Can't Win for Losing

My predictions for tonight's primaries are a split with Ohio and Rhode Island for Clinton and Texas and Vermont for Obama. The delegate count won't change much but Clinton folks will claim victory and their intention to continue.

That's tonight. What happens as March continues and the stories mount on the difficulty of catching Obama in pledged delegates (more here) and more of the establishment Democrats want to finish off the process and move ahead? Hillary Clinton has been put into a substantial hole since Feb. 5th and there just aren't many changes left to play catch up. Even if she wins the Texas popular vote in the primary part of their process, she could still end up with fewer delegates than Obama in the state due to the caucus part. Even if she wins Ohio by 5% she'll not add many delegates given the Democrats proportional system. In the phrase of my Missouri youth, she can't win for losing.

This is her own fault. Her campaign went for the early knockout on Feb. 5th and didn't get it. She went for big states and ignored too many places where he has racked up votes and delegates. She had no plan to try to hold significant numbers of African American voters and didn't seem to expect his appeal among white male voters at all. She has relied on her base to get her this far and they might get her 3 victories tonight, but they can't get her the nomination. She needs an intervention.

The intervention she wants is a Obama tumble on the basis of something, they don't care what, that turns him into a damaged candidate who is no longer seen as viable in November. If that miracle occurs, the superdelegates return to her and the nomination can be hers. Here's the catch. She can't create the damage. If she is seen as going so negative with no goal but to destroy Obama it may blow up in her face.

The intervention that is more likely are of various Democratic establishment types contacting her campaign and reaching out to her through the media to tell her to figure out a way to bow out gracefully. Hillary Clinton's role as leader in the Democratic party will not end with a loss in this presidential primary season. She can be a senator from New York as long she likes and can turn that role in a very powerful position for years to come.

I don't buy those who claim a Clinton will cling to the campaign forever. Hillary Clinton is an extremely intelligent woman and has shown herself to have above average political acumen. She doesn't have Bill's excellent ear to the public, but she is a much better campaigner than I thought she would be. If Obama had decided to skip this race, she would have cruised but he is there and he has done so well to date that she needs more than close victories on one night in March.