Probably Last Blog for Tonight

Brain is beginning to fade. My predictions for Obama look a little modest. I'll watch more but comments in head too hard to translate into complete thoughts so blogging will end. It has been a great night so far. I have hope for more to greatness to come.

I Now Have Happy Tears

VICTORY

Barack Obama will be President of the United States.

255

That is my current count for Obama in the Electoral College. I'm waiting for a 2nd network to call New Hampshire for Obama and Indiana continues to look very good for Obama.

Early Results

Indiana is close, but county level data is very good for Obama. Virginia also "too early to call." If Virginia goes to Obama and Pennsylvania follows then this is already almost over.

Hints

Talking heads on CNN and MSNBC are dropping big hints that they expect a very good night for Obama.

First projections of Vermont for Obama and, finally, Kentucky for McCain. Won't call S. Carolina yet. All the rest are battleground states.

5:36 and the Networks are Being Slow

I thought the networks would be slow to call any swing state, so I'm not surprised that Indiana isn't being called at all. That's particularly true since Gary doesn't close until 6 pm.

But Kentucky! They can't call Kentucky right away. Either weirdness is happening there, which I doubt or they are all starting very cautiously.

I'm all set up. TV is on. Radio nearby. Two computers running with multiple pages open.

I do have to remember to eat something.

3 pm and I'm getting antsy

I've done a little bit of work. I've had my class. Now I've got to find things to do until polls close. I'll run a couple of errands before going home, but I have to not get out of the office to soon or I'll just pace in my house.

No real news yet. Are lots of local and national stories on poll workers being amazed by the number of "young voters" at the polls. More students around here wearing "I voted" buttons than I've ever seen. Be aware that it may be that the percentage of young voters (18-25 or 30) may not grow a lot even if their turnout at a much higher rate. This happened in 2004 when the overall electorate increased. Actual numbers on that won't be out for awhile. All we'll have is the guestimates from exit polls.

Listen to Truett and Go Vote

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svhq4C9HhUg

Election Day 10 AM

I've been to a 7:30 am meeting and am now pouring over whatever passes as "news" this early on election day. I have dressed appropriately. My Obama t-shirt is covered by a "VOTE" sweatshirt and my cap says "Vote or Die." The sign on my door asks, "Have you voted? Do it Dammit. It's only the country at stake."

I'll occupy myself with work and try not to obsess until there are actual results to obsess about. I'll post fun or informative stuff as I find them. I once again recommend 538.c0m.

Landslide Begins

Dixville Notch, New Hampshire goes for Obama 15 to 6. First time, a Democratic has won the hamlet's early vote.

I plan to blog throughout election day, in part to help me vent while I wait for the results. It should be amusing.

Election Predictions

I'm watching Monday Night Football to see who will win the presidential election tomorrow. You see, the story goes that if the Washington Redskins win their last home game before the election, the incumbent party keeps the White House. If they lose, the incumbent party loses. This has held from 1936 -2000. 2004 blew the streak. We await the football prediction as the 4th Quarter begins with the Pittsburgh Steelers leading 16-6.

There are lots of such predictions. The taller candidate tends to win. I've seen Halloween masks used. The Weekly Reader poll of grade school kids is also often cited. This year all those indicators see Obama winning, just like the polling data. Even the choice of the "alien" from the Weekly World News, is a favorite indicator. Obama was endorsed by the "alien" in August, but a shocking development occurred on Halloween when the "alien" switched to McCain. However, the Weekly World News indicates this may involve sexual bribery. I await a full expose by the New York Times.

I won't use any of these for my predictions. You may mock me as you wish when it is all over. I have no fancy model like 538.com or years of polling experience like pollster.com. I've got my experience as a political scientist and a political junkie. The latter means I've obsessed over all the information I can get access to for months. The former means that when I calm down from information overload, I can do a much better job analyzing that information than most of the blowhards you'll see on TV.

With that in mind, here are my official predictions:

Obama wins (such a daring call). Popular vote 52% to 47% with 1% going to Nader, Paul, Mickey Mouse, etc. I may be generous to McCain here because you have to search for polls where he even makes 46%, but I'll stay cautious. I'll be more daring with the Electoral College and put it at 347 to 191. This is Obama winning all the states Kerry won in 2004 plus Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and North Dakota. I am confident of all the states through Virginia. I am saying Missouri goes with the winner once again and Florida and North Carolina are won by Obama's ground game. I added North Dakota just because it is fun to dream that the polls showing an Obama lead are true. McCain's been living in Ohio so I kept it from being even a bigger blowout. I also can't bring myself to have Indiana vote for the Democrat. That's too much change for me to handle just now.

Building on reviews from Charlie Cook who follows the US House races in detail, I'll say the Democrats add 25 more seats to their majority. Personally, I'll be watching a couple of seats in my home state of Missouri and rooting for the defeat of the hideous Michelle Bachmann in Minnesota. The story in the link is not the first time Bachmann has spouted ridiculous rightwing nonsense. She first gained attention for ranting about schoolkids going to see Harry Potter.

I pay much closer attention to the Senate. Here I'll predict a sure pickup of 7 Senate seats for the Democrats. Five are easy to pretty easy: Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire and Alaska. Looking likely are Oregon and North Carolina. Dole's campaign in North Carolina rivals McCain's for worst of the year. There is a possible 8th in Minnesota, but that race is so screwy I refuse to make an official pick. Two other races I'll watch are Georgia and Kentucky. Georgia has the despicable Saxby Chambliss who ran ads 6 years ago comparing his opponent, a disabled Vietnam vet, to Saddam Hussein. McConnell is the incument in Kentucky, and I just don't like him. Both of these are real longshots, but there is no cost in dreaming.

There they are. I put them into the ether of the Internet for all to see. Okay, for the 5 or 6 people who actually read this blog to see.

Update: It is final: Steelers 23 Redskins 6. Obama wins!