbq. I didn't catch the names, but if you are interested go to Tucanos website (no link as it is not currently working) and see for yourself. I highly recommend it, if you are ever in Albuquerque.

Now that I am stuffed and sleepy from heading to the airport at 5:30 in the morning, I am going to spend the evening lounging in my hotel room. I'll watch the sun change the colors on the mountains in the distance. I'll watch Obama sweep through Virginia, Maryland and DC. I'll probably be asleep early.

The panels start at 10 am and I'm heading for one on law and the Internet. Later in the day I'll head for a panel featuring presentations on online TV show fans and the depiction of war on TV. I am going to get my education expanded over the rest of the week. This is an academic conference so this is overwhelmingly professors talking TV, sci-fi/fantasy, native American culture, Shakespeare, feminism, theater, gaming and Will Rogers. We revel in our geekdom this week.

2008-02-06T00:26:00.000-06:00

Missouri Wins

Supersized Super Tuesday is all but over (New Mexico is being slow) and on the Democratic side the night was a virtual tie. Obama won more states (13 as of this writing), but Hillary got the big prize of California. But if you want to understand where the contest is you just need to follow Missouri.

Only a couple of weeks ago, Hillary had a clear lead in Missouri. Pollster.com lists a poll done by the St. Louis Post Dispatch on January 21 - 24 showing Hillary with a 13 point lead in Missouri. Tonight in a classic Missouri squeaker, Obama scored a victory in Missouri by about 8000 votes. Obama turned around the state in about 2 1/2 weeks. As a bellwether state, Missouri is always a state to watch and it may be showing how the Democratic race is changing as we continue. Overall, Hillary won states where she worked the hardest and Obama did the same. Missouri was one state where they put in roughly equal effort of money and candidate time.
Obama used surrogates over the last week in California. He went to Missouri. The ad dollars, I am not sure about, but I had seen earlier that she had considerably more ads than he did in California while he ran slightly more in Missouri. I don't know if that is accurate, but my point is that where they most directly competing he overtook her big lead. Is this where Democrats are heading? The Clinton surrogates on TV tonight are arguing that she stopped his momentum. Obama's people are saying that his results should be seen in the light of where the polls had it before Iowa. Which is right may depend on the states that follow in the next week. Can Obama continue to dominate caucus states? There are 3 caucus states on the 9th and 10th. Who will take the primaries in Louisiana on the 9th and Virginia and Maryland on the 12th? I'll go out on a limb and give DC to Obama on the 12th.

You'll be seeing lots of delegate estimates on Wednesday, but the results in another week may show it better. Plus, I still await changes in news media spin. So far "tie" or "split" are the words being used the most, but new polls will affect who is seen as having "momentum." I still expect this to be settled well before the convention, but now more states get a say and the candidates continue to refine their message and their ads which should help whomever gets the nomination.

On the Republican side, McCain looks to be on his way to the nomination but has work to do to solidify the base. He is getting the boost from the Republican winner take all states like Missouri even when he just takes 1/3 of the vote. He will root for Hillary to be the Democratic nominee and have the ridiculous Clinton hatred among Republicans unify the party.

It is now 1:45 am so I quit and just hope this makes some sense.

2008-02-04T23:41:00.000-06:00

Clueless

The title is not a reference to my Super Bowl prediction. I had much better information for that then I do for this post. The title refers to how I feel going into Supersized Super Tuesday on who will do what in the Democratic race. Earlier today I made myself a chart to look at the contests and declared my views on who has leading going into election day. Please note all the "no clue" comments. I'll give an overview at the end.

States listed alphabetically under closing hour of polls. I only know closing time of the North Dakota caucus which is a simple go in and vote caucus. All times are Central.

6:00 PM Closing

Georgia Primary Leans Obama

7:00 PM Closing

Alabama Primary Leans Clinton

Connecticut Primary Toss Up

Delaware Primary No clue

Illinois Primary Strong Obama

Massachusetts Primary Leans Clinton/Toss Up

Missouri Primary Leans Clinton/Toss up

New Jersey Primary Leans Clinton

Oklahoma Primary Leans Clinton supposedly but really no clue

Tennessee Primary Leans Clinton

7:30 PM Closing

Arkansas Primary Strong Clinton

8:00 PM Closing

Arizona Primary Toss Up I guess

North Dakota Caucuses No clue

New York Primary Strong Clinton

9:00 PM Closing

Utah Primary No clue

10:00 PM Closing

California Primary Leans Clinton/Toss Up

Caucuses without clear closing time

Alaska Caucuses No clue

Colorado Caucuses Maybe Obama

Idaho Caucuses No clue/Maybe Obama

Kansas Caucuses No clue/Maybe Obama

Minnesota Caucuses No clue

New Mexico Caucuses No clue/Maybe Clinton

Not very illuminating, is it. I've tried to follow what polls are available, but they are all over the place. Go to pollster.com and check for yourself. Many states have one poll from sources I don't know or with no knowledge how they screen for "likely voters." The only poll out from Minnesota didn't even try to screen for likely voters. This is part of the reason the news media has focused on national surveys. The other reason is that those polls show the race closing and that excites we political geeks and our brothers and sisters in the news media. National polls, however, don't translate into individual state results. Obama is gaining support, but where? Which states will he be able to pull away from her? I have no clue. The only states I am convinced about among the above are the few I've marked as "strong" for one or the other. The "maybe" designation is based only on what I've picked up from folks in those states or where one or the other candidate has gone without the other making an appearance.

Political results are frequently judged by perception over reality. I'll watch the coverage not just for who wins what states or how the delegates get divided. I'll watch for what the meme will be for the stories the next day and the next on who "won." Right now, I would say that unless Hillary is showing very strongly or Obama is shocking the world with wins in unexpected places like New Jersey and Tennessee, then whoever wins California will be declared the "winner." It will be the last big state to close and may not be decided until after midnight my time. The later it gets the more it may affect the news media spin. With 6 states to follow over the next week, the impact could be significant. I still expect a clear "expected nominee" within the next month. Given my prediction history so far this month, however, please don't use my supposed expertise for any actually betting.

2008-02-02T22:34:00.000-06:00

Super Bowl Sunday

I know I have watched every Super Bowl since Super Bowl IV in January 1970. I may have watched the first 3, but my memory only begins with my beloved Chiefs' win over the
Vikings in Super Bowl IV. It was the last game played by an AFL team as the two leagues merged the next season. It solidified AFL teams as equals. No one could call the Jets win of the year before as a fluke after the Chiefs won 23 -7. In those days the game started in mid-afternoon. I remember thinking it took forever to get the game started and I'm sure I drove my parents and siblings to distraction that day. It was the greatest day in my first 7 years on the planet.

It's been a long time since the Chiefs glory days, but I still follow them intently and love watching all the football I can on fall weekends. I own a satellite dish largely because it allows me to get the NFL package and see all the games. Now I even pay for the HD package. HD is most noticeable in sports broadcasts and nature shows. The average sitcom is not much different on HD. This will be my first Super Bowl with HD and I am hoping the extra camera work the game has will be even more fun with HD.

This will be the 10th year of my Super Bowl Party. I am not someone who is big on parties, especially organizing them myself. However, 10 years ago I just couldn't face the Packers/Broncos game without help. So I invited several friends to join me. Nothing spectacular. I provide the drinks and a few snacks. They bring other food and we watch the game, talk and just have a good time. My house confines the number to 6 or 7 people each year, but I am happy to say that everyone seems to look forward to the party. I tell them that it'll be an annual event until my Chiefs get back to the game. On that day, just like when I was 7, you'll not really want to be around me. Until then I'll have my little party and enjoy sharing the game with a few friends.

I'll be rooting for the Patriots to finish their undefeated season. I will do this for two reasons: 1) I want to see history and hope we get a better game than when the Dolphins did it in 1972. That was a really boring game even though it was close with a final of 14-7. 2)The 1972 Dolphins have irritated all of us long enough on how great they were. They were undefeated, but they weren't even the best team of that decade much less of all time. Since 1985 they've made a bit too much of how they celebrate the loss of the last undefeated team. They need to share the distinction of being undefeated and learn a bit of humility and sportsmanship after all these years.

Oh yeah, New England's a better team than the Giants and I don't think they'll blow perfection now.

Now I will make my annual attempt to name all the Super Bowl winners in order. I am usually good until the late 1980's when I seemed to have stopped wanting to remember much until the late 1990's. It overlaps with my years living in Texas, so I'll blame it on that state affecting my mind. You can check my effort on Superbowl.com to see how I did. You'll have to trust me when I post the update on my score after checking on my work myself.

I Packers over Chiefs
II Packers over Raiders
III Jets over Baltimore Colts
IV Chiefs over Vikings
V Baltimore Colts over Cowboys
VI Cowboys over Dolphins
VII Dolphins over Redskins
VIII Dolphins over Vikings
IX Steelers over Vikings
X Steelers over Cowboys
XI Oakland Raiders over Vikings
XII Cowboys over Broncos
XIII Steelers over Cowboys
XIV Steelers over LA Rams
XV Oakland Raiders over Eagles
XVI 49ers over Bengals
XVII Redskins over Dolphins
XVIII LA Raiders over Redskins
XIX 49ers over Dolphins
XX Bears over Patriots
XXI Giants over Broncos
XXII Redskins over Broncos
XXIII 49ers over Bengals
XXIV 49ers over Broncos
XXV Giants over Bills
XXVI Redskins over Bills
XXVII Cowboys over Bills
XXVIII Cowboys over Bills
XXIX 49ers over Chargers
XXX Cowboys over Steelers
XXXI Packers over Patriots
XXXII Broncos over Packers
XXXIII Broncos over Falcons
XXXV Ravens over Giants
XXXIV St. Louis Rams over Titans
XXXVI Patriots over St. Louis Rams
XXXVII Bucs over Oakland Raiders
XXXVIII Patriots over Carolina
XXXIX Patriots over Eagles
XL Steelers over Seahawks
XLI Indianapolis Colts over Bears

I think I've gotten the winners, but not sure about a couple of the losers. I'll be back after I check the official list.

