Political Junkie, Part 1

I think I'm going to do several posts tonight and tomorrow as the election arrives. I love this stuff. I'll have two computers, a TV and the radio all on as I try to find out anything newsworthy as the votes get counted. This first post are just my final views on the "lay of the land."

It still looks favorable to the Democrats, but there aren't enough competitive elections for a really dramatic change of over 50. My view of about +20 for Democrats in the House and no more than +4 in the Senate holds. This will give the Democrats the House of Representatives by a narrow margin and given us the first female Speaker.

The really tight races include the impossible to call Missouri Senate race. Because I grew up in Missouri and have seen the state choose the lesser candidate more often than not, I am guessing (and it is purely a guess) that Talent will win. However, this one could easily go into Wednesday afternoon before a winner is declared.

Another interesting race is the Minnesota Governor's race. Incumbent Tim Pawlenty has consistently run over 50% on approval ratings throughout the year. However, in election polls he's had a very hard time getting above 45%. One of the reasons for this is the anti-Republican wave that does exist in Minnesota. Bush's approval rating is well below the national average in Minnesota and Republicans across the state have battled against that all year. Pawlenty also took hits on budget issues a year ago and this year's more amicable legislative session hasn't repaired the damage. His best hope lies in his Democratic opponent Mike Hatch.

Mike Hatch...how do I say this. He can be a loudmouth jerk at times. He is not at all strategic about blowing his top at someone. He does it repeatedly to his own detriment. The latest was last Thursday when he allegedly called a male reporter a "Republican whore." He says he thought he called him a Republican hack, but could have called him a whore. Nice job, Mike. This didn't turn voters from Hatch to Pawlenty, but liberals and moderates who are uncomfortable with Hatch have a candidate from the Independence Party to choose. The Star Tribune's tracking poll shows Saturday and Sunday results with Hatch down a bit, Pawlenty the same and "others" up two percent. This is the "is Hatch nuts" affect. The race may come down to how much strategic voting will occur. Once faced with the ballot, will voters who don't want Pawlenty stick with the Independence Party candidate or take a chance with Hatch. If they go for Hatch, look for this one to be much stronger for Hatch than expected.

Finally, I'll follow an obscure Nebraska House race. The 3rd District in Nebraska has not gone for a Democrat since sometime in the 1950s. Then comes Scott Kleeb. This guy is good. He is comfortable on camera and on horseback. He is fairly good-looking young man who seems to know his constituents. Plus, the Republicans have run a candidate in this open district who is not as strong and has been backed by the Club for Growth gang. Club for Growth supports ending ag subsidies. Not a good stance in Nebraska. Kleeb will probably lose in this first try at a heavily Republican district, but win or lose watch this guy. He's got a future in politics.