Why?

Why is it after every campus or school shooting, the response ranges from providing more guns for everyone to having us all constantly under camera surveillance? These tragedies are so often an example of how much easier it is for someone in this country to get guns than to get adequate mental health treatment. Can we please address that problem?

I'll tell you about Albuquerque tomorrow unless work bogs me down.

Hello from Albuquerque

I am in Albuquerque attending a conference and dropped in to say "hi" to my vast number of readers. This isn't a political science conference. It is a popular/American culture conference where I am presenting a project with a computer science professor about memes and political blogs. It will be very different for me, but it will be fun.

Albuquerque's downtown is not really bustling, but I did go to a Brazilian Grille restaurant that was recommended to me and it was fantastic. For $11.95 I got a tremendous salad bar, plus my choice of whatever meat, etc. that I wanted from a server bring in it over on skewers. Since I hadn't eaten since breakfast at the Minneapolis airport, I splurged. I had a fried banana, which is better than it sounds since it wasn't state fair food. I had roasted pineapple with some sort of glaze on it. I had sirloin. I had fish. I had what must be Brazilian bbq. I didn't catch the names, but if you are interested go to Tucanos website (no link as it is not currently working) and see for yourself. I highly recommend it, if you are ever in Albuquerque.

Now that I am stuffed and sleepy from heading to the airport at 5:30 in the morning, I am going to spend the evening lounging in my hotel room. I'll watch the sun change the colors on the mountains in the distance. I'll watch Obama sweep through Virginia, Maryland and DC. I'll probably be asleep early.

The panels start at 10 am and I'm heading for one on law and the Internet. Later in the day I'll head for a panel featuring presentations on online TV show fans and the depiction of war on TV. I am going to get my education expanded over the rest of the week. This is an academic conference so this is overwhelmingly professors talking TV, sci-fi/fantasy, native American culture, Shakespeare, feminism, theater, gaming and Will Rogers. We revel in our geekdom this week.

Missouri Wins

Supersized Super Tuesday is all but over (New Mexico is being slow) and on the Democratic side the night was a virtual tie. Obama won more states (13 as of this writing), but Hillary got the big prize of California. But if you want to understand where the contest is you just need to follow Missouri.

Only a couple of weeks ago, Hillary had a clear lead in Missouri. Pollster.com lists a poll done by the St. Louis Post Dispatch on January 21 - 24 showing Hillary with a 13 point lead in Missouri. Tonight in a classic Missouri squeaker, Obama scored a victory in Missouri by about 8000 votes. Obama turned around the state in about 2 1/2 weeks. As a bellwether state, Missouri is always a state to watch and it may be showing how the Democratic race is changing as we continue. Overall, Hillary won states where she worked the hardest and Obama did the same. Missouri was one state where they put in roughly equal effort of money and candidate time.
Obama used surrogates over the last week in California. He went to Missouri. The ad dollars, I am not sure about, but I had seen earlier that she had considerably more ads than he did in California while he ran slightly more in Missouri. I don't know if that is accurate, but my point is that where they most directly competing he overtook her big lead. Is this where Democrats are heading? The Clinton surrogates on TV tonight are arguing that she stopped his momentum. Obama's people are saying that his results should be seen in the light of where the polls had it before Iowa. Which is right may depend on the states that follow in the next week. Can Obama continue to dominate caucus states? There are 3 caucus states on the 9th and 10th. Who will take the primaries in Louisiana on the 9th and Virginia and Maryland on the 12th? I'll go out on a limb and give DC to Obama on the 12th.

You'll be seeing lots of delegate estimates on Wednesday, but the results in another week may show it better. Plus, I still await changes in news media spin. So far "tie" or "split" are the words being used the most, but new polls will affect who is seen as having "momentum." I still expect this to be settled well before the convention, but now more states get a say and the candidates continue to refine their message and their ads which should help whomever gets the nomination.

On the Republican side, McCain looks to be on his way to the nomination but has work to do to solidify the base. He is getting the boost from the Republican winner take all states like Missouri even when he just takes 1/3 of the vote. He will root for Hillary to be the Democratic nominee and have the ridiculous Clinton hatred among Republicans unify the party.

It is now 1:45 am so I quit and just hope this makes some sense.

Clueless

The title is not a reference to my Super Bowl prediction. I had much better information for that then I do for this post. The title refers to how I feel going into Supersized Super Tuesday on who will do what in the Democratic race. Earlier today I made myself a chart to look at the contests and declared my views on who has leading going into election day. Please note all the "no clue" comments. I'll give an overview at the end.

States listed alphabetically under closing hour of polls. I only know closing time of the North Dakota caucus which is a simple go in and vote caucus. All times are Central.

6:00 PM Closing

Georgia Primary Leans Obama

7:00 PM Closing

Alabama Primary Leans Clinton

Connecticut Primary Toss Up

Delaware Primary No clue

Illinois Primary Strong Obama

Massachusetts Primary Leans Clinton/Toss Up

Missouri Primary Leans Clinton/Toss up

New Jersey Primary Leans Clinton

Oklahoma Primary Leans Clinton supposedly but really no clue

Tennessee Primary Leans Clinton

7:30 PM Closing

Arkansas Primary Strong Clinton

8:00 PM Closing

Arizona Primary Toss Up I guess

North Dakota Caucuses No clue

New York Primary Strong Clinton

9:00 PM Closing

Utah Primary No clue

10:00 PM Closing

California Primary Leans Clinton/Toss Up

Caucuses without clear closing time

Alaska Caucuses No clue

Colorado Caucuses Maybe Obama

Idaho Caucuses No clue/Maybe Obama

Kansas Caucuses No clue/Maybe Obama

Minnesota Caucuses No clue

New Mexico Caucuses No clue/Maybe Clinton

Not very illuminating, is it. I've tried to follow what polls are available, but they are all over the place. Go to pollster.com and check for yourself. Many states have one poll from sources I don't know or with no knowledge how they screen for "likely voters." The only poll out from Minnesota didn't even try to screen for likely voters. This is part of the reason the news media has focused on national surveys. The other reason is that those polls show the race closing and that excites we political geeks and our brothers and sisters in the news media. National polls, however, don't translate into individual state results. Obama is gaining support, but where? Which states will he be able to pull away from her? I have no clue. The only states I am convinced about among the above are the few I've marked as "strong" for one or the other. The "maybe" designation is based only on what I've picked up from folks in those states or where one or the other candidate has gone without the other making an appearance.