Update: I mixed up Super Bowl XI and XII. I'll blame that on not wanting to remember when the Raiders finally won a Super Bowl. Lots of mistakes beginning in late 1980s so I've put all my corrected answers in blue. My errors seem to be correlated with AFC West teams. I want to forget the first time any of them got to the big game and want the Broncos to have lost more than they actually did.

2008-01-28T23:52:00.000-06:00

A Liberal Lion, A Big Dog and a Lame Duck

The two big stories today are the endorsement by Teddy Kennedy and Caroline Kennedy of Barack Obama and W's last State of the Union. On MSNBC, the after speech commentary was as much about the former as it was the latter. Score one for the Liberal Lion (Teddy) over the Lame Duck (W).

First, I must admit I didn't watch the speech. I can't watch much of W at this stage. It takes him about 2 sentences to send me into a swearing rant aimed at no one that accomplishes nothing beyond scaring my cats. It is better for me and the kitties not to watch. I see highlights. I watch the "post-game." I read the news stories. I don't watch. The initial reaction of the talking heads was that the speech was pedestrian at best. The words "same old" followed by ideas, phrases, themes, etc. filled the airwaves and early writings on the speech. More war. More tax cuts. I was left wondering who would make the first joke that the speech was so poor because W's speech writing staff had joined the writer's strike in Hollywood. Maybe W should have returned to the original tradition of just sending the Congress a letter on the State of the Union.

More TV commentators wanted to talk about The Teddy and Barack Show from earlier in the day. That event was much more exciting and Teddy, who has been in the Senate as long as I've been alive, was a feisty old liberal today. Teddy is no longer the symbol of new ideas for a new generation. He is still a symbol of the liberal heart of the Democratic Party that dreams of using the power of government to serve the least amongst us. And Teddy mustered some of the old fire today in his speech and be aimed it right at the Clinton campaign and its top surrogate, "The Big Dog."

For those of you who don't know, Bill Clinton is known as The Big Dog among Democrats, particularly among liberal bloggers. It is a term of endearment for the most powerful campaigner in the party. Even Clinton's most vehement enemies admit that he is a powerful force on the campaign. Hillary Clinton has sought to use that force for her presidential campaign. After she lost Iowa, you started see a lot more of Bill. However, the South Carolina primary campaign coverage included a number of stories that there was concern among Democrats that he was being too much of an attack dog against Obama.

Obama has no one to match Bill on the campaign trail and Teddy and Caroline's endorsement doesn't change that fact. I do tend to agree with those who see Teddy as possibly the voice to assure those voters among the Democratic base who have hesitated about Obama. I suspect you will see Teddy's voice in ads and his face at a few events aimed at the older Democrats, particularly women and Hispanic Democrats and those Democrats with less education and less income. These subsets of Democrats have shown more trust in the Clinton name and record to date and have been part of Hillary's winning formula in the two states she has won. These Democrats may have some of their fears about Obama assuaged by assurances from Teddy. Teddy's efforts for Obama will not mean the Big Dog will be silenced or that Hillary is in "big trouble." But Obama does now have a powerful surrogate who leads older Democrats in particular to stop and listen for a moment. Obama will have to follow through on any openings the connection to the Kennedy still provides. He must find ways to adjust his message to fit a short campaign in 22 states. Obama's message and organization has shown power in Iowa and S. Carolina where he had time to build some connections with voters. The campaign over the next week is now about the short bursts of attention of 30 to 60 second ads and TV news stories. Whatever platform of attention a Teddy Kennedy or anyone else can provide must lead enough of those Democrats that have leaned to Hillary to reconsider and then make the change toward him. We'll find out how he's doing on Feb. 5th.

As for the Republicans, Florida appears to be a two-man race between Romney and McCain. I am wondering if early voting could tip the scale. Did enough early voters already choose McCain to keep Romney at bay?

As the temperature here once again heads below zero for several days. I'll use politics and football to distract me from the cold.

2008-01-26T20:31:00.000-06:00

South Carolina and Beyond

After a week in which Bill Clinton got as much media attention as Hillary and news organizations tried to turn a primary debate tussle into a permanent rift in the Democratic Party, Barak Obama has emerged with the biggest margin of victory in any contested election so far. Plus, the Democrats once again demonstrated the "excitement gap" over the Republicans by having more voters in their primary than the Republicans could muster. This in a very Republican state. By the time all the votes are counted, Obama alone may top the 290,000 total among all Democratic contenders in South Carolina in 2004.

We have now had 4 contested states with 2 going to Obama and 2 to Hillary Clinton. The campaign now goes to the Supersized Super Tuesday on February 5th where the Democrats have primaries and caucuses in 22 states across the country (Republicans compete in 20 states). Retail politics ends and wholesale politics emphasizing TV ads and targeting states to end up being declared the overall "winner" on that night begins. With this very impressive win tonight, the news media I'm hearing on TV is already lurching back to the power of Obama's message after lurching toward the power of the Clinton machine since the New Hampshire primary. The truth is, either one of these candidates can win this nomination. Nothing is settled, but February 5th will have too many states not to have a lot of say in who gets the nominations for both parties.

You may have already heard or read how highly unlikely it will be that a candidate for either party will come out of Feb. 5th with enough delegates to win the nomination. Mathematically that is true, however presidential primaries aren't just about math. If one candidate is seen to have a set of victories that represent a "strong win" on that night, it will get increasingly difficult to stop that candidate. Democrats will have 6 more state caucuses and primaries the week following February 5th. The declared "winner" from Feb. 5th should be able to build momentum toward a view that he/she is "inevitable" with wins in most of those 6 states. The other candidates will begin to hear grumblings that they are standing in the way of unifying the party and the primary season would begin to come to a close.

Clinton leads in California, New York and New Jersey which are the only states with any recent polling. Those 3 states have lots of delegates and will get lots of attention, but Hillary's the senator from New York and should be expected to win there very easily. New Jersey may be read the same way, but it does have an anti-New York streak in it that may make it interesting. California is also a states where Democrats loved Bill Clinton and has been seen as a stronghold for Hillary. That state's race is the big prize of the night with the current expectations favoring Hillary, but California Democrats like to consider themselves as leading change not delaying it. Illinois as Obama's home state will be his. Even a big win there won't get him much credit.

That leaves 18 other states in which we have no real evidence on where the race stands. Four states I will watch closely to start will be Arizona, Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota. All 4 will be states the Democrats want in November. They represent a mix of voters that are important to Democrats and where they hope to gain in congressional and state elections this year. Who do those voters see as the best to put at the top of the ticket for taking back the White House and making other Democratic gains? Who's message will reach more voters in these states which have gotten very little attention to date, but will get a lot of attention in the fall? I haven't looked to see which have open versus close primaries. I do know Minnesota is a caucus, but have no idea if that favors Clinton over Obama. I haven't seen much on who has what level of organizing in any of those states. The unknowns make it all the more exciting.

I'll post information I find interesting as I find it. Please pass along anything good to me that I might not see. The political excitement will help me avoid the ridiculous sports coverage that leads up to the Super Bowl. I'll probably post on that this week as well.

2008-01-20T21:40:00.000-06:00

Super Bowl XLII

The game is set. It will be the 18 - 0 Patriots versus the red hot road warriors' in the New York Giants. This is a rematch from a more exciting than expected season finale. The Patriots have been expected in Arizona for this game since the season began. The Giants are the surprise. Archie Manning, whom I rooted for as kid as I watched him run for his life on endless bad teams, now has a second year in a row with a son in the Super Bowl. Eli Manning will be a big underdog unlike big brother Payton was last year. I'll root for the Patriots to finish the 19-0 record and silence the 1972 Dolphins forever. I'll also root for a good game to add to the entertainment of my annual Super Bowl party.

Will the New York fans finally love Eli? Will this be Strahan's final game? Will New England's evil genius coach, Bill Belichick, choose to have the team wear its road uniforms to get the Giants out of the road uniforms in which they've won 10 straight? Will Randy Moss' legal troubles be a distraction? How many reporters on media day will butcher the Patriots' kicker's name? Which presidential candidate will make a stupid comparison to themselves and one of these teams or the game first?

These and other inanities will occupy the next two weeks. If it begins to get you down, distract yourself with other news. The Supersized Super Tuesday primary day is two days after the Super Bowl. Plus, it is only a about week after the Super Bowl when pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training.

Sports and politics...my obsessions never let me get bored.

2008-01-18T22:54:00.000-06:00

The Night before Nevada (D) and S. Carolina (R)

We've got two more states tomorrow. One for the Democrats and one for the Republicans and I haven't got a real sense who'll win either. My guess (and that's all it is) is Clinton and McCain. Hillary in Nevada because the caucus system is new in Nevada and I figure she has the most experienced hands. However, if Obama has been building an organization in Nevada like he did in Iowa.... I don't know. On "The Colbert Report," Stephen Colbert used numbers from a Vegas oddsmaker and a roulette wheel to pick Obama as the winner. That may be the most accurate prediction mechanism I've seen. I'm counting on the military folks to pull it out for McCain, but if the conservative evangelicals like Huckabee's call to change the Constitution to reflect their view of God's will.... Personally, I'd like Fred Thompson to win just to continue the streak of a new Republican winner in each state. But does anyone know if he is actually campaigning actively? Is he just relying on "Law and Order" reruns to get him through the primaries?

