The Week After...Changing Obsessions

It is almost a week since the Great Democratic Electoral Triumph of 2006. (Best cartoon seen on it is once again by Toles.) I've read tons of initial analysis some of which wasn't even spin. I attended a professional political science conference with some insight into results as we can see them so far. No special insights from me beyond one observation I haven't seen. Will this election mean that Republicans will push W to get out of Iraq by 2008? No matter how that is answered, I do warn everyone that 2008 will not be a rerun of 2006.

I am now fully emerged from electoral obsession and returning to more ordinary pursuits.

What will they be? Some work needs to be done as my sabbatical plays out its last too months. In the upper Midwest you have to use these nicer days to make sure all is ready for our long, cold winters. I have birthday and Christmas shopping to complete. Plus, I'll switch my obsessive tendencies more toward my first love...football.

Before I knew what the word politics meant. Before I knew my own address, I was a football fan. My sister claims that when I was 2 or 3 I passed the TV with a football game on and stopped. It was over. I was hooked. I have no idea if this story is true, but I have no conscious memory of becoming a football fan. As far as I know I was born a fan. Yep, pre-programmed as a heterosexual female football fan. I've never been normal. There is a reason I've spent most of my days since the age of 5 in state institutional settings.

We are entering some of the best weekends of football with key college and pro games. I will watch a lot of them. I have a satellite dish mostly because of the NFL package. I had suffered enough watching whatever was the "local option" wherever I happened to be at the time. I don't enjoy trying to watch my favorite team at a sports bar. When I bought my first house I soon got DirecTV and escaped the programming decisions of others.

My first team was the Kansas City Chiefs. They were in the AFL when I started and our next two games are with old AFL rivals Oakland and Denver. Denver is the better team now and that rivalry rates a Thanksgiving night game on NFL Network. However, it is beating Oakland that still brings me the most pleasure. Let me explain with my simple rule about playing the Raiders...

Beating the Oakland Raiders is not only a good idea, it is a moral imperative.

Every true Chiefs fan understands completely. The rest of you can just wonder whose blog you've wandered into and how quickly you can get away.

Initial Day After Reaction

I was up to well after 5 am and not awake until 11 am so I'm still digesting some of the day after news.

Biggest news is Rumsfeld's resignation. I guess even the Bush White House figure he's not worth fighting over with a Democratic House and potential Democratic Senate.

I'll be spending the day checking the spin and trying to get more detailed results at the state level. I want to see if Democrats managed to get some state legislative controls with this wave. I read about a few changes last night, but want to look for more. How many states are there governor's like Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota? He is a Republican governor facing a sea of Democrats in the legislature and in the other state constitutional offices.

Political Junkie, Part 9 and about done

It is 2:27 am here. We've got a US Democratic House and I am still watching Montana to see if it gets call before I go to minimal mental operation. So what stands out to me...

1) Missouri surprises me for once by electing a Democratic female to US Senate and passing a pro-stem cell research measure. The suburban vote outdid the outstate rural vote in both of those races. In fact, the two races tracked almost exactly.

2) Virginia continues to be interesting. Will there be a recount? 2000 Florida all over again? Will Republicans pay for it if it will decide the Senate?

3) There are some US House seats that may change from current numbers as a few recounts seem likely. The Democrats look to be at +30 or better. Mostly it is Iraq, but a few adds came from corruption providing openings to Democrats. Tom Delay's district is now Democratic. God Bless America.

4) In Minnesota, the Democrats did very well in all state government elections, but couldn't take the governorship. That will be laid right at Democratic candidate Mike Hatch and his loudmouth jerk tendencies.

5) What will Bush do? Nothing in his presidency indicates he will reach out to Congress. He didn't reach out to the Republican Congress why would a man who believes in the unitary executive reach out to a Democratic House (and maybe a Senate).

No more blogging tonight. I can watch results, but brain activity too low to write very coherently.

Political Junkie, Part 8

It is 11:14 pm and Democrats have the House by what looks like a bit more than I thought and 4 seats are still out in the Senate. Democrats still need that inside straight to take the Senate as they need 3 of 4 to get to 51. I can't understand why Tennessee hasn't been called for the Republican, but I just watch. Webb (D) in VA may have pulled off a minor miracle. Missouri depends on what is left to count and Montana is still to early to say anything.

I've got about 10 websites on 2 computers running including the one I use to post this to the blog. I can't get votes counted fast enough.

Political Junkie, Part 7

Trouble with lack of ballots in Joplin, Mo. The link takes you to a Joplin newspaper site with stories of 12 precincts in a very conservative Republican part of the state running out of ballots. How does this happen in a state with some of the most intense interest in the country?

Political Junkie, Part 6

It is 5:48 and still no real results, but all the noises even from "White House sources" are of a Democratic House and the Senate a toss-up but probably still Republican. This is mostly driven by exit polls and not just those by the national news media. Both parties are running exit polls as are local/regional media for state/local races of interest for their viewers/readers.

Political Junkie, Part 5

It is 4:56 pm and this political junkie is getting desperate for real info. The little trickle of exit poll info off CNN a few minutes ago tells me little. I need the question to really interpret the results. I see no listing of priority just respondents people able to name several issues that they care about.

