The Night Before the Iowa Caucus

I arrived in Des Moines in the late afternoon and after a dinner at Skip's, Justin and I headed for as many rallies as we could get to. We made it to events for Romney and Edwards. McCain was late in a small space so we skipped it and we were too late for Obama. All the Democrats timed their speeches for live feed that could be picked up on the local 10 o'clock news. Here are few observations from the Romney and Edwards' events.

Romney is from Central Casting. Romney looks exactly like he does on TV. It was a bit disconcerting. You expect someone to look a bit different in person. A bit less plastic. I saw Jonathan Alter, the journalist/pundit, and he looks even smaller in person. Romney looks exactly the same. He and his wife together appear just as you would expect a couple cast in the TV show about a man running for president. He certainly looks the part more than Martin Sheen ever did.

Romney's event was at the Hy-Vee Conference Center and my spot in the back of the room did not afford a good way to judge the crowd. My best guess consulting with Justin and his editor was from 500 to 1000. No one had a good sense of it. The crowd was polite and cheered at all the right times during the stump speech, but not overly enthusiastic. I understand from Justin that Republican crowds aren't as big or as boisterous as the Democrats. That fits the overall view you read and hear about the greater excitement for the election from Democrats.

The Edwards event was very different. It was at a place called the Val Air Ballroom which is a night club space large enough to hold a few thousand and Edwards filled it. He did cheat a bit by having John Mellencamp open for him. Edwards gave the big crowd old time Democratic religion. He was the "working man's politician" who assured the crowd that he would not negotiate with "those people" in corporate America who have blocked progress in areas such as health care and trade policy. For a crowd full of Democrats it was pure red meat. I suspect that the strategy limits Edwards' appeal beyond the Democrats searching for the "fighter" and "warrior" Edwards described himself as.

The media hordes are as impressive as the Democratic crowds. Satellite trucks line downtown Des Moines and print and radio media of all stripes abound. I can't get access to the convention center where they have gathered since I am just a political scientist playing political tourist. I did stand amongst them at the Edwards event and spent most of my time at the Romney event ignoring him and trying to hear or see what the media folks where saying or doing. The candidates smile. The crowds are excited. The media folks are unhappy and just want results to over analyze for 5 days until the New Hampshire results are in on the 8th and Iowa is long forgotten.

The expectations for turnout are soaring for the Democrats. Sen. Kent Conrad, who endorsed and campaigned with Obama, was on the radio today claiming at least 160,000 would turn out for the Democratic caucus. That would blow away the record. A local TV news station called 160,000 as the "expected turnout" and stated there is talk of 200,000 or more. For the Republicans the "expected turnout" was 95,000. This will still be less than 25% of the total voters in Iowa, but if that many Democrats actually head out for a lengthy meeting on a January night the view of highly motivated Democrats will be resoundingly confirmed. If such a level of attraction between the Democrats and voters could be sustained thru November, the Republicans would be wise to just nominate a candidate they don't mind seeing lose.

That's all for tonight. I'm quite tired. I'll post as I can tomorrow as I look for more candidates during the day and into the evening. Not sure yet who or what I'll see, but I'll take notes and post a few observations.