If you're looking for a break from politics or trying to kill time until the football games start on Sunday (I'm rooting for the Patriots (sorry Dave) and don't care about the NFC), try out this site full of old articles from the magazines that once spread the word on the wonders of science. I played with it earlier tonight and distracted myself for a significant portion of the evening. For a while I forgot that it is going to be below zero here all weekend. I only need to get through 25 more days before I head for lovely Albuquerque. This weekend I'll think warm thoughts and stay indoors.

2008-01-11T18:37:00.000-06:00

New Hypothesis

I have been puzzling out a new hypothesis for Hillary's New Hampshire win. The focus has been on how she did better than the polls expected even though Obama did fairly close to what was expected. This fact forgets that there were other people on the ballot. In particular, John Edwards, based on my memory, didn't generate the votes projected for him either. This fits the view that Hillary's unexpected results came from women making less than $50,000, with no college degree and other demographic factors most associated with America's working class. Did these voters finally decide between Edwards and Clinton? The publicly available exit poll data doesn't reveal such a connection, but I believe it to be a hypothesis worthy of exploring, especially by the candidates' number crunchers. Hillary's victory speech sounded much more like Edwards' then she had to that point. Maybe she was already singing to this part of the Democratic choir.

By the way, I can't remember where I read it now, but I understand that pollsters are avoiding the Nevada caucuses out of fear of even greater failure. Unlike Iowa, there is no track record in Nevada for who will caucus and who will not so the pollster would be guessing at who the "likely voters" will be. The last data pollster.com has for its charts is from Dec. 6, 2007. Look for leaked data from the candidates' internal polling, but take all that info with the ton of salt it deserves.

2008-01-09T12:25:00.000-06:00

Who Helped Hillary Win

For an empirical look at what happened yesterday in New Hampshire, I'll be waiting for the professionals at pollster.com to analyze the data. I trust them the most to accurately examine the exit polls and see if my current view that pollsters underestimated the number of women who voted in the Democratic Primary in their likely voter models holds up.

The question being bandied about is why did so many women who decided in the final couple of days went for Hillary. Lots of media focus on Hillary's choking up answering a question on Monday. The rightwing that just hates Hillary see it as a successful manipulation of emotional female voters. Much of the traditional media seem to see it as her "connecting" with people for the first time and showing her "human side." Either that or women in a moment of female solidarity rallied to the tearful "sister."

I don't think so.

What the traditional media is missing is their own response to Monday's incident and to Hillary's briefly raised voice during the debate on Saturday. In both incidents they attributed it to her failure to "hold it together" and the word "meltdown" keep reappearing. This wasn't just on Fox News who would hate Hillary if she produced a cure for all cancers. This can be seen in print and TV journalists covering and analyzing the campaign. Glen Greenwald has some media snippets that reflect this as do other media focused blogs. The media first declared her too cold and calculating for the voters of Iowa. Then she was the angry spurned woman. Then the overly emotional woman. Yes I put in "woman"in those 2 sentences on purpose. Is this just misogyny? No. Most of it is lots of reporters don't like Hillary. There are too many reporters who are willing to ascribe the worst to anything she does because they don't like her. But she is the only female in the field and no one else has a nutcracker aimed at the humor level of 14-year-old boys.

My current view, completely without data, is that women Democratic voters in New Hampshire saw the media's reaction to Hillary's raised voice during the debate and "the tears" on Monday and got pissed off by it. I think they decided that she wasn't getting a fair shake so they would vote for her not because they don't like Obama, but because they do like Hillary and want to make sure the news media notices. They didn't rally to a friend just because she cried. They rallied to someone they see as being unjustly vilified for honest human reactions by a press corps they don't trust and see treating the first serious female challenger for the presidency unfairly. The news media may have made Hillary a downtrodden outsider for the first time in 16 years.

If I am a Hillary adviser, I'd tell her to run against the news media. Don't run away from them. Run at them. Take their questions but don't be afraid to challenge their assumptions about your actions or answers. Don't be a victim, but the "fighter" you claimed to be last night. The news media is never going to like Hillary so may as well rally supporters to fight the media hordes aligned against her. Go on Chris Matthews and make fun of his obsession with how she looks. Make humor the weapon to mock them and the image of yourself. Oh yeah, hide all those Clintonistas you've had around for 16 years and put out new faces. Those folks piss off Democrats.

If I find more empirical analysis that isn't being widely distrubted, I'll post it. Now I've got to go meet my new public policy class.

2008-01-08T22:18:00.000-06:00

Women Carry Hillary to Victory and Hand Pollsters Their Heads

By carrying women by a big number and having those women be about 57% of the electorate, Hillary pulled the upset. The pollsters had it as an easy win for Obama, but the Democratic women of New Hampshire put egg on their faces. The battle is on and with McCain's win on the New Hampshire side there is only one sure thing --- neither side has a front runner.

The Democrats do seem to be down to Obama vs. Clinton. She is the Comeback Gal now but he is still the most dramatic voice for change. There will be lots of analysis of whether he is too reliant on independents and she is now back in position to put it away on Feb. 5th. There will be other analysis wondering if she can sustain this or will the same concerns about her send Democrats reaching for the alternative. Which is it? Don't look at me. I don't know. I believed the New Hampshire polling.

I am hoping this will mean lots more people pay attention and lots more states have a real say. More competition makes for a better candidate. Clinton will like Edwards staying in the race and taking some anti-Clinton votes away, but I wonder how much he'll draw away. The focus will be all on them and I don't see where he gets attention again.

As for the Republicans, McCain may have killed off Romney but I hedge on that because of this year's weirdness. Rudy is happy as his "big state strategy" looks less stupid with no clear frontrunner. I still say he can't just wait for Florida. Huckabee will gladly leave the northeast and head for S. Carolina and his conservative evangelical friends. McCain heads for Michigan. This side is a big mess.

Oh and I give it 24 hours before there is political press speculation of "brokered conventions." Don't believe it. No one even knows how to do a brokered convention anymore. Someone on each side will emerge as a clear leader and stick. Super-sized Super Tuesday still looms on February 5th and there are multiple contest before that day. None will decide it, but "momentum" will be the word going into that day. What will I look for? How much anti-Clinton feeling is there among Democrats or can she sell herself as "real change?" Can Huckabee get beyond the conservative evangelicals or is he just the VP candidate as so many pundits say? Can McCain get back the Republicans in the base who have distrusted him for so many years? Will Guiliani's thin-skinned, authoritarian manner finally be seen by all? Why is Romney named for a baseball glove? Will Fred Thompson be seen actually campaigning again or will he decide he did better when he wasn't campaigning and decide to run a 19th Century style front porch campaign?

Okay, clearly I need to go to bed. Look for more snarky comments as the primaries continue.

2008-01-07T21:40:00.001-06:00

The Night Before New Hampshire

I'm back home and seeing the Obama organization continue to grow. After seeing a bit of his extraordinary organization in Iowa, I now see that he's reaching out to North Dakota too by opening 3 field offices in the state. No one else on the Democratic side has bothered with North Dakota and it is unlikely to help him carry the state if he wins the nomination, but it is an indication to me that he is looking well past tomorrow in New Hampshire or even South Carolina later in the month. I have looked for news on organization efforts in the morass of states set to vote on February 5th but I have not seen much. I suspect that the Clinton's and Guiliani's expect to get by with TV ads and some local TV and other media coverage. I am more impressed with Obama's efforts to build something for beyond Super-sized Super Tuesday. Another sign of this was hearing from an Obama worker in his Des Moines office on the day after the caucus say that none of his Iowa offices were closing. Instead they were to become phone centers. The Obama organization is building a truly national organization from nothing. They are not relying on his "rock star status" and the media coverage it generates. Rather they are building what is needed to compete in November.

The Democratic primary in New Hampshire does not look close at this point. I will be looking for hints from media and blogs on the exit polls during the afternoon from my campus office. I expect Obama to win easily as the "wave" continues and will only watch for the level of turnout and his totals versus Clinton and Edwards. I am more curious about the Republicans as I watch to see if McCain keeps enough independents from Obama to hold off Romney. Huckabee should be much farther down as he lacks the conservative evangelical Christians in New Hampshire that gave him victory in Iowa.

An Obama victory continues the swelling of his numbers in S. Carolina, other primary states and in national polls as well. The campaign will quickly become how either Clinton or Edwards can stop him. Clinton has money but needs to beat him somewhere. Edwards doesn't have lots of money but has already started to try to get voters to push aside Clinton and see it as as a two-man race. Either one will need something to get voters to question their backing Obama. They haven't found anything yet.

A McCain or Romney victory will clarify little among the Republicans. The next stop depends on how you see it. Michigan is first, but has the RNC withholding its delegates for busting past February 5th. S. Carolina then follows and the RNC is only withholding half of its delegates for breaking the alleged rules. It is possible for McCain or Romney to take Michigan and Huckabee takes S. Carolina and it is still all a muddle going into February 5th. Guiliani will think he still has a chance. Thompson may still hang about hoping they all kill each other and he is the last standing. But, again, what it really shows is that Republicans don't much care for any of them. Social conservatives don't trust Guiliani or Romney. Anti-immigrant nationalists don't like McCain or Huckabee and are torn on Guiliani because he isn't anti-immigration enough but they like the idea of "staying on the offensive" against other scary foreigners. The neo-cons who brought us the lovely Iraq War, the Patriot Act and expanding uncheckable presidential power despise Huckabee with a venom usually reserved for Bill and Hillary Clinton. The Democrats are sitting back and loving their pain.

