Perceptions

The day after the Iowa caucuses and Iowa has been returned to Iowans. The effect of last night now turns into what perceptions the news media emphasizes and the campaigns manage to use to their advantage. Hillary and Edwards finished almost equally in the caucuses but because she was behind the perception is already set that she was third. She didn't just lose to Obama, but to Edwards also and no one is paying much attention to Edwards. Edwards perception problem is just that. He just can't seem to get beyond being the third wheel on the stage. Obama has gotten lots of positives now but you already see and hear questions on whether he can stand up to the attacks that are expected now that he is the new "frontrunner."

On the Republican side, much of the initial perception is working for McCain as much as Huckabee. There is still serious doubt about Huckabee's ability to sell himself beyond the conservative evangelical faction in the Republican coalition. Romney's best hope might be that this perception holds and he is seen as the alternative to McCain whom many Republicans still don't trust. If Romney cannot gain such traction quickly and loses again on Tuesday, he is probably done for good. The overall perception on the Republican side is that Iowa only mixed things up again. There is no clarity to the race. Name a Republican and the discussion quickly turns to the difficulties he faces rather than how he can win.

Finally, the perception of more highly motivated Democrats has been reinforced by the 239,000 participants in the Democratic caucus. The Republican numbers were also up substantially but were still less than half of the number the Democrats turned out. Such results only keep Democrats fired up for what they hope will be a huge year.