Happy New Year

In observance of our species annual celebration of hope for the future, I offer a few thoughts on 2007 and 2008.

2007 was generally a bad year for governance in the United States. W's continuing attack on our system of checks and balances was not slowed much by the new Democratic Congress. With this weak effort, they earned an approval rating below his, but unlike him they will face the voters again. 90+% of those unpopular members of Congress will return after the 2008 election, because as any political scientist can tell you, Americans love their own representative and senators, it's just the other 434 and 98, respectively, that they think should be removed. In my state, the government continued to pretend it wasn't really the 21st Century and government action wasn't needed. We continue to follow the idea that change is too scary for us. I hope your state did better.

My own year was more good than bad. Truthfully, my life has been blessed so often that I really should never be allowed to complain. My greatest joy was to hear that my oldest nephew would not be deployed to Iraq with this Army Reserve unit. I don't know why he was so lucky, but I'm glad he continued my family's luck of avoiding combat. My family and friends are well and those who are battling health issues are doing so with success. My favorite professional sports teams need help, but the Missouri Tigers made up for it with the best season of my life.

Looking toward the new year, a political geek like me is thrilled to see a new election on the horizon. I am heading to Des Moines tomorrow to observe the odd ritual of the Iowa caucuses in person. I will try to get a glimpse of the top candidates and spend much of my time watching the news media hordes. As a political scientist, I usually spend this time of year yelling at the television "experts" making ridiculous statements for which no one will hold them accountable. This year I hope to observe them in their natural habitat of a Des Moines hotel bar and see where they acquire these "insights" on the American electorate.

I am not a big fan of the Iowa caucuses or the way the event is covered. Much too much will be made of the "entrance polls" the traditional media conducts and no one pays much attention to anything else. The night will be a battle of "spin" and who is seen as "up" or "down" based on the instant analysis of men and women who a few weeks or even days prior probably told us the exact opposite was happening. For example, I recall Chris Matthews not long ago declaring Barack Obama to be "at Jesse Jackson level" based on a single national poll. I am sure he is well prepared to declare Obama the Democratic nominee on Thursday night if he does well in the entrance poll. I'll try to blog from Iowa on anything I observe as interesting and maybe even post a picture or two.

After Iowa, New Hampshire and the super-sized Super Tuesday of February 5th, our political parties will probably have a good idea who the nominee will be. By March 5th, various political pundits will already be bored or disappointed by the choices the parties are offering us and wish for some mystical days of great men that never really existed. As a Democrat, I'll hope for a winning candidate in the general election who I can vote for with pride. As a political scientist, I'll look for clues for what might happen that lie beyond the control of any campaign or candidate. As a "political expert," I'll continue to use my obsession with following politics to sound quite good on radio, TV or print. It is my small contribution to the political system.

As for the non-political parts of the year, I hope for success in a new research project, an easy time formulating our department's 6-year review, improvement from my favorite professional sports teams, a marvelous trip to England with my sister and step-sister, and for something pleasantly unexpected.

I wish all of you the best of blessings for the new year.