I close with a line that captures the moment better than I can. It is another great line from Keith Olbermann from tonight's show, "Barack Obama is Tiger Woods."

2008-01-04T12:36:00.001-06:00

Perceptions

The day after the Iowa caucuses and Iowa has been returned to Iowans. The effect of last night now turns into what perceptions the news media emphasizes and the campaigns manage to use to their advantage. Hillary and Edwards finished almost equally in the caucuses but because she was behind the perception is already set that she was third. She didn't just lose to Obama, but to Edwards also and no one is paying much attention to Edwards. Edwards perception problem is just that. He just can't seem to get beyond being the third wheel on the stage. Obama has gotten lots of positives now but you already see and hear questions on whether he can stand up to the attacks that are expected now that he is the new "frontrunner."

On the Republican side, much of the initial perception is working for McCain as much as Huckabee. There is still serious doubt about Huckabee's ability to sell himself beyond the conservative evangelical faction in the Republican coalition. Romney's best hope might be that this perception holds and he is seen as the alternative to McCain whom many Republicans still don't trust. If Romney cannot gain such traction quickly and loses again on Tuesday, he is probably done for good. The overall perception on the Republican side is that Iowa only mixed things up again. There is no clarity to the race. Name a Republican and the discussion quickly turns to the difficulties he faces rather than how he can win.

Finally, the perception of more highly motivated Democrats has been reinforced by the 239,000 participants in the Democratic caucus. The Republican numbers were also up substantially but were still less than half of the number the Democrats turned out. Such results only keep Democrats fired up for what they hope will be a huge year.

2008-01-03T22:42:00.000-06:00

First Take on Iowa Caucuses

My laptop is acting up so I'll keep this short.

The votes are in and the winners are Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama. The Democrats will dominate the headlines with a black man winning an overwhelming white state and having over 230,000 voters participating. The Republican evangelical conservatives demonstrated their power within the Republican Party by turning out to vote for the Baptist preacher.

The big headline is Obama and the Democrats. It will be tough to stop him in New Hampshire and Clinton and Edwards need to find a place to win before February 5th. Obama also took advantage of the attention by giving the most polished speech I've ever seen this early in the process. He took advantage to spread his broad message to anyone who slipped into the news at 11 pm Eastern and 10 pm Central for a look at the winner. He appealed well beyond the next stop in New Hampshire, but made sure he had a few references aimed at the first primary in the nation. It was a very smart move from an campaign that must now deal with the slings and arrows of frontrunner status.

2008-01-03T16:40:00.000-06:00

Late Afternoon in Des Moines on Caucus Day

Didn't see any candidates today. They are making only a few appearances. Did spend a little time downtown and tried to catch a few observations of campaigns and media.

We ate lunch close to where Hillary will have her party tonight. Saw a number of her people walking about and caught one comment that may or may not be significant. Among 3 women who fit the core Hillary supporter according to polls, one said to the other two, "Keep the faith." Now this may mean nothing, but watching the media today and listening to Hillary's folks drop expectations for tonight throughout the day, I wonder if I caught a bit of the worry amongst the Hillary gang.

Obama headquaters had a lot of people going in and out as we passed by today. The campaign is reportedly telling out-of-sate volunteers to go home as they have plenty of people. In fact, they have so many, that we saw 4 Obama volunteers waving signs at passing cars on a street corner far from downtown and the news media hordes. I wanted to stop and ask them who they were, why they were there and how long they had to stay. I wondered how many folks Obama's organization has. There was another report of having 5000 drivers ready to drive folks to their caucus. It is possible that the former community organizer has built the best organization in the state. His people are not on TV, radio or print trying to lower expectations.

The other folks I glimpsed today were members of the horde of news media. The big convention center downtown is their gathering spot. Without credentials I couldn't get much beyond the front doors, but I stood and watched the scene while Justin headed up to where the credentialed media was allowed. There was a sense of privilege and slight disdain among the out-of-state media hordes. This is fascinating since it is the news media that makes Iowa important and yet when you see the working press in Iowa many seem to just want to leave as soon as possible. No one said anything and I only saw a few people I knew by name. The only conclusion I came away with was they should have just stayed home. These caucuses are covered beyond proper proportion and will be over analyzed the same way. Yet each time it looks at all interesting they come in mass. They could misread polls, overreact to small errors and declare various candidates "inevitable" or "dead" from wherever they usually work.

I'm too chicken to make a prediction. I'll mostly watch for how the media spins it all. I'd go to Obama's rally tonight, but the crowd will be massive and I'll see very little. Plus, I'm too much of a news junkie to not have a chance to see as much as I can.

Since I'll be close to my laptop, I'll post again as long as the wireless connection keeps working.

2008-01-02T23:45:00.000-06:00

The Night Before the Iowa Caucus

I arrived in Des Moines in the late afternoon and after a dinner at Skip's, Justin and I headed for as many rallies as we could get to. We made it to events for Romney and Edwards. McCain was late in a small space so we skipped it and we were too late for Obama. All the Democrats timed their speeches for live feed that could be picked up on the local 10 o'clock news. Here are few observations from the Romney and Edwards' events.

Romney is from Central Casting. Romney looks exactly like he does on TV. It was a bit disconcerting. You expect someone to look a bit different in person. A bit less plastic. I saw Jonathan Alter, the journalist/pundit, and he looks even smaller in person. Romney looks exactly the same. He and his wife together appear just as you would expect a couple cast in the TV show about a man running for president. He certainly looks the part more than Martin Sheen ever did.

Romney's event was at the Hy-Vee Conference Center and my spot in the back of the room did not afford a good way to judge the crowd. My best guess consulting with Justin and his editor was from 500 to 1000. No one had a good sense of it. The crowd was polite and cheered at all the right times during the stump speech, but not overly enthusiastic. I understand from Justin that Republican crowds aren't as big or as boisterous as the Democrats. That fits the overall view you read and hear about the greater excitement for the election from Democrats.

The Edwards event was very different. It was at a place called the Val Air Ballroom which is a night club space large enough to hold a few thousand and Edwards filled it. He did cheat a bit by having John Mellencamp open for him. Edwards gave the big crowd old time Democratic religion. He was the "working man's politician" who assured the crowd that he would not negotiate with "those people" in corporate America who have blocked progress in areas such as health care and trade policy. For a crowd full of Democrats it was pure red meat. I suspect that the strategy limits Edwards' appeal beyond the Democrats searching for the "fighter" and "warrior" Edwards described himself as.

The media hordes are as impressive as the Democratic crowds. Satellite trucks line downtown Des Moines and print and radio media of all stripes abound. I can't get access to the convention center where they have gathered since I am just a political scientist playing political tourist. I did stand amongst them at the Edwards event and spent most of my time at the Romney event ignoring him and trying to hear or see what the media folks where saying or doing. The candidates smile. The crowds are excited. The media folks are unhappy and just want results to over analyze for 5 days until the New Hampshire results are in on the 8th and Iowa is long forgotten.

The expectations for turnout are soaring for the Democrats. Sen. Kent Conrad, who endorsed and campaigned with Obama, was on the radio today claiming at least 160,000 would turn out for the Democratic caucus. That would blow away the record. A local TV news station called 160,000 as the "expected turnout" and stated there is talk of 200,000 or more. For the Republicans the "expected turnout" was 95,000. This will still be less than 25% of the total voters in Iowa, but if that many Democrats actually head out for a lengthy meeting on a January night the view of highly motivated Democrats will be resoundingly confirmed. If such a level of attraction between the Democrats and voters could be sustained thru November, the Republicans would be wise to just nominate a candidate they don't mind seeing lose.

That's all for tonight. I'm quite tired. I'll post as I can tomorrow as I look for more candidates during the day and into the evening. Not sure yet who or what I'll see, but I'll take notes and post a few observations.

2008-01-01T21:57:00.000-06:00

Happy New Year

In observance of our species annual celebration of hope for the future, I offer a few thoughts on 2007 and 2008.

2007 was generally a bad year for governance in the United States. W's continuing attack on our system of checks and balances was not slowed much by the new Democratic Congress. With this weak effort, they earned an approval rating below his, but unlike him they will face the voters again. 90+% of those unpopular members of Congress will return after the 2008 election, because as any political scientist can tell you, Americans love their own representative and senators, it's just the other 434 and 98, respectively, that they think should be removed. In my state, the government continued to pretend it wasn't really the 21st Century and government action wasn't needed. We continue to follow the idea that change is too scary for us. I hope your state did better.

My own year was more good than bad. Truthfully, my life has been blessed so often that I really should never be allowed to complain. My greatest joy was to hear that my oldest nephew would not be deployed to Iraq with this Army Reserve unit. I don't know why he was so lucky, but I'm glad he continued my family's luck of avoiding combat. My family and friends are well and those who are battling health issues are doing so with success. My favorite professional sports teams need help, but the Missouri Tigers made up for it with the best season of my life.

Looking toward the new year, a political geek like me is thrilled to see a new election on the horizon. I am heading to Des Moines tomorrow to observe the odd ritual of the Iowa caucuses in person. I will try to get a glimpse of the top candidates and spend much of my time watching the news media hordes. As a political scientist, I usually spend this time of year yelling at the television "experts" making ridiculous statements for which no one will hold them accountable. This year I hope to observe them in their natural habitat of a Des Moines hotel bar and see where they acquire these "insights" on the American electorate.

I am not a big fan of the Iowa caucuses or the way the event is covered. Much too much will be made of the "entrance polls" the traditional media conducts and no one pays much attention to anything else. The night will be a battle of "spin" and who is seen as "up" or "down" based on the instant analysis of men and women who a few weeks or even days prior probably told us the exact opposite was happening. For example, I recall Chris Matthews not long ago declaring Barack Obama to be "at Jesse Jackson level" based on a single national poll. I am sure he is well prepared to declare Obama the Democratic nominee on Thursday night if he does well in the entrance poll. I'll try to blog from Iowa on anything I observe as interesting and maybe even post a picture or two.

After Iowa, New Hampshire and the super-sized Super Tuesday of February 5th, our political parties will probably have a good idea who the nominee will be. By March 5th, various political pundits will already be bored or disappointed by the choices the parties are offering us and wish for some mystical days of great men that never really existed. As a Democrat, I'll hope for a winning candidate in the general election who I can vote for with pride. As a political scientist, I'll look for clues for what might happen that lie beyond the control of any campaign or candidate. As a "political expert," I'll continue to use my obsession with following politics to sound quite good on radio, TV or print. It is my small contribution to the political system.

As for the non-political parts of the year, I hope for success in a new research project, an easy time formulating our department's 6-year review, improvement from my favorite professional sports teams, a marvelous trip to England with my sister and step-sister, and for something pleasantly unexpected.

I wish all of you the best of blessings for the new year.

2007-12-01T23:11:00.000-06:00

Oh Well...

Mizzou lost. Very disappointing, but Mizzou fans know how to handle disappointment. Though some of us do handle it better than others.

I find it hard to be disappointed for very long when the Tigers have given me the best season of Mizzou football I've ever experienced. By the time they send Mizzou off to the completely unsexy Cotton Bowl tomorrow I'll be fine with it. When your team is simply outplayed there is nothing to say, except "Congratulations OU. Now who and when do we play next so I can focus on that?"

I would like to thank Pitt for upsetting W. Virginia so Mizzou doesn't get the blame for Ohio State in the BCS Championship as is being widely predicted. In fact, we now return to the days of yesteryear when the polls by anonymous writers and, supposedly coaches, but often actually the sports information director, decide who is "the best in college football." The speculation will be endless on sports talk on all media forums. Ohio State and someone else is the most common prediction, but I'd like to see the writers and "coaches" just sit down and pick the two teams they actually do think are "the best in college football." With no playoff to pick a real champion, why not? The votes could split so wildly that it borders on a random choice. Then perhaps people will realize that the BCS is built to do one thing: guarantee a #1 ranked team plays a #2 ranked team. That is all it does. It doesn't choose "the best two teams in college football" any more than the polls used to choose a "national champion" before the BCS began. The bowl system was seen as preventing #1 from #2 from playing one another as conferences were locked into certain bowls. So they created a #1 vs. #2 game and a system to declare who those teams are. By the way, I would write this even if Missouri had won tonight. I have witnesses to my views on this system.

Who would I pick? Based purely on what I'd like to see on Jan. 7th, I think I'd pick USC and either LSU or Georgia. I'd pick LSU if I knew their players would be healthy again, but right now they are really beat up. I don't want to watch Ohio State, Florida, Oklahoma, Kansas (PLEASE NO!) or Virginia Tech. So I'll take the healthy SEC team and the team that has gotten healthy and once again looks solid.

Who do I want Missouri to play in Dallas on New Year's Day? The chart on ESPN says "SEC 3/4" and SEC standings have Georgia 3rd and either Florida or Auburn 4th, but, again, actual standings aren't the point. The decision will be about who hasn't been picked by the BCS bowls and who the white guys in funny colored jackets from the Cotton Bowl think will make them the most money. I'd kind of like to play a Georgia or Florida and see where Mizzou stands versus two good teams from what is the top conference in the country.

And now I retire for the night and dreams of football glory for my university. Dreams that once again reside in the ephemeral world of REM sleep. At least until next year... Go Tigers!

2007-12-01T17:27:00.000-06:00

MIZZOU RAH!

Have already experienced one version of "the greatest Mizzou game of my life." I await the next one in a about an hour and a half. I have spent the week listening to the consensus that Mizzou will lose. We are ranked #1 in a game on a neutral field, but the bettors have put their money on Oklahoma. I have heard Ohio State fans have already booked hotels in New Orleans for the BCS Championship Game in anticipation that Oklahoma will win and restore some order to the traditional football powers universe. Having watched Mizzou lose to Oklahoma two months ago and watched them win every game since to even get to San Antonio, I am sure they can when this game. I am too much of a longtime Mizzou fan to actually say they will. I can promise you that if they do, I will be buying appropriate merchandise two days after Christmas when I visit my sister and her family and my brother who both live in Columbia. I will then sit in front of my lovely HDTV on January 7th in total shock with the DVR running so I can convince myself later that it actually happened. If the Mizzou Tigers are playing for the BCS trophy in January, I will expect other miracles to soon follow. Such as.... George W. Bush and Dick Cheney resign after a visit from Billy Graham shows them the error of their ways. President Pelosi immediately begins our withdrawal from Iraq and a change in Afghanistan of building the country first not bombing the guys we hire to build the country. My brother Larry will tell me he will vote for a Democrat for president even if it is Hillary Clinton. My sister Janet will decide she likes football. My friend David begins to make optimistic predictions of success for the Democrats and the overall improvement of the human condition.

I will be yelling loudly from my TV room for my beloved Tigers. As an undergraduate I was in the crowd when the Tigers shutout a Barry Switzer coached Oklahoma team. I still have the headline from the next day's paper with the picture of the goal posts going down. I skipped that, but did go on the field and congratulate a few large, exhausted young men. I would love to be in San Antonio tonight to yell myself hoarse in the latest "biggest game in Mizzou history."

Here's to having another "biggest game in Mizzou history" in a little over a month.

Go Tigers! Beat OU!

2007-11-26T00:15:00.000-06:00

Mizzou is #1

The last time I wrote that it was as an undergraduate for the basketball team in the middle of the season after beating KU. It was a l-o-n-g time ago.

Watching the Tigers' game on Saturday night with my brother and sister was marvelous and frightening and a bit unreal all it once. This is the best Tiger football team of my life. My brother is 12 years old than I am and this is the best Mizzou football team of his life. My 82-year-old Dad, also a Mizzou alum, was in bed so I couldn't ask him.

Beating KU in the biggest MU-KU game ever is already a great triumph, but these Tigers have a legit shot at beating OU on Saturday and going to what passes as a national championship game for the only NCAA division without a playoff. Mizzou is a serious contender for the national title. I never expected to write those words without any sarcasm. Of course, I never expected a KU game to count this much either. This team has serious talent and simply more quality receivers than any team has quality defensive backs. One of the Tigers' NFL projected tight ends sat out the 2nd half with an injury and one receiver had a real bad game with dropped balls and stupid penalties. They still scored 36 points because of their receiver depth, good running game, and truly great play by the QB Chase Daniel. Watching Daniel Saturday was like watching a Tom Brady in the current New England offense. He seemed to endlessly make the perfect throw or scramble to find the open guy. Please do it again on Saturday, Chase.

If you want to see the attitude of a Mizzou fan as the game played out, I recommend Rock M Nation's live blogging of the 2nd half. It has the appropriate level of awe for Mizzou success and looming fear of ultimate failure.

By the way, this is my favorite picture from the game: http://www.tigerboard.com/

Finally, I watched New England tonight and they are running their own version of the spread offense. This hasn't got lots of attention from those that cover sports, but I couldn't help but wonder if their success won't have more teams running it in the NFL. For example, it would be a perfect offense for Vince Young at Tennessee. It may even mean that an NFL team could take a chance on Chase Daniel who to date has been declared to be too short (maybe 6 feet) and a "system quarterback." I await for ESPN or another source of sports bloviators to give me the word.

2007-11-17T22:16:00.000-06:00

Once in a Century

I am a Missouri kid. I was born there. I grew up there. I went to Mizzou. Numerous members of my family went to Mizzou. My dad worked for Mizzou via the Extension Service. My sister and brother-in-law work at Mizzou. My brother has worked at Mizzou. No university could be as close to my heart as Mizzou. That connection includes a love for Mizzou Tiger football. Like my love for the KC Chiefs, my love for the Mizzou Tigers exceeds my conscious memory.

As part of that love, comes an automatic hate. A hate for KU. As a loyal Mizzou gal I must tell you that KU is an arrogant, overrated place with a fake bird for a mascot and a nickname honoring people we would now call terrorists. You don't believe me? Via history.net:

"As a bird, the Jayhawk does not exist; it is as fabulous as the mythological roc. But Jayhawkers were very real, indeed, in the days leading up to the Civil War. A Jayhawker was one of a band of anti-slavery, pro-Union guerrillas coursing about Kansas and Missouri, impelled by substantially more malice than charity. Jayhawkers were undisciplined, unprincipled, occasionally murderous, and always thieving. Indeed, Jayhawking became a widely used synonym for stealing."

The equivalent would have been for Mizzou to choose the name "Bushwackers" and feature a picture of Bloody Bill Anderson or William Quantrill.

This hatred between the states that began with our little warm-up for the Civil War and extending throughout that conflict, moved to the playing field and the violent world of football in 1891. The universities call it the "border showdown" now but everyone knows it is a less deadly continuation of our border war. In my lifetime, beating KU has usually been a way to avoid embarassment. Mizzou has been no better than mediocre since 1969. KU has simply sucked except when Gayle Sayers was there in the early 1960s.

Until this year.

For the first time since 1909, the contest is between two contending teams. In 1909 it was for the title of Missouri Valley Conference Champion. This Saturday in Arrowhead it will be for the Big 12 North Championship and a shot at the Big 12 title the following week in San Antonio. If the winner takes the Big 12 championship, they will play for the closest thing Division 1-A football has to a national title -- the BCS championship.

It is almost unnatural.

This is a rivalry that is not supposed to matter to anyone but students and alumni. KU is supposed to suck. Mizzou is supposed to have managed to lose to someone besides a highly-ranked Oklahoma (who is blowing there BCS title hopes as I write this). Instead, the game is going to be nationally televised on ABC the Saturday night after Thanksgiving and will actually matter in the college football world.

I make no prediction here on the game. Both teams are about to face great offenses and it may be a shootout that goes down to the final minute. Neither team has been in a game this big in decades. In fact, for KU it has been since that 1909 game. The game may come down to which team can handle the exposure and pressure of a huge game.

This is the first year the game is being held at a neutral site. It should be in Lawrence, but money has driven it to Missouri in KC's Arrowhead Stadium. I have read that Lawrence merchants are not happy. KC area bar owners are thrilled. The game has been sold out for weeks with online scalpers asking for over $100 for the bad seats. That price just went up more today.

I assume the crowd will be pretty evenly split, but there will be commonalities among the fans. Both Mizzou and KU fans will wonder why in the year they are finally really good, their biggest rival is also and they can't just await a joyous massacre. Both Mizzou and KU fans will also be expecting their side to lose. Ignore the bluster heard on sports radio or posted on Internet message boards. Fans for these teams are too used to disappointment not to be expecting it once more. I fully expect the winners' fans to sober up on Sunday and immediately begin to worry about blowing the Big 12 title game due to a huge let down.

These fears will be forcibly dampened for the game because this time it will be for more than the opportunity to demean your enemy. This time, unbelievably, it will mean a chance for real football glory.

M-I-Z-Z-O-U

Go Tigers!

2007-11-06T10:27:00.000-06:00

I Have Returned

The semester has finally gotten back to its normal insanity so I return to scribbling here. I'll try to be more frequent.

I wanted to let it be known that today and yesterday early signs of winter began with snow flurries. It wasn't real impressive but after a very mild fall, it was a reminder that winter in the upper Midwest starts early and stays long. Glad I got a new parka.

2007-08-09T16:19:00.001-05:00

Celebrating the Triumph of Imagination

Warning: Deathly Hallows spoilers below

This is a summer with tragedies from Minneapolis to Baghdad. This is a summer in which the Democratic majority in Congress bent to the politics of fear and further contracted our civil liberty protections from an unchecked Chief Executive. It is a summer where escape is needed. Thank you God for J. K. Rowling.

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Last night I finished the 7th and final Harry Potter book by the marvelous Ms. Rowling. I have been a fan of the series since I picked up the first book in the late 1990's. I didn't become enthralled until I read the 3rd book, but I enjoyed the first two a lot. I've not been a fan that needs to read the books as soon as they came out, but this time I decided to read the 7th right away. This book is a roller coaster ride that would overwhelm Indiana Jones. This is an intense, emotional, and marvelously satisfying book. It is a triumph for J.K. Rowling and a book that leaves you wanting to go back to Book 1 and start all over again.

Beginning the final book, I sent my sisters (bigger fans than I am) predictions that started with the view that Harry would live. This was based on announcement of the theme park to be built in Florida. I figured that you don't build theme parks for dead heroes. Here is what else I thought:

Dumbledore is dead, but he will still have ways of helping Harry. Like great Jedi, great Wizards don’t die they just find other ways to communicate. Snape was under Dumbledore’s orders to kill him. I don’t think Dumbledore wanted Harry to see it, but he had no choice. If he had let Harry move, Harry would have taken on Draco and I’m very convinced that Dumbledore was working with Snape to save Draco’s soul. I don’t know if Snape has anyone left who think he’s a secret agent inside Voldemort’s camp working for the good guys. Given Snape’s personal history, of course, it fits for him to be the ultimate outsider. I am so glad it is Alan Rickman playing this part in the movies.

That much I got right. What I didn't expect was how much the book told us about Dumbledore and how much depth of that character we got to see. He becomes a more flawed and human character than other mentors I've read in books or seen in movies. As a Star Wars fan, I'd love to see such an in-depth view on Obi-Wan Kenobi and Yoda. The prequels gave us some background on Ben, but nothing close to this book's revelations on Dumbledore's desire for power and dalliance with Grindelwald's anti-Muggle attitudes. It was much more interesting than portraying the character as the director of Harry's hero journey.

As for Snape, I am pleased with his role as deeply flawed anti-hero. Leave the Malfoys to be the cowardly evil family. Snape was too much fun, particularly as played by Alan Rickman in the movies to just be the evil professor. If I knew who was directing the 7th film, I'd begin a campaign insisting that Snape's line when Dumbledore orders Snape to kill him be preserved. I can hear Rickman's voice saying the line already, (p. 683) "Would you like me to do it now? Or would you like a few moments to compose an epitaph?" As for the character, his motivation is simple but fits Rowling's theme of the power of love. For the love of Lilly, Snape secretly becomes "Dumbledore's man" and Harry's unknown ally.

I suspected a Weasley would die. I was sure it wouldn't be Ron. I don't think Harry operates well without Ron or Hermione. I didn't think it would be Ginny, but I wasn't expecting Rowling to take one twin and leave the other. I feared for Hagrid, but like Ron and Hermione he seems essential to Harry Potter. The saddest death was Dobby's who died the bravest death of all. The other deaths were sad, but not crushing. The idea that Harry was left as a godfather to a orphaned infant boy seemed to be the simple closing of a circle set in motion by fate. I was thrilled by Neville who is the Boy Who Must Be Cheered. Don't most of us see ourselves much closer to Neville than Harry? His triumph gives us all hope.

Ron and Hermione's roles also played out well. Hermione continues as the voice of reason and the brains of the operation essential to Harry's success. I am going to go through all the books and see how many times Harry was on the wrong track and Hermione was trying to pull him toward the right one. Ron's role as the most vulnerable of the three continues but he is their equal because of his love for and loyalty to his more talented friends. Though Ron succumbs to his fears and insecurities, he returns at just the right moment to save Harry once again. I think he grows more than either or Harry or Hermione in this book. He faces his fears and conquers them and, in what was a brilliant scene, finally gets to kiss Hermione. As for Hermione, the "most brilliant witch of her age" demonstrates a level of courage in the face of torture not often granted to female characters. J.K. Rowling has promised an encyclopedia that tells us more on the future of the characters. Hermione must become the great Minister of Magic who brings equality to all the magical creatures and true understanding with those muggles who are capable of believing in the parallel magical world.

Finally, I come to Harry Potter. There are so many themes within this one near-sighted, lightning scarred hero. He is the abused boy who finds love and the power that love can bring. He is the young man who has finished his hero's journey in triumph, but knows how much of it required the skill and sacrifice of others. He is the powerful wizard whose final duel with Voldermort is won by his own courage and skill, Voldemort's flaws, and an unintentional assist from the cowardly bigot, Draco Malfoy. Rowling could find no greater downfall for Draco than for his actions to be essential to Harry's ability to defeat Voldemort. The complicated role of the wands sent me scurrying back to my copy of Book 6. Draco's success at disarming Dumbledore, but failure to murder him as ordered is the final key to Harry's triumph. For the more obsessive fans who treasure every detail, having victory tied to what seemed such a small detail must be a source of true joy.

These characters, these details, these timeless themes set within the magical world of Rowling's imagination will continue to delight and enthrall children and adults for generations to come. The story that "sprung" into Rowling's mind on a train will be read and re-read over and over. It will continue to inspire fans to dream of worlds that are both mirrors of our world and reflections of our hopes. Rowling's name is assured among the treasured writers whose talent leaves the rest of us in awe.

Thank you, J. K. Rowling for Harry, Ron, Hermione, Dumbledore, Sirrius and the rest of the Order of the Phoenix, Snape, Dobby, Ginny and all the rest of the Weasleys, Luna, Neville and the rest of Dumbledore's Army and, yes, even the Malfoys and Voldemort. You have given us a treasure that even the deepest vaults in Gringott's could not hold.

2007-07-24T16:38:00.000-05:00

Impeach Him

No, not W, it is his Attorney General that deserves it first. Go to TPMmucraker.com and see the atrocities from today's Senate hearing. The man is a liar, corrupt and incompetent. W will never fire him since Alberto (aka Fredo) protects W from a real Attorney General who would not act as an extension of the president, but the people's top law enforcement officer. W only wants law enforced to fit what he wants to do. A real Attorney General could stop some of Dick and W's illegal data mining and other activities. Thus, impeachment by the House and a trial to remove him from office by the Senate is the only option. Will the Senate Republicans vote for removal? I'm not sure. They don't like him and want him to go, but the 2/3rds required to remove may be too far. I'd would advocate that trapping him into a prostitution ring could be an option, but Sen. Vitter doesn't seem to be going anywhere.

2007-07-03T23:37:00.000-05:00

For My 45th Birthday...

On my 12th birthday, August 9, 1974, Richard Nixon resigned. I hated him. He ruined my birthday. I was 12, what did I know about the country or the Constitution.

For my 45th birthday, I would be thrilled to have George W. Bush and Dick Cheney resign. It would bring me and a clear majority of the country great happiness and help preserve the rule of law under the limits on power set by the Constitution. President Pelosi doesn't sound too bad either.

If you missed it, you need to see Keith Olbermann's call for W and Dick's resignations. This is another powerful commentary from the only network anchor with the guts to say it on air. If you have a slow Internet connection, you can read the commentary instead of waiting for the download. Dreaming of their resignations is a great way to observe July 4th. We have another imperialistic head of state who needs to be removed. W believes he is above the law and ordained by God just like ol' George III. What he does is "right" because his enemies are "evil." Never mind what the public wants; the Constitution requires; or where a recognition of reality leads. Also never mind these words from Jesus Christ...

