Hottest Ticket in Grand Forks Since CherThis Friday the North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party will have its state convention. Usually this events interest about 500 of the 1000 Democrats who attend. This year, however,
both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are speaking at the convention. According to the
Grand Forks Herald, the Alerus Center (an indoor football stadium/event center) is expecting about 16,000 people. This is the biggest crowd in the Alerus since "Cher packed the house with about 20,000 in 2002." It is the biggest political event in North Dakota in decades.
Sen. Obama's attendance is not a surprise. He
won the state's caucus by a wide margin and has been endorsed by the entire congressional delegation who are 3 of the 6 superdelegates from the state who have declared for Obama. There is only one undeclared. His appearance includes a reception with those willing to pay $100 for the privilege. It should be an excellent fundraiser for the state party. The surprise was when Sen. Clinton followed his acceptance of the invitation to attend with one of her own about 5 days later. This has set off
great speculation on why she's following him to a state where she lost and, honestly, isn't very popular even among Democrats. Plus, she is going to follow Obama by about an hour on Friday evening and if significant numbers of folks leave after Obama speaks it will look very bad.
So, what' s my speculation? I'll go with the idea that she is doing this with an eye on the national media attention this unusual visit will get and is also acting with an eye to November. The latter, however, is not about North Dakota, instead her eye is on neighboring Minnesota. This will be the first re-visit to a state whose vote has passed for any reason besides fundraising for either candidate. If only Obama was coming, it would get some attention and, perhaps, Clinton did not want to let him have the spotlight alone. Of course, now it will get much more attention since events where both candidates appear are rare. Plus, North Dakota media bleeds into Minnesota which is a battleground state in November. The Democratic nominee wants Minnesota in November and the time before the Pennsylvania primary makes it easy to make a quick stop in Grand Forks. Again, with both of them attending I think Twin Cities media and South Dakota (a late primary state) will also be in attendance. For Hillary, this is free media in a time of tighter money and a chance to say "I may have lost in North Dakota (and Minnesota), but I still want your support if I'm the nominee."
There are a few, slightly delusional, Obama supporters in North Dakota who think he can make the state competitive. I doubt that. (I believe the last Democrat to carry North Dakota was FDR.) But given his support for expanding the party, coming to North Dakota is a sign that the small states he has won won't be forgotten. One of his arguments to the remaining undeclared superdelegates is that he is better for "down ballot" races in states that have been tough for Democrats. His ability to draw in a place like Grand Forks is another sign of the possibility of expanding the vote in ways that could make that prediction come true. The 16,000 number is only slightly higher than the 15,000 that was expected with just him. Clinton is not seen as substantially expanding the attendance. For the North Dakota Democrats it is all gravy.
Whatever the reasons for either candidate, it will be quite an evening in
a city that most of the country last saw in 1997 when a fire igniting during the middle of the biggest flood in a century.
I am within driving distance and intend to be there. I'll try to post my report on the event on Saturday.
