South Carolina and Beyond

After a week in which Bill Clinton got as much media attention as Hillary and news organizations tried to turn a primary debate tussle into a permanent rift in the Democratic Party, Barak Obama has emerged with the biggest margin of victory in any contested election so far. Plus, the Democrats once again demonstrated the "excitement gap" over the Republicans by having more voters in their primary than the Republicans could muster. This in a very Republican state. By the time all the votes are counted, Obama alone may top the 290,000 total among all Democratic contenders in South Carolina in 2004.

We have now had 4 contested states with 2 going to Obama and 2 to Hillary Clinton. The campaign now goes to the Supersized Super Tuesday on February 5th where the Democrats have primaries and caucuses in 22 states across the country (Republicans compete in 20 states). Retail politics ends and wholesale politics emphasizing TV ads and targeting states to end up being declared the overall "winner" on that night begins. With this very impressive win tonight, the news media I'm hearing on TV is already lurching back to the power of Obama's message after lurching toward the power of the Clinton machine since the New Hampshire primary. The truth is, either one of these candidates can win this nomination. Nothing is settled, but February 5th will have too many states not to have a lot of say in who gets the nominations for both parties.

You may have already heard or read how highly unlikely it will be that a candidate for either party will come out of Feb. 5th with enough delegates to win the nomination. Mathematically that is true, however presidential primaries aren't just about math. If one candidate is seen to have a set of victories that represent a "strong win" on that night, it will get increasingly difficult to stop that candidate. Democrats will have 6 more state caucuses and primaries the week following February 5th. The declared "winner" from Feb. 5th should be able to build momentum toward a view that he/she is "inevitable" with wins in most of those 6 states. The other candidates will begin to hear grumblings that they are standing in the way of unifying the party and the primary season would begin to come to a close.

Clinton leads in California, New York and New Jersey which are the only states with any recent polling. Those 3 states have lots of delegates and will get lots of attention, but Hillary's the senator from New York and should be expected to win there very easily. New Jersey may be read the same way, but it does have an anti-New York streak in it that may make it interesting. California is also a states where Democrats loved Bill Clinton and has been seen as a stronghold for Hillary. That state's race is the big prize of the night with the current expectations favoring Hillary, but California Democrats like to consider themselves as leading change not delaying it. Illinois as Obama's home state will be his. Even a big win there won't get him much credit.

That leaves 18 other states in which we have no real evidence on where the race stands. Four states I will watch closely to start will be Arizona, Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota. All 4 will be states the Democrats want in November. They represent a mix of voters that are important to Democrats and where they hope to gain in congressional and state elections this year. Who do those voters see as the best to put at the top of the ticket for taking back the White House and making other Democratic gains? Who's message will reach more voters in these states which have gotten very little attention to date, but will get a lot of attention in the fall? I haven't looked to see which have open versus close primaries. I do know Minnesota is a caucus, but have no idea if that favors Clinton over Obama. I haven't seen much on who has what level of organizing in any of those states. The unknowns make it all the more exciting.

I'll post information I find interesting as I find it. Please pass along anything good to me that I might not see. The political excitement will help me avoid the ridiculous sports coverage that leads up to the Super Bowl. I'll probably post on that this week as well.