Blessed are the peacemakers, for they will be called children of God…But I say to you that listen, Love your enemies, do good to those who hate you, bless those who curse you, pray for those who abuse you. If anyone strikes you on the cheek, offer the other also; and from anyone who takes away your coat do not withhold even your shirt. Give to everyone who begs from you; and if anyone takes away your goods, do not ask for them again. Do to others as you would have them do to you.

Matthew 5:9; Luke 6:27-31 (New Revised Standard Bible via beliefnet.com)

On this Independence Day, may God's love bring a little peace to all those affected by W's wars, crimes and corruption.

2007-07-02T22:55:00.000-05:00

W learns from Watergate

W has commuted Scooter Libby's prison sentence. Scooter now is free from facing prison, but can still appeal and continue to refuse to tell the truth about the White House's efforts to discredit Joe Wilson's criticism of a lie W told about Iraq by outing Wilson's wife the CIA intelligence operator. The prosecutor can't use the reduction of time to get the truth. Scooter can also use the 5th Amendment to stonewall Congress' questions.

This is the first time I know of such a blatant use of the president's constitutional powers of pardon and commutation to cover up White House activity. Even Nixon didn't try this with the Watergate burglars or any of his former aides who did end up in jail unlike Dick Cheney's pal Scooter. Clearly, W has learned from Watergate to destroy any records, stonewall until you leave office and make sure those who lie for you don't have to go to jail. Nixon's crimes could be fully uncovered because the taping system provided the inescapable evidence. Reagan's buddy Ollie North shredding the evidence in Iran-Contra, but much of that is still fully none. With W and Cheney's continuing efforts to block anyone's attempt to know what they are doing, we may never really know how many crimes were committed by this version of a corrupt presidency.

2007-06-20T11:22:00.000-05:00

Highly Recommended Reading

I don't write much here on what other blogs say. I think I know most of the folks who read this bit of scribbling and they don't need me to link to my favorite liberal blog post of the day. However, Glen Greenwald is an excellent writer who blogs for Salon. He wrote today on how both the Bushies and some of the anti-Bushies oversimplify the world and the dangers of such simplification. It is an excellent introduction to his work and I want to recommend that you be willing to wait out any ad Salon pops up at you and read it: http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/index.html

I am teaching presidential elections today so expect a post on some of my observations on that race soon.

2007-06-06T18:02:00.000-05:00

Insert Curse Here

The phrase "cost of war" became a bit less hypothetical for my family today. My nephew's Army Reserve unit is headed to Iraq for an 18-month tour either at the end of this year or early next year.

His Commander-In-Chief does not deserve him. He doesn't deserve any of those who have answered the call to military service.

Stupid FUBAR War. Stupid FUBAR President.

Support the troops. Pray for Peace. Bring Them Home.

2007-05-28T15:06:00.000-05:00

The War Prayer

For those of you who don't visit the Washington Monthy blog The Political Animal. Let me pass along their powerful Memorial Day anti-war message from 100 years ago by Mark Twain: The War Prayer.

Because of the horrors we ask them to bear, we must always honor those we send to fight our wars. Because of the horrors we ask them to commit, we must only send them to fight when they are truly needed.

Support the troops. Pray for Peace. Bring Them Home.

2007-05-27T20:02:00.000-05:00

Of Pirates and Popcorn

Thirty years ago this summer the original "Star Wars" film mesmerized me and millions of others. That film started George Lucas's empire and not only set my course as a full-fledged sci-fi geek, but also set my standard for what makes a quality summer popcorn movies.

My standard does not require the film enthrall me to the point where I am remain fascinated 30 years later. I don't expect I'll have another movie experience like "Star Wars." What I want from summer popcorn movies is the complete escape into whatever world the movie is creating. I also want to find myself emotionally drawn to the characters and the story. I can forgive film making flaws of acting, script and specials effects if I get lost in the movie and care what happens to the characters in the story of the movie. If I am thinking about the outside world the movie is not doing it's job. I didn't review Spiderman 3 here, but it failed this standard for me.

Four years ago, "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl" easily met my summer popcorn standard. Johnny Depp's roguish and rather askew Captain Jack Sparrow lead the audience through a fantastical romp with humor, romance and wonderfully choreographed sword fights. As a lifetime fan of Errol Flynn movies, I love a good movie sword fight. I was disappointed last summer with "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest." It was a weak return of Captain Jack and friends. The humor seemed stilted, the sword fights seemed created by committee and the story was a 2 hour 30 minute set up for the third film. With that set up I had very low expectations for the third film.

I am happy to report that though "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" is quite long and takes awhile to find Jack Sparrow, it meets the summer popcorn movie standard. If you've got 3 hours for a movie (time includes trailers) and want to run away from reality, spend it with this new adventure from the Disney movie factory. Depp's Jack Sparrow is marvelously crazy like a fox. The movies various stories and new characters hold your interest and it even has a surprise or two not expected in a summer popcorn movie. To avoid spoilers I'll avoid writing on details until I add "spoiler space" below. If you liked the first film but were disappointed by the 2nd as I was, give this one a chance and see if it brings back that marvelous escape of the all good summer popcorn movies. I understand Depp is retiring Captain Jack, so I hope Disney will be willing to retire the films and move on. It is Depp who is the linchpin to all of these movies. He brought a marvelous character to life and brought pirates back among our favorite romanticized outlaws. Whatever odd, obscure movies he may do in the future, Johnny Depp will be remembered and loved as Captain Jack.

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Now, a few thoughts on the film in more detail...

This movie makes no pretense of being based on anything in reality. It creates a world of pirate mythology beyond Davy Jones' locker. There actually is a pirate code and enforced by Jack's dad played by Keith Richards. There is even a pirate "king." The afterlife is a place that can be found and visited; a goddess can be bound by ropes; and rocks can become crabs who can carry a ship. I think that complete rejection of all reality is the only way to play this story and its characters. If you can't put reality aside and just go along for the ride, you should spend your money going to a ballgame.

I was surprised how well they held together all the parts of story. The 2nd film had several subplots and this one has to deal with that and does it remarkably well. The romance is resolved with one of the best movie weddings ever. Davy Jones becomes more than a monster but remains monstrous to the end. He contributes to a shock for our romantic couple of Keira Knightly and Orlando Bloom that I didn't expect from a Disney movie. Jack Sparrow's insanity is played for all it's worth and made a bit too obvious at times. I liked wondering just how crazy he was versus how much it was an act to distract his foes. The villainy of the East India Company is just played as understood. Not surprising in a pirate movie and it is an aspect you just have to go with.

I'll finish by commenting on the ending that clearly sets up another story if Johnny Depp could be talked/bribed into it. I hope it doesn't get made. Let the fans' imaginations play out scenarios of how Jack will get the Black Pearl back and how Will and Elizabeth can overcome time and/or death. Rarely are Hollywood studios smart enough to leave a story as it is. For years, there were rumors of a sequel to "Gone with the Wind" and "Casablanca." This movie isn't in their league, but the Pirates of the Caribbean trilogy are the finest movies that will ever be made based only a rather dorky amusement park ride. Someone please tell Disney to go make a new ride and leave the story to play as any fan wishes in her/his mind.

2007-05-24T23:27:00.000-05:00

Why the Democrats Lost

Thursday the Democratic majority in the House and Senate passed another blank check to fund the war in Iraq. The attempt to add even voidable benchmarks for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq failed and failed completely. W won.

Lots of bloggers on the left are ranting on how horrible this is and bashing the Democratic leaders in the Congress for their failure. I prefer to examine why this effort failed and what might be done differently in the fall and beyond as more supplemental funding bills are needed to pay for W's stupid, stupid, stupid war.

When the debate began, I was attracted to Rep. Murtha's plan for the bill. His idea was to tie the money to troop readiness requirements for training and time between deployments that would have kicked W's "surge" in the teeth. W could come to Congress to ask for a waiver for these requirements, but he would have to come up with reasons and gain the votes to get the waiver. I liked this plan. I saw the Democrats granting the money with these pro-troops provisions and daring W to explain why he was vetoing the bill. It may never have become law, but it would have definitely stuck it to W. Murtha's bill could have been an easy victory for the Democrats in Congress. Show that W didn't want to compromise or "protect the troops." In a debate with "needs of the troops" as the focal point of the rhetoric, Murtha's bill would immediately show that W was not concerned about the troops. He would be turning down a reasonable requirement for a worn and weary Army and Marine Corps.

Murtha's bill was rejected as not going far enough. Instead the Democrats went for a bill with a timetable for withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. It was a great crowd pleaser for the Democratic base and the Democrats could point to numerous polls showing that a majority of citizens wanted the troops out by 2008. The flaw in the plan was not that it followed public opinion. The flaw was that they picked a bill that had no chance of becoming law with no back up plan for what to do after W vetoed the bill and an override attempt failed. Somehow they seemed to think that W would actually negotiate a compromise when he didn't need to do so. He had the Republican votes needed to sustain veto after veto. The Democrats were left with no hand to play.

You can hear many within the Democratic base crying and nashing their teeth at the failure of a Democratic Congress to deliver on their promise of "no more blank checks." What you do not see is any recognition of the reality of congressional procedure. Congress cannot force anything on the president without the votes required to override a veto. No one thought those votes existed. Only the most naive anti-war activist thought the Congress could force an end to the Iraq War. Unfortunately, Democratic congressional leaders played the game almost as naively as a college freshman whose knowledge of how a bill becomes a law is based upon the cartoon explanation from Schoolhouse Rock.