Need...more...info...soon......

Political Junkie, Part 4

It's 2:56 pm. I have just returned from voting and a haircut. (G0t to do some ordinary chores even if it is election day.) I was #570 at my polling place. I have no idea if that is high or low for after 2 pm in this precinct. It did remind me that one of the most dangerous things to do is predict turnout based on reports during election day. You'll frequently hear of high turnout in place or another and virtually no one showing up someplace else. It can all depend on where you are and when you check. Turnout is likely to be highest in those places with the most intense elections like Connecticut, Virginia, Minnesota and Missouri. Montana turnout could be interesting to watch as well.

Midterm elections don't do well in turnout. Below 50% and well below 50% is common if look at nationwide turnout. There will be a lot more voters in 2008 so any results tonight will not translate to anything 2 years from now for either party. In 1994, I tried to explain to a classroom of Republican leaning students that the 1994 victories for the Republicans did not mean Clinton was already dead for 1996. More and different voters show up for presidential elections and 2 years in politics is virtually a lifetime in real people years.

Be careful when you hear the early spin on expected results this afternoon. I am already seeing/hearing spin from Republicans trying to set up the standard as any results below +30 in the House and taking the Senate as a Democratic loss. If Democrats take the House by one vote, they win. If they take the Senate, even by one vote they have pulled an inside straight with weak cards to start. This is not 1994 where there were a significant number of open seats due to retirements. Democrats have to beat incumbents to take either chamber, this is very, very hard. Remember it is now routine for 95% of incumbents to win re-election in the House and it is about 80% in the Senate. Incumbency does still rule.

Political Junkie, Part 3

It's 11:42 am here and the usual stories dominate the politically tuned airways and websites. We've got voting problems. Surprise!

I routinely remind my students that the wealthiest democracy in the world hands its elections off to its most neglected and underfunded level of government -- county government. Go ahead and name one person you have voted for this year or in the past as part of your county government. I bet you can't. I can't. It's the redheaded stepchild of American governance -- always around but hopefully doesn't really matter. Our poll workers are poorly paid, minimally trained gracious citizens who do their best to handle whatever the day throws at them. Our votes are counted by machines that most of the election supervisors are clueless about. We really are lucky that the 2000 election is rare on the national level. On the local level it is a common occurrence.

This is not to claim a great conspiracy to steal your vote. This is simply a lament that the vote we claim to hold so precious is so neglected. There are no clear standards for voting machines or any public officials who can affirm their honesty. We hand that all off to private companies. There is no demand for people to get repeated and exhaustive training with pay to be poll workers and make sure technicians are available to quickly fix problems. We don't even have voting hours in most states that don't require people to rush before or after work to get a chance to vote. Oh yeah, we also let heavily partisan individuals head election boards and be a state's secretary of state and just have their promise to make decisions without partisan bias. Katherine Harris got all the attention in 2000, but in 2006 the Ohio Secretary of State who is running for Governor at one point said he would decide if his opponent was qualified to be on the ballot based on some obscure rule or another.

Yep, that's American voting. We could go to 24 hour voting. We could have a specific revenue from all levels of governance dedicated to paying for our voting needs. We won't, but we could. Two days after the votes are in everyone goes back to the their lives and forget voting. Only political junkies like me and the glorious folks at organizations such as The League of Women Voters continue to care and try to get attention. But it is county government and nobody cares.

So as you hear of voting problems today, don't automatically assume that it is an attack by one party of the other on your right to vote. It is most likely the result of our collective negligence. Pay more attention to stories of actual intimidation and attempts at generating frustration and confusion to keep voters from even going to the polls. These don't wait for election day. Keep an eye out. If you see something strange, speak up. If you need help, call 866-OUR-VOTE. The National Campaign for Fair Elections has lawyers familiar with every state's laws standing by to assist you.

Political Junkie, Part 2

It's 12:40 am on Election Day 2006. This political junkie is taking a last look around the Internet for the final public polls. The pollsters have stopped by now. Hopefully, the robocalls aren't keeping anyone up. Candidates and their loyalists will shake any last hand they can; make every last contact; check and re-check on whatever may be needed for the rest of today. Sleep won't be a priority. Sleep won't get you that one last vote.

I checked with a couple of fellow political scientists for their predictions on the election. One predicted a poor Democratic performance with only +8 in the House and +2 in the Senate. The other was closer to my prediction with +20 for Democrats in the House and +5 in the Senate. By the way, they both lean to Democrats so the predictions are not being driven by ideology.

These predictions are all from junkies with expertise but no claims to any political science methodology to back it up. If you want to see a real political science model, you can read a summary of Alan Abramowitz's prediction based upon his empirical model. Alan was one of my grad school professors and is an expert on voting behavior who is brave enough to publish pre-election predictions. Lots of political scientists stick to the safer course of just testing models based on past elections and avoid the prediction of anything yet to happen. Alan does both and does a good job explaining his model without getting into the minutiae of data and methods required for a academic journal.

