Election Predictions

I'm watching Monday Night Football to see who will win the presidential election tomorrow. You see, the story goes that if the Washington Redskins win their last home game before the election, the incumbent party keeps the White House. If they lose, the incumbent party loses. This has held from 1936 -2000. 2004 blew the streak. We await the football prediction as the 4th Quarter begins with the Pittsburgh Steelers leading 16-6.

There are lots of such predictions. The taller candidate tends to win. I've seen Halloween masks used. The Weekly Reader poll of grade school kids is also often cited. This year all those indicators see Obama winning, just like the polling data. Even the choice of the "alien" from the Weekly World News, is a favorite indicator. Obama was endorsed by the "alien" in August, but a shocking development occurred on Halloween when the "alien" switched to McCain. However, the Weekly World News indicates this may involve sexual bribery. I await a full expose by the New York Times.

I won't use any of these for my predictions. You may mock me as you wish when it is all over. I have no fancy model like 538.com or years of polling experience like pollster.com. I've got my experience as a political scientist and a political junkie. The latter means I've obsessed over all the information I can get access to for months. The former means that when I calm down from information overload, I can do a much better job analyzing that information than most of the blowhards you'll see on TV.

With that in mind, here are my official predictions:

Obama wins (such a daring call). Popular vote 52% to 47% with 1% going to Nader, Paul, Mickey Mouse, etc. I may be generous to McCain here because you have to search for polls where he even makes 46%, but I'll stay cautious. I'll be more daring with the Electoral College and put it at 347 to 191. This is Obama winning all the states Kerry won in 2004 plus Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and North Dakota. I am confident of all the states through Virginia. I am saying Missouri goes with the winner once again and Florida and North Carolina are won by Obama's ground game. I added North Dakota just because it is fun to dream that the polls showing an Obama lead are true. McCain's been living in Ohio so I kept it from being even a bigger blowout. I also can't bring myself to have Indiana vote for the Democrat. That's too much change for me to handle just now.

Building on reviews from Charlie Cook who follows the US House races in detail, I'll say the Democrats add 25 more seats to their majority. Personally, I'll be watching a couple of seats in my home state of Missouri and rooting for the defeat of the hideous Michelle Bachmann in Minnesota. The story in the link is not the first time Bachmann has spouted ridiculous rightwing nonsense. She first gained attention for ranting about schoolkids going to see Harry Potter.

I pay much closer attention to the Senate. Here I'll predict a sure pickup of 7 Senate seats for the Democrats. Five are easy to pretty easy: Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire and Alaska. Looking likely are Oregon and North Carolina. Dole's campaign in North Carolina rivals McCain's for worst of the year. There is a possible 8th in Minnesota, but that race is so screwy I refuse to make an official pick. Two other races I'll watch are Georgia and Kentucky. Georgia has the despicable Saxby Chambliss who ran ads 6 years ago comparing his opponent, a disabled Vietnam vet, to Saddam Hussein. McConnell is the incument in Kentucky, and I just don't like him. Both of these are real longshots, but there is no cost in dreaming.

There they are. I put them into the ether of the Internet for all to see. Okay, for the 5 or 6 people who actually read this blog to see.

Update: It is final: Steelers 23 Redskins 6. Obama wins!