Hillary, Elvis, Joe and the Beatles

I know the title makes no sense, but it has all the points I want to cover about the Democratic Convention.

First, Hillary did her job on Tuesday. She played to all those who could be swayed. Anyone left among her voters who won't vote for Obama are probably voters he could never get and some she wouldn't have kept. The unhappy Hillary voters were an overblown story by 15,000 journalists searching for conflict to cover. The Democrats are very united this year and Hillary and Bill did their jobs in keeping them that way.

Speaking of Bill, I think I have figured out his resistance to Obama. Bill is Elvis in 1964. He's been around awhile and been the "Big Dog" in the Democratic Party for more than a decade. But now times have changed and the Democratic Party has changed. When the Beatles hit the charts in 1964, Elvis didn't get what the attraction was. He had been usurped and he didn't like it. Bill has been usurped as well and he thought he had a way to extend his influence -- Hillary as president. Instead, he faces a very different sound from a new voice. He will do his duty as a Democrat and and support the ticket as much as he is asked to do so. However, he will never get why his voice is no longer the most attractive to listeners.

Joe Biden enjoyed this convention more than just about anyone else. Every time he was seen, there was a smile and he was hugging everyone he could. After a long career, he has a chance to step into a role in the executive branch. The Vice-Presidency wasn't his goal, but the opportunity is too good to decline. I found Obama's choice of Biden interesting for one reason...
Obama chose someone widely recognized to be as smart as he is. Sure, the choice bucks up the national security resume of the ticket and is a fairly "safe" choice from the guy expected to win. However, he also chose someone who will challenge his views. It is real hard not to see Biden being heard from in an Obama Administration. Joe has a way of insisting on being heard even when you wish he'd shut up. He, like Palin, won't decide the election, but he is a reassuring choice for those with doubts about Obama.

As for the nominee, Barack Obama once again demonstrated that he is the best political speaker of my lifetime. He also recognizes what the general election against the Republicans will require. His speech last night laid out a theme for the campaign (change we need); what's wrong with the opposition (Eight is Enough); his specific proposals (none of them new to his supporters but they weren't the audience he was aiming for); and demonstrated he can throw the needed punches back at the Republican attack machine. The most impressive part for me wasn't any phrase or theme. The most impressive part was that in a stadium filled with 84,000 fired up supporters; he had them listening in silence when he wanted. It was a master at work. The weak McCain campaign response released to the media after the speech, was a sign that they were unprepared for his exceptional performance.

Nods also go to his staging crew. As with event after event I've seen through the campaign, the Obama people know how to put on show that plays well on TV. All the talk of the setting being "too big" and fears of how a speech sounds in a football stadium were nonsense. They built a set and positioned cameras to give the images that fit perfectly into a TV screen, particularly in HD. There was even a flag that seemed to flutter at just the right times behind Obama. He wasn't a lonely figure on a stand amongst a mass of people. He was able to reach right out through the camera to the 38 million plus viewers, which included many who were measuring him for the presidency for the first time.

Yes, the Palin surprise keeps his story from playing heavily nationally for another day, but his campaign will manage. After hearing for weeks of "what they have to do at the convention" and then seeing the campaign surpassing the best expectations of the most optimistic Democrats, I think these folks know what they are doing and the Alaska Governor under investigation won't be much of hindrance.

Desperate Much? (Updated)


I'll blog on the Democratic Convention and Obama's fantastic speech later today. I'm too distracted now by McCain's choice for Vice-President.

Until the info pours out more on Gov. Sarah Palin today, the only thing I have ever heard about her is that she is in the midst of an investigation of the firing of her ex-brother-in-law, a state trooper. (See Update below for correction on this.) It is known that an aide in the governor's office called the Public Safety Commissioner about the trooper before the firing. The Public Safety Commissioner is gone, but the investigation continues and the question that is open is did she have the aide do this as a vengeful act.

It appears the social conservatives will love her so the convention delegates in St. Paul will be happy, but this only makes the pick look like it is from a troubled campaign. A candidate who thinks he is losing and needs a big splash makes this pick. A candidate who fears that part of his base is abandoning him makes his pick. The candidate who makes this pick has just stepped on his main selling point against his opponent -- experience. You can't emphasize the lack of experience of your opponent when you have put a governor of less than 2 years with no foreign policy experience at all a heartbeat a way from the presidency.

When I first heard this name, I thought for sure it was a feignt. By tonight the phrase "Trooper Gate" will be around the news media. I'm curious to see how the media frames the pick. Will it be "daring" or will "desperate" or "risky" rule the day. I fully expect the Democrats to think they just got a gift from McCain.

Update: It seems it was the firing of the Public Safety Commissioner that is under investigation. He (if I have this right now) didn't fire the brother-in-law and then the Governor fired him claiming she "wanted to take the Department of Public Safety in a different, more energetic direction. She replaced him with Chuck Kopp, the former Kenai police chief. But Kopp resigned Friday over questions about a reprimand he received after a sexual harassment complaint lodged against him in Kenai." Quite a reformer, isn't she.

Dems Finally Have Some Fun

After suffering through the frustration of having their nominee being attacked as too popular, too skinny and somehow strange for vacationing in Hawaii, the Dems have had a day of fun. John McCain's lifestyle as one of the rich and famous is laid bare as he fails to be able answer how many houses he and his wife own. For today and perhaps tomorrow, those Dems who had begun to worry about their candidate's rapid response and ability to attack can rest easy. The Obama campaign is playing this for all it's worth with a very fast ad and a lineup of surrogates in 16 states to continue the attack and keep the traditional and internet media focused on the wealth of the McCain's. Bloggers are spreading the idea of keys to be noisily jangled in Denver starting on Monday.

Such trivia does matter when it allows campaigns to frame issues in a light favorable to their view and when it contributes to the effort to influence the image of the opponent. The sad counter to this fun is that important news was made today. The Iraqis have gotten the Bush Administration to go for a timetable for the withdrawl of US troops. It turns it out that what the US Congress could not accomplish the Iraqi government could. They want us out in 2011.

The Democrats could and should be crowing over how the Bushies now follow their lead in foreign policy, but the deal's not quite done and it is so much easier to show pictures of the McCain's "ranch" from The Architectural Digest.

Personally, I mostly enjoyed how the story beat back some of the rambant VP speculation. It was getting very tiring.

God Bless Alan Abramowitz

During the "dog days of summer" of an election year, filling 24-hour news networks and political blogs leads to extreme reactions to nothing. In political science we speak of "noise" in data, particularly polling data. And it is our duty as political scientists to bring a bit of sanity to it all. Today the job was done by Alan Abramowitz from Emory University via The Huntingtonpost.com.

Go watch baseball; go fishing; go to a movie; or go find Brett Favre a team. The real political race resumes on August 28 when Barack Obama gives his convention speech to impossibly high expectations. All before that, including VP picks, is very, very unlikely to matter in November. And I include Paris Hilton's greatest contribution to society.