A strategy that recognized their limitations could have put pressure on W to compromise. Why not requirements for readiness? Why not benchmarks for the Iraqi government that could be enforced? Why not promise no permanent US military bases in Iraq? Why not draw up preliminary plans on withdrawal? Each of these could have been in a bill and used to point to W and the Republicans as the supporters of "stay the course" and screw the troops. The Democrats failed strategy leaves them looking weak and gives W his first real political victory since his re-election.

What will happen in the fall when this starts again? If you are a Democrat or simply someone who wants some check on W's war, you better hope thinking about this has already begun and is more thorough this time. The Democrats should not rely upon Republicans for help. The latest round of "the next few months are crucial" statements are no better an indicator of the Republicans facing reality than the last 7 versions of those statements. The congressional Democrats will again be facing a united front from the pro-war party. This fall they must recognize that W has no desire to compromise on anything and they should assume he won't. They should state upfront that their ability to change the policy is limited by a president who has operated for over 4 years without a strategy or accountability. They should focus on strengthening the view among the public that the Republican Party is the party of a failed war without end. They should call for the war to be part of the regular budgeting process. They should pass bills with support for post-traumatic stress syndrome programs and similar pro-veterans elements including planning for how to repair the Army and Marine Corps that have been severely damaged by W's endless stupidity and stubbornness. Some of these efforts should not wait for the next supplemental request. Amendments can be attached to other bills W wants to sign. Simultaneously, the hearings and investigations on exposing the poor judgment and corruption of W's war could be used to increase the pressure. They also must teach their base that pushing for withdrawal and only withdrawal will be another loser.

Ending the war and winning the next election are not independent events. W has no intention of leaving Iraq as long as he is president. The Republican presidential candidates are lining up in support of W's war. The Democrats can and must demonstrate that if they public wants the war to end, they are the only choice. This cannot be done by repeating Thursday's failure.

2007-05-19T14:55:00.000-05:00

Calling Frank Church and Friends

During the 1970s I learned government in the context of a failed war and an imperial presidency. Now I watch as we repeat ourselves and I'm not even 45 yet. The failed war continues to take lives unnecessarily with no end before January 2009 likely. The imperial presidency's has barely been exposed. We have seen a memo justifying torture, secret prisons run by the CIA under who knows what, if any, rules, telecommunications companies admitting giving the government access to data on US citizens, and yet we may have only touched the surface.

This week we saw a bit more of how little W and friends respect the Constitution with details from former US Deputy Attoney General James B. Comey on the efforts of Bush to continue an illegal wiretapping program that even the conservative Republican Comey could not stomach. In short, W sent his Chief of Staff and then White House Counsel Alberto Gonzalez to get a hospitalized, drugged John Ashcroft to sign off on what his deptuy would not. Ashcroft is no fan of extensive civil liberties and had previously signed off to continue the program but he would not ignore the rule of law to this extent. W was forced to make some changes to the secret program.

Is this the same illegal wiretapping program that came to light previously and was widely debated or is it another program? We don't know. Why? It's classified. Does it have congressional approval? No. Why not? Because until last January congressional oversight of executive power had been placed in an undisclosed location by the Republican majority. Do we know what programs are mining data in pursuit of "national security." Not really. The GAO did produce a report for Democratic Sen. Akaka on the hundreds of data mining programs that exist throughout the government. The GAO did not have access to any classified materials so this is an incomplete examination. What we do know is that this administration believes the presidency has little if any constraints on its power as long it can be claimed to be under the role of Commander-in-Chief. With a "Global War on Terror" that means US citizens' constitutional protections don't restrict our "Commander Guy."

Thus, we need another Frank Church. Sen. Church's Select Committee investigated years of abuse of power by security agencies under both Democratic and Republican administration. Its investigations lead to the very laws that W and friends are likely violating to "protect us from terrorists." It is my strong suspicion that the access to date from telecommunications and other companies is being used in multiple programs to create the giant data mining and monitoring program that was nicknamed "Carnivore."

From the Electronic Privacy Information Center:

In November 2002, the New York Times reported that the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) was developing a tracking system called "Total Information Awareness" (TIA), which was intended to detect terrorists through analyzing troves of information. The system, developed under the direction of John Poindexter, then-director of DARPA's Information Awareness Office, was envisioned to give law enforcement access to private data without suspicion of wrongdoing or a warrant.

TIA purported to capture the "information signature" of people so that the government could track potential terrorists and criminals involved in "low-intensity/low-density" forms of warfare and crime. The goal was to track individuals through collecting as much information about them as possible and using computer algorithms and human analysis to detect potential activity.

The project called for the development of "revolutionary technology for ultra-large all-source information repositories," which would contain information from multiple sources to create a "virtual, centralized, grand database." This database would be populated by transaction data contained in current databases such as financial records, medical records, communication records, and travel records as well as new sources of information. Also fed into the database would be intelligence data.

A key component of the TIA project was to develop data-mining or knowledge discovery tools that would sort through the massive amounts of information to find patterns and associations. TIA would also develop search tools such as Project Genoa, which Admiral Poindexter's former employer Syntek Technologies assisted in developing. TIA aimed to fund the development of more such tools and data-mining technology to help analysts understand and even "preempt" future action.

A further crucial component was the development of biometric technology to enable the identification and tracking of individuals. DARPA had already funded its "Human ID at a Distance" program, which aimed to positively identify people from a distance through technologies such as face recognition or gait recognition. A nationwide identification system would have been of great assistance to such a project by providing an easy means to track individuals across multiple information sources.

DARPA's Broad Agency Announcement 02-08 soliciting proposals from industry stated that the initial plan was for a five year research project into these various technologies. The interim goal was to build "leave-behind prototypes with a limited number of proof-of-concept demonstrations in extremely high risk, high payoff areas."

In September 2003, Congress eliminated funding for the controversial project and closed the Pentagon's Information Awareness Office, which had developed TIA. This does not, however, necessarily signal the end of other government data-mining initiatives that are similar to TIA. Projects such as the Novel Intelligence from Massive Data within the Intelligence Community Advanced Research and Development Activity (ARDA) will apparently move forward. The FBI and the Transportation Security Administration are also working on data-mining projects that will fuse commercial databases, public databases, and intelligence data and had meetings with TIA developers.

W and friends in and out of government will assure you that everything they do is for the security of America and its citizens. That's what all those agencies in the 1970s told Sen. Church as well. I suspect it will be only after W leaves office that we learn how fully our government has gathered information on all of us and what it has been used to create.

The privacy issues in the 21st Century involve governments and private companies. It is from private industry that the data is being mined. Companies who don't seem to mind selling private data to crooks so they can target the elderly. An extensive and full debate on who knows what and who can get what from the numerous data banks each of us has tied to our names is needed. But first we stop a president who sees himself as above the law.

"They who would give up an essential liberty for temporary security, deserve neither liberty or security." Benjamin Franklin

2007-05-10T08:34:00.000-05:00

Tony Blair and W

After several months of waiting, Tony Blair officially announced his resignation as Britain's PM effective June 27. I suggest you check British media for full and in-depth reaction on his term in office. This post is on how Tony Blair's tenure was mortally wounded by an American president.

I cannot tell you why he did it, but sometime in 2002 Tony Blair decided to follow W into Iraq and hitch his own legacy to a radical foreign policy from a intellectually lazy man who was following the advice of those who though America should "act like an empire." Shouldn't a Brit have seen that as a bad sign? W's decision already fills numerous books and will be a point of discussion for decades if not centuries in this country. Blair's decision to tag along won't be the biggest section of his biographies, but will be seen as the beginning of the end of Blair's leadership.

Blair went against public opinion in Britain on Iraq. The war was never popular among the British public. Perhaps they remembered their own history in Iraq. Or perhaps, they were simply smart enough not to trust W to lead a "preventive war." This is an example where a leader ignored his voters and paid for it. The British public had it right. Blair had it wrong.

Blair was a much more articulate speaker on why war was needed against Saddam Hussein's Iraq. However, he must have known the weakness of the intelligence W was using to justify the invasion. If he wasn't asking "what happens after Saddam is gone?" he failed in his duty as prime minister. Once he asked that question, he should have known that W's gang was completely clueless on what to do and were ignoring those in the US government who tried to bring it up. Somehow, his desire to remain loyal to Britain's closest ally must have overridden the warning flags he had to see. He may have thought he could influence the policy. He may have thought he could guide W into a more intelligent choices after Saddam fell. He was wrong and the British have paid for it in lives and he has paid for it politically.

The beginning of the Iraq War was the last high point in Blair's popularity, he was (with the help of weak opposition from the Tories) able to lead to Labour to its first 3rd consecutive election victory in May 2005, but his majority fell and the writing was on the wall. Blair had to go. The Iraq War defines Blair's final years as Prime Minister. The Labour Party continues to suffer from his allegiance to W's stupid stupid war. After the 2005 election, there was no doubt that Tony had to go and many thought he should have left a year ago.

Labour will choose a new leader who will become Prime Minister. A Scotsman named Gordon Brown is the clear favorite. The expectation among Brits is that he will get the British out of Iraq as part of his effort to reclaim the voter support Labour will need before a new election is called by May 2010. If Labour fails to get Britain out of Iraq, the party could split so seriously that the Tories can regain their dominance of the 1980s and 1990s. And the Tories aren't anti-war. But they didn't lead the British into Iraq and that may be all that is needed.

I don't know if Blair can ever clearly explain why he choose to follow W. I would love to hear Blair's private views of the man who has helped hastened the end of his leadership. I'd love to hear what those close to Blair say about why he "took the decision" as the British say. Blair has been Labour's most electorally successful leader, but he tied his legacy to a president whose righteous arrogance tragically continues.