The Night Before New Hampshire

I'm back home and seeing the Obama organization continue to grow. After seeing a bit of his extraordinary organization in Iowa, I now see that he's reaching out to North Dakota too by opening 3 field offices in the state. No one else on the Democratic side has bothered with North Dakota and it is unlikely to help him carry the state if he wins the nomination, but it is an indication to me that he is looking well past tomorrow in New Hampshire or even South Carolina later in the month. I have looked for news on organization efforts in the morass of states set to vote on February 5th but I have not seen much. I suspect that the Clinton's and Guiliani's expect to get by with TV ads and some local TV and other media coverage. I am more impressed with Obama's efforts to build something for beyond Super-sized Super Tuesday. Another sign of this was hearing from an Obama worker in his Des Moines office on the day after the caucus say that none of his Iowa offices were closing. Instead they were to become phone centers. The Obama organization is building a truly national organization from nothing. They are not relying on his "rock star status" and the media coverage it generates. Rather they are building what is needed to compete in November.

The Democratic primary in New Hampshire does not look close at this point. I will be looking for hints from media and blogs on the exit polls during the afternoon from my campus office. I expect Obama to win easily as the "wave" continues and will only watch for the level of turnout and his totals versus Clinton and Edwards. I am more curious about the Republicans as I watch to see if McCain keeps enough independents from Obama to hold off Romney. Huckabee should be much farther down as he lacks the conservative evangelical Christians in New Hampshire that gave him victory in Iowa.

An Obama victory continues the swelling of his numbers in S. Carolina, other primary states and in national polls as well. The campaign will quickly become how either Clinton or Edwards can stop him. Clinton has money but needs to beat him somewhere. Edwards doesn't have lots of money but has already started to try to get voters to push aside Clinton and see it as as a two-man race. Either one will need something to get voters to question their backing Obama. They haven't found anything yet.

A McCain or Romney victory will clarify little among the Republicans. The next stop depends on how you see it. Michigan is first, but has the RNC withholding its delegates for busting past February 5th. S. Carolina then follows and the RNC is only withholding half of its delegates for breaking the alleged rules. It is possible for McCain or Romney to take Michigan and Huckabee takes S. Carolina and it is still all a muddle going into February 5th. Guiliani will think he still has a chance. Thompson may still hang about hoping they all kill each other and he is the last standing. But, again, what it really shows is that Republicans don't much care for any of them. Social conservatives don't trust Guiliani or Romney. Anti-immigrant nationalists don't like McCain or Huckabee and are torn on Guiliani because he isn't anti-immigration enough but they like the idea of "staying on the offensive" against other scary foreigners. The neo-cons who brought us the lovely Iraq War, the Patriot Act and expanding uncheckable presidential power despise Huckabee with a venom usually reserved for Bill and Hillary Clinton. The Democrats are sitting back and loving their pain.

I close with a line that captures the moment better than I can. It is another great line from Keith Olbermann from tonight's show, "Barack Obama is Tiger Woods."