The Difference One Man May Make

Tomorrow at noon Barack Obama becomes President of the United States. Saying that out loud still gives me a moment's pause. This is actually going to happen.

I became a fan of Obama in 2004, like so many others, after hearing his speech at the Democratic Convention. I read about him and followed his race for the Senate seat in Illinois. I read of his wife's reminder to him when he took office that now he could earn all the attention by getting something done. I supported his run for the presidency from the moment it was clear he would run. I spent 2007 making sure I didn't get too excited on his prospects. I am a political scientist. I knew to be cautious.

I spent 2008 watching him win.

Now it is 2009 and he will be my president. He has excited many Americans and many non-Americans in the hope for a return to a country which we are all proud. He faces great challenges and a government structure not meant to bring about quick change. In fact I was asked today, "Is he being set up to fail?" The satirical Onion had it best when he declared after Obama's election "Black Man Given Nation's Worst Job."

Here are the handful of predictions I am willing to make tonight:

1) Let me start with what won't happen. He won't create a "post-partisan" America. The difference between the parties is distinct and distant. He can reach to Republicans, but I question how much they will reach back. The only I can say for sure is that the more he succeeds with the public, the less the Republicans will be strictly about blocking him.

2) He will have a "honeymoon." This isn't Bill Clinton in 1993. The country is very different. The man is very different. How much he can get done in whatever is declared to be his "honeymoon." He will get a stimulus package. But he calls that a "down payment." When he goes back to Congress with, perhaps, a multi-year package for infrastructure renewal or new regulations for business, may well be the true test.

3) Congressional Democrats will cause him trouble. Why? Because that's what they do to Democratic presidents. They won't be as bad as they were for Jimmy Carter. He was an outsider and they had run Congress since the 1950's. They thought he should follow their lead at times. He didn't like them. It didn't work well. Obama has been in Washington and his transition has demonstrated an acknowledgment of the need to be able to successful conduct congressional relations.

4) Public support is more important than good press. The Bush Administration ignored and manipulated the news media and no one cared. The Obama Administration is likely to lead the way in using the Internet to engage the public with or without the approval of the DC news media. If public ends up maintaining their support for Obama, the traditional news media will follow along.

5) This will not be a remake of "The West Wing." Many liberals loved "The West Wing" and its idealized view of how to be a liberal Democratic president. TV is just TV even when it is well written TV. Reality is so much messier; has more ambiguous endings; and never comes with a many well-spoken soliloquy at the key moment.

6) Finally, I expect Obama to be more cautious than liberals want. I say that because he is a good politician and will not want to "get too far ahead of the public." What I will be watching is how far toward liberal views in areas as the social safety net, civil liberties, gay rights, environmental protection and business regulation he will try to lead the American public. I can see him seeking to make a number of changes under the argument that it is needed for an economic rebound. The lousy economy is a chance to push for a return to a more progressive tax system and a less corporate welfare oriented economic policy. The horrible W foreign policy disaster is a chance to return to international policy sanity. I will watch for how far he dares to go.

I'll conclude with a confession. At some point tomorrow I will give in to tears of joy. I am part of an event at my university and I'll be busy up to the ceremony and even after. At some point during day, perhaps when I return home a review my recordings of the events, I will cry in joy at the reality of President Barack Obama.