Clueless

The title is not a reference to my Super Bowl prediction. I had much better information for that then I do for this post. The title refers to how I feel going into Supersized Super Tuesday on who will do what in the Democratic race. Earlier today I made myself a chart to look at the contests and declared my views on who has leading going into election day. Please note all the "no clue" comments. I'll give an overview at the end.

States listed alphabetically under closing hour of polls. I only know closing time of the North Dakota caucus which is a simple go in and vote caucus. All times are Central.

6:00 PM Closing

Georgia Primary Leans Obama

7:00 PM Closing

Alabama Primary Leans Clinton

Connecticut Primary Toss Up

Delaware Primary No clue

Illinois Primary Strong Obama

Massachusetts Primary Leans Clinton/Toss Up

Missouri Primary Leans Clinton/Toss up

New Jersey Primary Leans Clinton

Oklahoma Primary Leans Clinton supposedly but really no clue

Tennessee Primary Leans Clinton

7:30 PM Closing

Arkansas Primary Strong Clinton

8:00 PM Closing

Arizona Primary Toss Up I guess

North Dakota Caucuses No clue

New York Primary Strong Clinton

9:00 PM Closing

Utah Primary No clue

10:00 PM Closing

California Primary Leans Clinton/Toss Up

Caucuses without clear closing time

Alaska Caucuses No clue

Colorado Caucuses Maybe Obama

Idaho Caucuses No clue/Maybe Obama

Kansas Caucuses No clue/Maybe Obama

Minnesota Caucuses No clue

New Mexico Caucuses No clue/Maybe Clinton

Not very illuminating, is it. I've tried to follow what polls are available, but they are all over the place. Go to pollster.com and check for yourself. Many states have one poll from sources I don't know or with no knowledge how they screen for "likely voters." The only poll out from Minnesota didn't even try to screen for likely voters. This is part of the reason the news media has focused on national surveys. The other reason is that those polls show the race closing and that excites we political geeks and our brothers and sisters in the news media. National polls, however, don't translate into individual state results. Obama is gaining support, but where? Which states will he be able to pull away from her? I have no clue. The only states I am convinced about among the above are the few I've marked as "strong" for one or the other. The "maybe" designation is based only on what I've picked up from folks in those states or where one or the other candidate has gone without the other making an appearance.

Political results are frequently judged by perception over reality. I'll watch the coverage not just for who wins what states or how the delegates get divided. I'll watch for what the meme will be for the stories the next day and the next on who "won." Right now, I would say that unless Hillary is showing very strongly or Obama is shocking the world with wins in unexpected places like New Jersey and Tennessee, then whoever wins California will be declared the "winner." It will be the last big state to close and may not be decided until after midnight my time. The later it gets the more it may affect the news media spin. With 6 states to follow over the next week, the impact could be significant. I still expect a clear "expected nominee" within the next month. Given my prediction history so far this month, however, please don't use my supposed expertise for any actually betting.