Missouri Wins

Supersized Super Tuesday is all but over (New Mexico is being slow) and on the Democratic side the night was a virtual tie. Obama won more states (13 as of this writing), but Hillary got the big prize of California. But if you want to understand where the contest is you just need to follow Missouri.

Only a couple of weeks ago, Hillary had a clear lead in Missouri. Pollster.com lists a poll done by the St. Louis Post Dispatch on January 21 - 24 showing Hillary with a 13 point lead in Missouri. Tonight in a classic Missouri squeaker, Obama scored a victory in Missouri by about 8000 votes. Obama turned around the state in about 2 1/2 weeks. As a bellwether state, Missouri is always a state to watch and it may be showing how the Democratic race is changing as we continue. Overall, Hillary won states where she worked the hardest and Obama did the same. Missouri was one state where they put in roughly equal effort of money and candidate time.
Obama used surrogates over the last week in California. He went to Missouri. The ad dollars, I am not sure about, but I had seen earlier that she had considerably more ads than he did in California while he ran slightly more in Missouri. I don't know if that is accurate, but my point is that where they most directly competing he overtook her big lead. Is this where Democrats are heading? The Clinton surrogates on TV tonight are arguing that she stopped his momentum. Obama's people are saying that his results should be seen in the light of where the polls had it before Iowa. Which is right may depend on the states that follow in the next week. Can Obama continue to dominate caucus states? There are 3 caucus states on the 9th and 10th. Who will take the primaries in Louisiana on the 9th and Virginia and Maryland on the 12th? I'll go out on a limb and give DC to Obama on the 12th.

You'll be seeing lots of delegate estimates on Wednesday, but the results in another week may show it better. Plus, I still await changes in news media spin. So far "tie" or "split" are the words being used the most, but new polls will affect who is seen as having "momentum." I still expect this to be settled well before the convention, but now more states get a say and the candidates continue to refine their message and their ads which should help whomever gets the nomination.

On the Republican side, McCain looks to be on his way to the nomination but has work to do to solidify the base. He is getting the boost from the Republican winner take all states like Missouri even when he just takes 1/3 of the vote. He will root for Hillary to be the Democratic nominee and have the ridiculous Clinton hatred among Republicans unify the party.

It is now 1:45 am so I quit and just hope this makes some sense.