Political results are frequently judged by perception over reality. I'll watch the coverage not just for who wins what states or how the delegates get divided. I'll watch for what the meme will be for the stories the next day and the next on who "won." Right now, I would say that unless Hillary is showing very strongly or Obama is shocking the world with wins in unexpected places like New Jersey and Tennessee, then whoever wins California will be declared the "winner." It will be the last big state to close and may not be decided until after midnight my time. The later it gets the more it may affect the news media spin. With 6 states to follow over the next week, the impact could be significant. I still expect a clear "expected nominee" within the next month. Given my prediction history so far this month, however, please don't use my supposed expertise for any actually betting.

Super Bowl Sunday

I know I have watched every Super Bowl since Super Bowl IV in January 1970. I may have watched the first 3, but my memory only begins with my beloved Chiefs' win over the
Vikings in Super Bowl IV. It was the last game played by an AFL team as the two leagues merged the next season. It solidified AFL teams as equals. No one could call the Jets win of the year before as a fluke after the Chiefs won 23 -7. In those days the game started in mid-afternoon. I remember thinking it took forever to get the game started and I'm sure I drove my parents and siblings to distraction that day. It was the greatest day in my first 7 years on the planet.

It's been a long time since the Chiefs glory days, but I still follow them intently and love watching all the football I can on fall weekends. I own a satellite dish largely because it allows me to get the NFL package and see all the games. Now I even pay for the HD package. HD is most noticeable in sports broadcasts and nature shows. The average sitcom is not much different on HD. This will be my first Super Bowl with HD and I am hoping the extra camera work the game has will be even more fun with HD.

This will be the 10th year of my Super Bowl Party. I am not someone who is big on parties, especially organizing them myself. However, 10 years ago I just couldn't face the Packers/Broncos game without help. So I invited several friends to join me. Nothing spectacular. I provide the drinks and a few snacks. They bring other food and we watch the game, talk and just have a good time. My house confines the number to 6 or 7 people each year, but I am happy to say that everyone seems to look forward to the party. I tell them that it'll be an annual event until my Chiefs get back to the game. On that day, just like when I was 7, you'll not really want to be around me. Until then I'll have my little party and enjoy sharing the game with a few friends.

I'll be rooting for the Patriots to finish their undefeated season. I will do this for two reasons: 1) I want to see history and hope we get a better game than when the Dolphins did it in 1972. That was a really boring game even though it was close with a final of 14-7. 2)The 1972 Dolphins have irritated all of us long enough on how great they were. They were undefeated, but they weren't even the best team of that decade much less of all time. Since 1985 they've made a bit too much of how they celebrate the loss of the last undefeated team. They need to share the distinction of being undefeated and learn a bit of humility and sportsmanship after all these years.

Oh yeah, New England's a better team than the Giants and I don't think they'll blow perfection now.

Now I will make my annual attempt to name all the Super Bowl winners in order. I am usually good until the late 1980's when I seemed to have stopped wanting to remember much until the late 1990's. It overlaps with my years living in Texas, so I'll blame it on that state affecting my mind. You can check my effort on Superbowl.com to see how I did. You'll have to trust me when I post the update on my score after checking on my work myself.

I Packers over Chiefs
II Packers over Raiders
III Jets over Baltimore Colts
IV Chiefs over Vikings
V Baltimore Colts over Cowboys
VI Cowboys over Dolphins
VII Dolphins over Redskins
VIII Dolphins over Vikings
IX Steelers over Vikings
X Steelers over Cowboys
XI Oakland Raiders over Vikings
XII Cowboys over Broncos
XIII Steelers over Cowboys
XIV Steelers over LA Rams
XV Oakland Raiders over Eagles
XVI 49ers over Bengals
XVII Redskins over Dolphins
XVIII LA Raiders over Redskins
XIX 49ers over Dolphins
XX Bears over Patriots
XXI Giants over Broncos
XXII Redskins over Broncos
XXIII 49ers over Bengals
XXIV 49ers over Broncos
XXV Giants over Bills
XXVI Redskins over Bills
XXVII Cowboys over Bills
XXVIII Cowboys over Bills
XXIX 49ers over Chargers
XXX Cowboys over Steelers
XXXI Packers over Patriots
XXXII Broncos over Packers
XXXIII Broncos over Falcons
XXXV Ravens over Giants
XXXIV St. Louis Rams over Titans
XXXVI Patriots over St. Louis Rams
XXXVII Bucs over Oakland Raiders
XXXVIII Patriots over Carolina
XXXIX Patriots over Eagles
XL Steelers over Seahawks
XLI Indianapolis Colts over Bears

I think I've gotten the winners, but not sure about a couple of the losers. I'll be back after I check the official list.

Update: I mixed up Super Bowl XI and XII. I'll blame that on not wanting to remember when the Raiders finally won a Super Bowl. Lots of mistakes beginning in late 1980s so I've put all my corrected answers in blue. My errors seem to be correlated with AFC West teams. I want to forget the first time any of them got to the big game and want the Broncos to have lost more than they actually did.