Please vote wherever you are if you haven't done so already. Later today I'll walk to the Lutheran Church down the street from my house and cast my vote. I'll proudly wear my little "I voted" sticker though I'll pass on the offer from the local strip joint to use it get in free tomorrow night. Look for more from the junkie tomorrow and well into Wednesday morning if the election requires it.

Political Junkie, Part 1

I think I'm going to do several posts tonight and tomorrow as the election arrives. I love this stuff. I'll have two computers, a TV and the radio all on as I try to find out anything newsworthy as the votes get counted. This first post are just my final views on the "lay of the land."

It still looks favorable to the Democrats, but there aren't enough competitive elections for a really dramatic change of over 50. My view of about +20 for Democrats in the House and no more than +4 in the Senate holds. This will give the Democrats the House of Representatives by a narrow margin and given us the first female Speaker.

The really tight races include the impossible to call Missouri Senate race. Because I grew up in Missouri and have seen the state choose the lesser candidate more often than not, I am guessing (and it is purely a guess) that Talent will win. However, this one could easily go into Wednesday afternoon before a winner is declared.

Another interesting race is the Minnesota Governor's race. Incumbent Tim Pawlenty has consistently run over 50% on approval ratings throughout the year. However, in election polls he's had a very hard time getting above 45%. One of the reasons for this is the anti-Republican wave that does exist in Minnesota. Bush's approval rating is well below the national average in Minnesota and Republicans across the state have battled against that all year. Pawlenty also took hits on budget issues a year ago and this year's more amicable legislative session hasn't repaired the damage. His best hope lies in his Democratic opponent Mike Hatch.

Mike Hatch...how do I say this. He can be a loudmouth jerk at times. He is not at all strategic about blowing his top at someone. He does it repeatedly to his own detriment. The latest was last Thursday when he allegedly called a male reporter a "Republican whore." He says he thought he called him a Republican hack, but could have called him a whore. Nice job, Mike. This didn't turn voters from Hatch to Pawlenty, but liberals and moderates who are uncomfortable with Hatch have a candidate from the Independence Party to choose. The Star Tribune's tracking poll shows Saturday and Sunday results with Hatch down a bit, Pawlenty the same and "others" up two percent. This is the "is Hatch nuts" affect. The race may come down to how much strategic voting will occur. Once faced with the ballot, will voters who don't want Pawlenty stick with the Independence Party candidate or take a chance with Hatch. If they go for Hatch, look for this one to be much stronger for Hatch than expected.

Finally, I'll follow an obscure Nebraska House race. The 3rd District in Nebraska has not gone for a Democrat since sometime in the 1950s. Then comes Scott Kleeb. This guy is good. He is comfortable on camera and on horseback. He is fairly good-looking young man who seems to know his constituents. Plus, the Republicans have run a candidate in this open district who is not as strong and has been backed by the Club for Growth gang. Club for Growth supports ending ag subsidies. Not a good stance in Nebraska. Kleeb will probably lose in this first try at a heavily Republican district, but win or lose watch this guy. He's got a future in politics.

Democrats Have Nothing to Fear But Themselves

As the White House and all the members of the Republican echo chamber relive the glorious days of November 2004 by bashing John Kerry on another misstatement, what you should really watch for entertainment is how Democratic fear mounts as election day draws closer.

This is best reflected by Tom Toles

Having lost all but 3 (or 4 depending on how you count 2000) presidential elections since 1964 and having lost the Congress since 1994 (accept for briefly in 2001 when a Republican left his party), Democrats are more sure of their ability to lose than anything else. You can see this on liberal .blogs who refuse to be optimistic about next Tuesday until next Wednesday. You can see it in the all sorts of media and it is exemplified on a podcast by Joe Klein on today's Time.com entitled, "Can the Democrats Find a Way to Lose?" Whatever you think of Klein, this is how Democrats see the world. The John Kerry flashback of the past two days only strengthens their fear. They pounce on every unfavorable poll in every key race and ignore the more numerous favorable ones. They have nightmares about the Republican Get Out The Vote effort while ignoring that they didn't do badly themselves in 2004 and this year they have the more self-motivated voters. Some of this is done to keep motivated those numerous folks who will be needed this last week. They'll need lots of people spending more time volunteering than at home before they can gain victory.

Will Democrats fail again? I don't see it. I am with the current conventional wisdom that says the Democrats will take the House by a small margin, but I don't see more than 4 clear Senate pickups yet. The Senate is still possible however and I'll come back to this before election day.

Did Kerry hurt them? Not really, voters know Kerry isn't on the ballot. He hurt himself more than any Democrat on the ballot next week. For some reason, Kerry's sees another presidential candidacy in his future. The past two days does hurt that dream.

The reality that is the FUBAR Iraq War will soon push Kerry back into obscurity. Today's NY Times story has as their top story on how the US military is now doing powerpoint presentations on Iraq moving toward "chaos." That's their time just see the chart that goes with the story. This the reality that has pushed Bush's polling numbers into the 30's and is dragging many Republicans down with him. I'll post on that soon as it relates to even popular Republicans like Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota.